There’s no relief in sight for high borrowing costs as interest rate cuts are pushed further into the distance. Still, a surge in housing inventory could give buyers more options, Fannie Mae said in a report.

Mortgage rates have ticked above 7% in recent weeks and that, combined with high home prices, has rendered housing unaffordable for many. Fannie Mae is still forecasting for mortgage rates to decrease later this year to 6.6%, but borrowing costs will only drop meaningfully once the Fed dials back interest rates. That won’t come until the central bank is confident that inflation will reach a 2% target rate. 

The inflation data registered this year has been higher than the Fed expected. The latest reading of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy prices—a key metric the Federal Reserve tracks to measure inflation—increased by 3.7% after rising to 2% in the fourth quarter, raising concerns that inflation may be headed in the wrong direction. Fannie Mae has readjusted its expectations on inflation and now expects the Consumer Price Index to end 2024 at a 3.1% annual rate, compared to the previously projected 2.5%.   

“While we still expect economic growth and inflation to moderate going forward – and, thus, for mortgage rates to drift downward – interest rates existing in a ‘higher for longer’ state seems to be an increasingly real possibility in the eyes of market participants, as well as some homebuyers and sellers,” Fannie Mae Vice President, Economic and Strategic Research Hamilton Fout said. “While we’ve recently seen evidence that some potential home sellers are becoming more acclimated to the higher mortgage rate environment and putting their homes on the market, the recent move upward in rates is yet another headwind to the recovery of home sales, and it intensifies long-standing affordability challenges for consumers.”

The silver lining for the housing market is that supply is expected to build as home sales lag, which “should help gradually thaw housing inventory and contribute to decelerating home price growth,” Fannie Mae said. 

Homebuyers can find the best mortgage rate by shopping around and comparing your options. You can visit an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates, choose your loan term and get preapproved with multiple lenders at once.

SOCIAL SECURITY: COLA INCREASING BUT MEDICARE COSTS RISING TOO IN 2024

Home prices forecasted to keep rising

Fannie Mae has readjusted its home price projection and forecasts upwards, but there are signs that gains are slowing. Home prices are forecasted to increase 4.8% annually in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025.

Home prices are now 6.4% above their level this time last year, up from the 6% increase registered in January, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index report.  Across the nation, home prices increased 0.6% month-over-month after dipping the previous month. This annual and monthly growth in home prices comes as homebuyers struggle with affordability issues caused by high mortgage rates and a lack of housing supply.  

“Home price growth pivoted in February, as the impact of the January 2023 Home Price Index bottom finally faded,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp said in a statement. “As a result, the U.S. should begin to see slowing annual home price gains moving forward.”  

If you’re looking to become a homeowner, you could still find the best mortgage rates by shopping around. Visit Credible to compare your options without affecting your credit score.

MILLENNIALS ARE DESPERATE TO BUY A HOME, MOST WILLING TO PAY A MORTGAGE RATE ABOVE 7%: SURVEY

Here’s how much homebuyers need to earn 

Homebuyers need to earn more today to afford a home. Based on the current interest rate of 7.22% over a 30-year mortgage, buyers today would need to earn an annual income of roughly $120,000, plus a 10% down payment, to afford a home, according to the Clever Real Estate report. However, the average American household earns about $45,000 less than that, and most first-time buyers can’t afford a 10% down payment.

Based on the median annual salary and a 10% down payment, most first-time buyers can afford a home priced at about $207,529 — 38% less than the current median-priced home. Increasing the down payment to 20% lowers the salary threshold to $98,202, but saving that amount could take years, the Clever report said. 

Moreover, higher mortgage rates and home prices mean that 20% of Americans spend roughly 30% of their paychecks on monthly home loan payments, and 10% spend more than half of their pay, according to a recent NewHomesMates.com survey. Homeownership is considered affordable if households spend at most 28% of their monthly income on housing costs. The survey said those ready to take the plunge have had to sink a larger portion of their paychecks into mortgage payments and make significant cuts to everyday spending.  

