Month: May 2024

The Bank of England has kept interest rates at a 16-year high for at least another month, as governor Andrew Bailey said Threadneedle Street would not bow to political pressure to cut rates.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), announced its latest decision at midday on Thursday, opting to keep the current rate of 5.25 per cent – set last August – in a blow to those hoping for the first reduction since 2020.

High interest rates have saddled homeowners with soaring mortgage repayment costs, and are used as a tool to help bring down inflation.

While the rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation fell to 3.2 per cent in March, experts had suggested that two key economic indicators – pay growth and services sector inflation – have remained more stubborn.

In positive news, the Bank improved its forecasts on Thursday to predict that CPI inflation would fall to 2.25 per cent next year and to 1.5 per cent in 2026, and said it expected the UK economy to grow by 0.5 per cent this year and 1 per cent in 2025 – slightly higher than previous predictions.

Key Points

• Breaking: Bank of England holds interest rates at 5.25%

• Governor Andrew Bailey says Bank will not bow to political pressure

• Inflation will fall to 1.5 per cent within two years, Bank forecasts

• Pay growth and services sector inflation remain stubborn

• Voices: Improving the economy may limit a Tory wipeout, but it won’t save Rishi Sunak

16:02 , Andy Gregory

We’re pausing updates on the liveblog for this evening, thanks for following here.

You can read our latest reporting on the Bank of England’s announcement by clicking here, or else keep scrolling to catch up on the day’s events as we reported them.

Chancellor praises ‘finely balanced’ interest rates decision

15:20 , Andy Gregory

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the Bank of England’s decision on rates was “finely balanced”.

Asked if he had been hoping rates would be cut ahead of the general election, Mr Hunt said: “I welcome the fact the Bank of England’s obviously thought about this very hard, they take this decision independently.

Story continues

“And I would much rather that they waited until they’re absolutely sure inflation is on a downward trajectory than rush into a decision that they had to reverse at a later stage.

“What we want is sustainably low interest rates, and I think what’s encouraging is that the Bank of England governor, for the first time, has expressed real optimism that we’re on that path.”

Bank of England will not wait for US Federal Reserve to cut rates, says Bailey

14:59 , Andy Gregory

The Bank of England will not wait for the US Federal Reserve to move on interest rates before it decides to cut rates in the UK.

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, said: “There is no law that the Fed has to go first. Moreover, we have a remit and a target that is related to domestic inflation in the UK.”

He added that the Bank will always “take the rest of the world into consideration”, but only in regard to how it affects domestic inflation.

“But there’s no law which says we can only move after the Fed moves. That is not something that ever gets discussed in the MPC.”

Bank of England ‘getting very close’ to first rate cut since 2020, says economist

14:41 , Andy Gregory

James Smith, ING developed markets economist, said: “The Bank of England is getting very close to its first rate cut. That much is clear from the latest policy statement which, while keeping rates on hold at 5.25%, has a distinctly more optimistic flair.

“It echoes recent comments from governor Andrew Bailey, who has been hammering home the message that the UK’s inflation outlook is quite different to the US.

“We’re still leaning slightly more towards an August start date for rate cuts, though it’s a close call. What isn’t in doubt is that the Bank is comfortable with moving ahead of the US Federal Reserve.”

Bank of England will not bow to political pressure to cut rates, says Bailey

14:22 , Andy Gregory

The Bank of England will not bow to increased pressure from politicians to cut interest rates, its governor has said.

Andrew Bailey said: “We are an independent central bank. We have a very clear remit. It’s our duty to exercise our duty at all times. When we are sitting in a room as the Monetary Policy Committee, we never discuss politics … It isn’t a consideration in that respect.”

It comes amid a period of heightened pressure from some MPs on the Bank to move faster on rate cuts in the run-up to a general election later this year.

When pressed on whether an upcoming election could influence how the Bank makes its decisions on rates, Mr Bailey added: “We will take the decisions at each meeting which are consistent with our remit. That’s our job and we will do our job.”

