MBS Day Ahead: Is This The Bounce We’ve Been Looking For?
Posted To: MBS Commentary
After 8 straight days with yields closing higher than they opened, bonds are starting out in stronger territory with a chance to reverse the curse. The longer those losing streaks are, the more certain we can be of seeing a corrective green day. Today has every possibility of becoming that day. In fact, as of right now, it already is. But much like that old Jedi dude and the droids, this may not be the bounce we've been looking for. While a rally today would indeed fulfill the increasingly dire need for a technical correction in bonds, the rally would be more meaningful if it coincided with tomorrow's 10yr Treasury auction as opposed to today's 3yr. Why? 3yr Treasuries are a fundamentally different part of the bond market–one with far less bearing on mortgages, and simply not very…(read more)