If you’re considering becoming a homeowner, it could help to shop around to find the best mortgage rate. Visit Credible to compare options from different lenders and choose the one with the best rate for you.

THIS IS THE #1 CITY FOR FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS, AND OTHER HOT US HOUSING MARKETS

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

Source: foxbusiness.com

Apache is functioning normally

I spoke to a friend the other day who is selling their home and moving up to a bigger one.

Crazy I know! What with home prices where they are the mortgage rates more than double their early 2022 levels.

Despite this, they needed more space (and wanted a new locale) and were ready to move on from their old home.

Sure, it might not be the best time to buy a home, but it’s not always about the financials.

And even so, they’ve got a plan to offset the big jump in interest expense.

They’ve Currently Got a 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Set at 2.75%

First some background on the deal. They purchased their existing home around 2012, which was basically the housing market bottom post-GFC.

This was one of the very best times to purchase a home in recent memory. Aside from seeing their home nearly triple in value, they also snagged a crazy low mortgage rate.

A 30-year fixed at 2.75%. Pretty hard to beat. The purchase price of the home was around $400,000, and is expected to sell for around $1 million today. Also pretty hard to beat!

Problem is, mortgage rates are now closer to 7% and home prices on replacement homes are comparatively high as well.

In short, if you sell today you take on a much higher mortgage rate and sales price. This means a significantly higher payment.

They can actually absorb the higher payment, but they know swapping a 2.75% mortgage for a 7.25% mortgage isn’t a great trade-off.

So here’s the plan to offset that much higher interest expense.

Using Sales Proceeds to Prepay the New Mortgage

Now this might not be for everyone, but many home sellers today are flush with home equity.

They purchased their homes either decades ago and have no mortgage, or they purchased in the early 2010s and have seen property values skyrocket.

If we consider my friend’s $400,000 home purchase in 2012 with a 20% down payment and 2.75% mortgage rate, the loan balance would be around $222,000 today.

Assuming a sales price of $1 million, they might walk with $650,000 or more. They have elected to use some of those proceeds to put a dent in the new mortgage.

Not all of it mind you, to save for an emergency fund. But a good chunk of it.

Once their old home sells, they’ll apply a large lump sum payment to the new loan. Let’s pretend the new home was $1.2 million and they put 20% down again.

The loan amount is $960,000 and the monthly payment at 7.25% is about $6,550. Obviously, a huge jump from their old payment of about $1,300.

But they’re able to make the higher monthly payment, perhaps due to higher wages. Or maybe because they could always afford more.

Regardless, they don’t need a lower payment to make it work. And their plan is to knock down that loan balance in short order.

They Can Pay Off the New Loan in Less Than 15 Years

A Lump Sum Payment Comparison
$960k loan amount
No extra payment
$300k lump sum payment
Interest Rate 7.25% 7.25%
Monthly Payment $6,548.89 $6,548.89
Loan Term 30 years 13 years
Interest Savings n/a $1,018,498

Now let’s imagine that once their old home sells, they apply $300,000 in sales proceeds to the new mortgage.

That knocks down the balance to around $657,000 just a few months into their new loan term.

Importantly, this extra mortgage payment does not lower their future mortgage payments, since that’s not how mortgages work.

They’d still have to continue making that payment of about $6,550 unless they asked the lender for a loan recast.

However, and this is a biggie, they’d save about $1 million in interest if they kept the loan to maturity.

And speaking of maturity, their loan would be paid off in about 13 years instead of 30 years.

This would effectively turn their 7.25% mortgage rate into something comparable to their original interest rate. All thanks to sending those sales proceeds toward the new mortgage.

A Mortgage Refinance Still Remains an Option

In the meantime, they can also keep an eye on mortgage rates and if they fall enough, a rate and term refinance could be an option as well.

So they’re not necessarily stuck with the new 7.25% rate. And if rates do come down, they’ll have a much smaller outstanding loan balance.

This means their loan-to-value ratio (LTV) will be much lower, which equates to fewer pricing adjustments.

For example, their LTV might be closer to 50% instead of 80% when it comes time to refinance. Generally speaking, this means a lower mortgage rate too.