Inflation to fall before rising slightly before end of year, says Bank

14:04 , Andy Gregory

The Bank of England has predicted that lower oil and gas prices mean that inflation is likely to drop to around 2 per cent in the coming months before rising slightly before the end of the year.

Inflation could fall noticeably below target without rate cuts, says Bailey

13:52 , Andy Gregory

Here are more comments from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey.

He told reporter: “It’s likely that we will need to cut bank rates over the coming quarters and make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive over the forecast period, possibly more so than currently priced into market rates.

“This will be consistent with ensuring that inflation does not fall noticeably below target at the end point of the forecast.”

Pound falls against the dollar

13:35 , Andy Gregory

The pound fell against the US dollar and euro after the Bank of England signalled growing support for an interest rate cut among policymakers.

Sterling fell 0.3 per cent to $1.246 and was 0.2 per cent lower at €1.161.

Financial markets more pessimistic than Bank of England, Bailey indicates

13:17 , Andy Gregory

Andrew Bailey has indicated that the financial markets are more pessimistic about the path for lowering interest rates than the Bank of England.

“With the progress we’ve made, to make sure inflation stays around the target, it is likely that we’ll need to cut bank rates in the coming quarters, possibly more so than is currently priced into markets,” he said.

The Bank governor said the committee has “no preconceptions” about how far and how fast it can lower interest rates, and it make a judgment based on the economic data it sees before each meeting.

Visualised: How have interest rates changed over time?

12:58 , Andy Gregory

The below graph shows how interest rates have changed over the past decade:

Bank has not ruled out cutting rates next month, says governor

12:49 , Andy Gregory

The Bank of England has not ruled out cutting rates at its next Monetary Policy Committee decision.

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that upcoming economic data would be key to helping the MPC decide whether to cut rates on 20 June.

He said: “Before our next meeting in June, we will have two full sets of data – for inflation, activity and the labour market – that will help us in making that judgement afresh.

“But, let me be clear, a change in bank rate in June is neither ruled out nor a fait accompli.”

Full report: Bank of England holds base rate for ninth consecutive month

12:20 , Andy Gregory

The Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold at 5.25 per cent for the ninth month in a row.

My colleague Jane Dalton has more in this report:

Bank of England holds interest rates at 5.25% despite hopes of cut

Inflation will fall to 1.5 per cent within two years, Bank of England forecasts

12:14 , Andy Gregory

The Bank of England has projected that inflation will fall more than previously thought over the coming years – dropping below its 2 per cent target to 1.5 per cent in 2026.

Headline CPI inflation is expected to fall below the Bank’s 2 per cent target between April and June, but rise again to 2.6 per cent in the second half of this year as the impact of recent drops in energy prices fades.

In the longer term, the Bank dropped its projections for CPI inflation to 2.25 per cent for 2025 and 1.5 per cent in 2026, down 0.25 and 0.5 percentage points respectively on the Bank’s February estimates.

The projection came in the Bank’s May Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) report, which signalled optimism from recent falls in retail inflation. The report said persistently high interest rates had helped push headline inflation down.

Bailey signals optimism that Bank could soon cut rates

12:10 , Andy Gregory

Governor Andrew Bailey has signalled optimism that the Bank of England could soon cut rates.

The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of seven to two to keep rates unchanged – with members Dave Ramsden and Swati Dhingra voting to cut rates by 0.25 percentage points.

Mr Bailey said: “We’ve had encouraging news on inflation and we think it will fall close to our 2 per cent target in the next couple of months.

“We need to see more evidence that inflation will stay low before we can cut interest rates. I’m optimistic that things are moving in the right direction.”

The MPC indicated it is still looking for more progress on factors including services inflation and wage growth, which have remained persistently high at about 6 per cent, before cutting rates.

Bank of England expects economy to grow by 0.5% this year

12:08 , Andy Gregory

The Bank of England said it expects the UK economy to grow by 0.5 per cent this year and 1 per cent in 2025 – slightly higher than previous predictions.

