Housing starts declined in May on both single-family and multifamily dwellings.Credit…Kim Raff for The New York Times

June 20, 2024

Construction of new homes in the United States dropped below expectations in May as builders pull back on new residential projects largely in response to high interest rates, reinforcing concerns about stubbornly high housing prices.

Government data released on Thursday showed that new-home construction, or housing starts, fell 5.5 percent last month to an annualized rate of 1.28 million, a sign of more cracks in the already shaky housing market. Slower construction of both single-family and multifamily homes contributed to the overall drop. Building permits dipped 3.8 percent, pointing to less future construction.

This downturn in home building comes as the average rate on 30-year mortgages, the nation’s most popular home loan, has reached highs not seen in decades, though the rate dipped slightly this week to 6.87 percent, Freddie Mac reported on Thursday.

The magnitude of the decrease in construction last month underscores that high interest rates are both weakening housing demand and raising costs for builders — two dynamics that are ultimately contributing to builders’ reluctance to start projects. Home builder sentiment dropped in May to its lowest level this year before falling even further this month, suggesting relatively tepid home construction data in the coming months, Daniel Vielhaber, an economist at Nationwide, said in a statement.

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Source: nytimes.com

Apache is functioning normally

The lock-in effect that has kept U.S. housing market activity subdued probably isn’t going away this year or next year or even the year after that.

It could hang over prospective buyers and sellers of existing homes for six to eight years before finally going away, Bank of America warned in a note on Monday, locking down the market into the next decade.

“The wide gap between current mortgage rates and effective mortgage rates means most homeowners are unwilling to move unless forced,” analysts said. “Moreover we do not expect current mortgage rates to fall much even if the Fed cuts as we anticipate.”

When borrowing costs were lower during the depths of the pandemic as the Federal Reserve slashed rates to near zero, homeowners rushed to refinance, leaving U.S. households with the lowest effective mortgage rate ever on records going back to 1977, according to BofA. It has ticked up about half a percentage point from its trough, but the effective rate was still at a low 3.8% in the first quarter.

As the Fed began hiking rates in 2022 to fight inflation, current mortgage rates went higher as well. Now there’s a big gap in rates.

Earlier this month, a Realtor.com report said more than half of outstanding mortgages have an effective rate of 4% or lower, and more than three-quarters have a rate of 5% or lower. Meanwhile, the current 30-year fixed rate is still hovering around 7%.

With homeowners unwilling to give up their low effective rates, the supply of existing homes has been tight and this year’s spring selling season has been muted.

Sales of existing homes hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.14 million in April of this year, barely budging in almost 18 months, BofA noted. 

The bank sees that pace staying relatively flat in the coming years, projecting sales of 4.1 million for all of 2024, 4 million in 2025, and 4.2 million in 2026.

“The US housing market is stuck, and we are not convinced it will become unstuck anytime soon,” analysts wrote. “After a surge in housing activity during the pandemic, it has since retreated and stabilized.”

With supply still constrained and demand still elevated from the pandemic-induced shock, BofA expects home prices to jump 4.5% in 2024 and 5% in 2025, before finally cooling off with a 0.5% uptick in 2026. But prices could surge another 5% in 2026 if pandemic-related factors persist, analysts warned.

And don’t expect much help from newly constructed homes. The bank sees housing starts averaging a stable 1.4 million units in 2024, 2025, and 2026, with sales of new homes averaging 650,000 those years.

But others in the real estate sector think even a modest decline in mortgage rates could unlock a burst of housing market activity.

Earlier this month, Compass cofounder and CEO Robert Reffkin told CNBC that he would “feel good” about a 6.5% rate, “but the magic number is 5.9999.”

“That’d be marketing magic, and would tell the world that mortgage rates are at a level where they should go and grab a property,” he said.

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Source: fortune.com

Apache is functioning normally

Sarah Wheeler: Let’s talk about technology’s role in making these things easier for even smaller lenders. To that point, let’s talk about the new CFPB rule around AVMs.

Rohit Chopra: I think appraisals are such a big issue. We want to make sure, and we saw this, you know, 15, 20 years ago — the problems with overvaluation. And then we’ve also seen issues when it comes to appraisal bias and other issues of undervaluation. We really need accurate appraisals. And that’s really how the CFPB thinks about it. And of course, human appraisals and machine-driven appraisals are going to be part of the market.

So one of the things we’ve done is try to make sure that those algorithmic-based appraisals, particularly as there’s going to be advances in artificial intelligence, really have some checks on them when it comes to conflicts of interests, when it comes to bias. And I think we’ve put forward something pretty common sense to make sure that artificial intelligence and algorithms don’t just favor some people over others.

SW: I think that AVMs are one of those issues that we can really understand, common sense-wise. If you think about all of the properties that were valued during the refi boom — so many properties went through that process and we now have a lot of information on them. How does that figure into what you want to do with AVMs?

RC: I think our work on AVMs is really just about accuracy, but I think you’re asking more broadly about the role of technology and how automation is really going to be even more part of the plumbing of the mortgage system.

I think we heard a lot of concern around some of the big vendor and software technology mergers and consolidation. We always are hearing from mortgage lenders about ICE. I think there is a growing power of a lot of these big technology providers and that’s not unique to mortgage. We’re seeing that with small banks, who are very dependent on a couple of big software platforms. We see it with auto dealers. We see it in all corners of the economy.

And I think the big question is: who’s really going to benefit from automation? Are those benefits going to be broadly shared with consumers and lenders? Or is it just going to create a couple more gatekeepers who can levy a tax on every single mortgage in the country?

