Another Day, Another Sell-Off

Another Day, Another Sell-Off

Bonds may not have sold off in an overly excessive manner today, but they sold off nonetheless.  In other words, rates went higher.  The early culprits were twofold: a surprisingly hot Producer Price Index and some comments from Fed’s Mester on the prospect of a 50bp rate hike.  Then in the afternoon, Fed’s Bullard said similar stuff and went a step further, saying he wouldn’t rule anything out for the next meeting.  All this after Fed members spent the past 3 weeks sounding unified on “25bps is all we need.”  The sudden shift in tone spooked bonds a bit, but it’s still up to data to drive the decision.  Fed Funds Futures suggest we haven’t yet seen enough data to price in a 50bp hike.  The result is intraday volatility that gives way to moderate additional weakness.