Breaking: Bank of England holds rates at 5.25 per cent

12:01 , Andy Gregory

The Bank of England has opted to keep interest rates at a 16-year high of 5.25 per cent – confounding hopes of the first base rate cut since 2020.

We’ll bring you more updates here as we get them.

BoE chief unlikely to give clear signal on when interest rate cut could come, economist predicts

11:08 , Andy Gregory

Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey is unlikely to give a clear signal on exactly when the bank’s first interest rate cut since 2020 might come – but focus will be on what guidance he does give and if more than one member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee votes for a cut this time around, according to Pimco economist Peder Beck-Friis.

“We know from history that policy meetings may create some volatility,” Mr Beck-Friis said.

“What is also interesting is that we have come from a few years where monetary policy has been very correlated globally … but as the pandemic shocks fade I think it is natural that we see some divergence,” he added – pointing to how Sweden and Switzerland had already cut rates while the US may need to wait longer.

Pound falls against US dollar

09:23 , Andy Gregory

The pound edged lower against the US dollar this morning ahead of the Bank of England’s policy meeting, with the central bank expected to hold rates steady but flag when it intends to lower the cost of borrowing.

According to LSEG data, money markets are pricing in an almost 95 per cent chance that the Bank will hold its benchmark interest rate at 5.25 per cent – the highest since 2008. But investors will be watching for signs of when the first interest rate cut in four years will come as inflation falls.

Markets now see a 56 per cent chance of such move in June – when the European Central Bank has already signalled it will reduce borrowing costs, and a greater chance of 72 per cent of a BoE rate cut in August.

London stocks waver ahead of Bank of England announcement

08:40 , Andy Gregory

London stocks wavered this morning as investors turned cautious ahead of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision – while energy shares gave a boost to the benchmark index.

As of 7:17am, the blue-chip FTSE 100 edged up 0.1 per cent at 8,357.85, hovering below its record high of 8,365.28 points. The mid-cap FTSE 250 edged lower by 0.1 per cent.

The pound slipped against the US dollar and the UK’s benchmark 10-year gilt yield was at 4.155 per cent ahead of the decision.

Investors avoided big bets ahead of Threadneedle Street’s interest rate decision due at 11am, where the central bank is widely expected to keep borrowing costs steady.

Bank of England to shed more light on its predictions for the economy today

06:00 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

The Bank of England will shed more light on its predictions for the economy and the path of interest rates when it publishes the latest Monetary Policy Report alongside the rates decision today.

Meanwhile, the central bank in the US, the Federal Reserve, said on Wednesday it was keeping its key interest rate at the same level and noted a “lack of further progress” towards lowering inflation.

It means rates could stay higher for longer until there is firmer evidence of price rises easing, its chairman Jerome Powell suggested.

04:00 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist for Oxford Economics, said: “The data published in mid-April for services inflation and private sector regular pay growth has likely extinguished any remaining hopes of a move in May.

“Though both measures have continued to fall, progress has been slightly slower than the MPC anticipated, and they are currently running marginally higher than the forecasts published in February’s Monetary Policy Report.”

He said it is likely to be a “close call” on whether the MPC decides to cut rates in June or August.

02:00 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Higher interest rates are used as a tool to control inflation, which has fallen sharply in recent months.

The latest official figures showed that Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 3.2% in March, as it edges closer to the Bank’s 2% target.

But economists think the Bank’s policymakers will want to hold out until they are more convinced that inflationary pressures have eased.

Mapped: Which areas worst hit by mortgage rate hikes as homeowners ‘forced to move’

Thursday 9 May 2024 00:00 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Homeowners coming off fixed rate mortgages faced huge rises in their monthly payments, latest figures have revealed, with the costs severely biting into household disposable income.

With the Bank of England base rate rising to 5.25 per cent in the summer of last year, families faced soaring mortagage rates with the average two-year fixed rate reaching 6.9 per cent.

The new rates meant many homeowners, especially those with large mortgages still to pay, faced challenging increases in monthly payments.