SW: What do you think the CFPB’s role in that is, as you see it? The ICE merger, for instance, was approved with some changes that they made — rolling out some different parts of the Black Knight universe to other companies. So what do you think the CFPB’s role in that is?

RC: Well, understanding mortgage tech is really key. And one thing I’m hoping that more in the mortgage industry can help us think through is: what is the digital future of the mortgage market? And as many of you know, the CFPB has been putting into place more rules to promote what’s known as open banking.

Open banking is the possibility of having a more frictionless and more competitive banking system for financial products. We have started that process by giving consumers the right to permission their bank account data, their transaction account data, to permission it to various types of lenders. But we’re trying to think about ways to make the mortgage system benefit from open technologies.

One of the ways we might address the issue of the price gouging on credit reports and credit scores is maybe thinking about how consumers may be able to permission their credit reporting information directly to lenders or to be able to provide their cash flow in new ways to lenders to provide for different ways of underwriting.

There’s so much of this already going on in the industry today and I think we want to make sure we’re supporting all the efforts that are helping consumers and lenders, but not just concentrating power in a couple of big technology companies.

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

HECM volume: Some major lenders buck trend

Despite the industrywide drop in volume, four of the top 10 reverse mortgage lenders in the country recorded gains in June.

Finance of America (FOA) added 4.1% to its endorsement tally to finish at 534 loans, after lagging behind Mutual of Omaha Mortgage in recent months. Guild Mortgage also posted a gain of 19.1% to 56 loans, while South River Mortgage and HighTechLending also managed positive growth in June.

When asked if the decline in case numbers could lead to a more tepid summer of originations, RMI President John Lunde said it was likely.

“From a case number perspective I don’t think we’ll see dramatic growth in endorsements this summer, but more of a sideways action in the recent range,” he said.

Each type of reverse mortgage use case also declined in June. “Equity takeout” loans — reverse mortgages that are neither purchases nor refinances — dropped by 4.8% from May. Purchases fell by 10.8%, while HECM-to-HECM refinances saw a large drop of 27.5%.

“It doesn’t surprise me that refis declined since it was likely driven primarily by the lending limit increase earlier this year, which was always a very limited opportunity without rates declining significantly,” Lunde said of the data. “Purchase is one we’re watching closely with the recently implemented tweak to closing costs that we expect to open that door more fully. Equity takeout is the most stable as the largest segment so the lower volatility in May makes perfect sense.”

When asked how four of the top 10 lenders managed to avoid decreases in their endorsement totals in June, Lunde said that geography is a key predictor of how such things can play out. Individual choices that lenders make in appealing to potential clients often dictates their own performance.

“Geographic regions are usually more aligned with overall industry trends, whereas individual lenders can create significant performance gaps purely from business decisions like marketing spend increase/decreases, prioritizing or de-emphasizing endorsements from a resource perspective, or farming attractive in-house sales niches (like forward loan officer relationships or servicing portfolios),” he said.

Geographically, the region that endured the least severe drop is the industry’s most prominent one. The Pacific/Hawaii region fell by only 2.6% to 594 loans for the month.

As FOA and Mutual of Omaha continue to battle for reverse mortgage industry supremacy, Lunde and RMI will be watching closely, he said.

“I do watch with interest as these two compete for the top spot for the foreseeable future as they are very different stories,” Lunde explained. ”Mutual of Omaha has a great brand and customer base outside of reverse that provides a tailwind while FOA has led the industry for several years in wholesale and acquired the largest lender with a particular strength in retail. We’re excited to see both challenging to be the champion.”

HMBS issuance: Moderate dip maintains historic low

As has been the case for a while, HMBS issuance remains at historically low levels, and is not expected to reach anywhere near the records set in 2022 by the time this year winds down, according to New View commentary that accompanied the data.

HMBS issuance fell by $29 million from May to a total of $497 million in June, but the same raw number of pools were issued in June as in May (86 pools). Among leading companies, FOA again claimed the top issuer spot with $159 million, a $2 million increase over May’s figure.

Longbridge Financial saw an $8 million month-over-month dip to $110 million, while Mutual of Omaha and PHH Mortgage Corp. — which will soon rebrand to Onity Mortgage — issued $95 million and $85 million in June, respectively.

When asked about the variance between the issuance levels of the top companies, New View partner Michael McCully said it doesn’t play much of a role.

“There is nothing to be read from any variance in issuance between the top four issuers; in the aggregate they have maintained a market share between 90% and 95% for years,” he said. “But, 11 issuers overall is over-capacity for an industry projecting to originate less than $6 billion in 2024.”

June’s original, first-participation production also saw a decline in June to $331 million, down from $361 million in May. Year over year, new loan production was substantially lower when looking at data from the same period in 2023, New View explained. Of the 86 pools issued in June, 24 were first-participation pools while 62 were tail pools with subsequent participations.

Changes on a monthly basis, McCully said, are largely immaterial.

“The industry is not in a good place with such low volume,” he said. “Let’s see how HMBS 2.0 affects the industry, and whether rates start to trend down more permanently.”

When asked about how New View is projecting issuance for the end of the year, McCully said it’s pretty simple to do.

“All else equal, doubling first half production gives a reasonable proxy for full year issuance,” he said.

New View also published updated HMBS issuer league tables for the first half of 2024, showing FOA with 31.9% of the overall market. It was followed by Longbridge (21.4%), Mutual of Omaha (18.4%), PHH (18%) and Traditional Mortgage Acceptance Corp. (3.6%).

Source: housingwire.com