Aside from a refinance, a loan recast is also typically an option, assuming they want a lower payment.

This won’t save them as much money, nor will the mortgage be paid off early, but it brings monthly payments down by re-amortizing the loan based on the smaller balance.

But if you’re more interested in paying less interest, perhaps because you were used to holding a 2-3% mortgage, this is one way to do it. Assuming you can afford the higher monthly payment.

And it’s one way an existing homeowner with mortgage rate lock-in can free themselves without feeling bad about losing their old, cheap home loan.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

Apache is functioning normally

It is a starkly data-free week for all intents and purposes, but some economic reports are with us as always on a weekly basis.  Thursday’s initial jobless claims data is the most notable weekly report even though it rarely causes a reaction in the bond market.  Today is a clear exception owing to the much larger than normal deviation from the forecast consensus (231k vs 210k prev). 

Even though several analysts and trade desks have attempted to explain away the increase, bonds are unfazed.  After starting the day slightly weaker, we’re now slightly stronger (no impact on the bigger picture and nothing significant… just a nicer start).

The chart above may make today look like a bigger deal, so let’s take a moment to zoom out and include the past month of market movement to see how today stacks up:

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

Affiliate links for the products on this page are from partners that compensate us (see our advertiser disclosure with our list of partners for more details). However, our opinions are our own. See how we rate mortgages to write unbiased product reviews.

We may get some more clarity on how mortgage rates will trend this year when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April’s Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday. 

Over the last week, 30-year mortgage rates have hovered in the upper 6% range, according to Zillow data. But if this latest inflation report shows that prices rose faster than expected last month, rates could jump back up above 7%. Rates have been very sensitive to economic data this year, so however the report turns out, be prepared for rates to move up or down.

Most forecasters expect mortgage rates to go down this year, but they’re unlikely to fall until inflation slows further and the Federal Reserve starts lowering the federal funds rate.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s inflation nowcast, core CPI may show some signs of slowing in April’s report, which would be good news for mortgage rates.

Mortgage Rates Today

Mortgage type Average rate today
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Mortgage Refinance Rates Today

Mortgage type Average rate today
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Mortgage Calculator

Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.

Mortgage Calculator

$1,161
Your estimated monthly payment

Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
  • Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
  • Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
  • Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months

By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.09% last week, according to Freddie Mac. This is 13 basis points lower than it was the week before.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.

The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you’ll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms or adjustable rates. 

15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

Average 15-year mortgage rates were 6.38% last week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is a nine-basis-point decrease from the previous week.

If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.

Are Mortgage Rates Going Down?

Mortgage rates increased throughout most of 2023. But mortgage rates are expected to trend down in the coming months and years.

In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.5%. As inflation comes down and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should fall further as well.

For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.

A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.

Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans. 

How Do Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages?

The Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate in 2022 and 2023 to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. As a result, mortgage rates spiked.

Mortgage rates aren’t directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed hikes to affect the broader economy. 

Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, which is likely to happen this year, mortgage rates should fall even further.

Source: businessinsider.com

Apache is functioning normally

One of the notions surrounding the Treasury auction cycle is that the bond trading community tends to build in a “concession” ahead of any given auction.  That’s a fancy word to say “rates go higher.”  Clearly, if that was always the case, speculators could reliably bet on it and, over time, it would get back to being less of a certainty.  Nonetheless, it is still a fairly reliable occurrence to see some selling ahead of an auction, albeit without predictable timing or magnitude.  The practical reason for this is that traders will buy $42bln in 10yr notes this afternoon, and that’s $42bln less in buying demand available before the auction.  Lower demand = lower prices = higher yields.  

All of the above assumes we’re talking about a level of movement that actually matters, and today’s movement really doesn’t.  So far, today’s narrow range is fully contained by yesterday’s range (i.e. today is an “inside day”). Moreover, it’s a very small uptick in yields that follows 5 straight days of gains.  This is one of those rare times that the future actually becomes less and less random. The more consecutive trading sessions bonds string together in the same direction, the more likely it becomes to see at least some sort of a push back in the other direction–even if only small and temporary.  

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com