Mapped: Areas worst hit by mortgage rate hikes as homeowners ‘forced to move’

Bank of England not yet ready to cut UK interest rates, experts say

Wednesday 8 May 2024 21:57 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

UK borrowers eager for costs to come down may have to wait a little longer before interest rates take a dip.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which sets the level of UK interest rates, will announce its latest decision on Thursday.

However, economists are widely expecting the committee to keep rates at the current level of 5.25 per cent, which it has been held at since August last year.

Bank of England not yet ready to cut UK interest rates, experts say

Wednesday 8 May 2024 19:18 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, said: “This broad direction illustrates that collectively the committee is moving gradually towards a rate cut.

“It seems unlikely though to be ready to bite the bullet just yet and the Bank rate looks set to remain on hold at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting.”

He added that it is possible that a second member of the MPC will switch to the “easing camp” and vote for a cut on Thursday.

‘Too early’ for economists to cut rates, economists predict

Wednesday 8 May 2024 17:30 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Economists think the Bank of England’s policymakers will want to hold out until they are more convinced that inflationary pressures have eased.

Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, said: “It is almost certainly too early for the Bank of England to pull the trigger on a rate cut right now, especially against the backdrop of a more hawkish US central bank.”

The US Federal Reserve said last week it was keeping its key interest rate at the same level and noted a “lack of further progress” towards lowering inflation.

It means rates could stay higher for longer until there is firmer evidence of price rises easing, the Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell suggested.

Mr Khalaf said the Bank is also likely to be influenced by the European Central Bank, which is widely expected to cut rates in early June.

“The other important factor is more inflation readings for April and May, where CPI could get very close to, or possibly even hit, the Bank’s 2% target,” he added.

“The closer the inflation dial gets to 2%, the greater the pressure on the Bank of England to take its foot off the brake and cut rates.

“Markets currently think it’s a coin toss whether we get a UK rate cut in June, but this rises to a three in four chance priced in by August.”

The housing market has turned – so what does that mean for buyers and sellers waiting to make a move?

Wednesday 8 May 2024 16:29 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

House prices are down and mortgage costs are up, writes James Moore. So how long will buyers and sellers need to wait before the market shows signs of life?

Britain’s housing market has turned hostile again, at least for sellers. The latest Nationwide index showed a surprise 0.4 per cent fall in April, the second month-on-month decline in a row.

A rival index produced by Halifax recorded a 1 per cent month-on-month fall in March, with the next update due next week. These indices can be volatile, but another fall would now be the betting favourite.

Read more here:

House prices are falling – but what does it mean for the future market?

Improving the economy may limit a Tory wipeout, but it won’t save Rishi Sunak

Wednesday 8 May 2024 15:47 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Thanks to the Liz Truss mini-Budget disaster, the Conservatives can no longer claim to be the party of economic competence, writes Andrew Grice. But an election campaign based on the economy is still their best hope of avoiding annihilation:

Improving the economy will not save Rishi Sunak

Pay growth and services sector inflation remain stubborn

Wednesday 8 May 2024 15:45 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Interest rates are used as a tool to help bring down UK inflation, which has fallen sharply from the highs hit in 2022 when energy costs spiked and the cost-of-living crisis was at its peak.

The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation fell to 3.2 per cent in March, according to the latest official figures.

But experts suggested that two key economic indicators for the Bank of England – pay growth and services sector inflation – have remained more stubborn.

Average wages continued to increase faster than the rate of inflation last month.

Bank of England not yet ready to cut UK interest rates, experts say

Wednesday 8 May 2024 15:43 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

UK borrowers eager for costs to come down may have to wait a little longer before interest rates take a dip.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which sets the level of UK interest rates, will announce its latest decision on Thursday.

However, economists are widely expecting the committee to keep rates at the current level of 5.25 per cent, which it has been held at since August last year.

This means that there could still be some time before the pressure of the cost of living begins to ease.

Bank of England not yet ready to cut UK interest rates, experts say

Source: uk.finance.yahoo.com