Renting

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Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data

By:
Matthew Graham

Thu, Apr 25 2024, 4:01 PM

Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data

Today’s big surprise was the PCE price index component of Q1 GDP.  GDP itself was weaker than expected, but even that was explained away by components not related to private domestic consumption.  Focusing on the latter makes Q1 look just as strong as any of the past few quarters.  PCE did the most damage for two reasons.  It was MUCH higher than expected (3.7 vs 3.4) and that implies tomorrow’s PCE data (a monthly version of today’s quarterly report) is also at risk of coming in higher than expected.  This “sneak peek” effect is only a concern once per quarter with the “advance” release of GDP.

    • Jobless Claims
      • 207k vs 214k f’cast, 212k prev
    • Continued Claims
      • 1781k s 1814k f’cast
    • GDP
      • 1.6 vs 2.5 f’cast, 3.4 prev
    • Q1 PCE Prices 
      • 3.7 vs 3.4 f’cast
    • Wholesale Inventories
      • -0.4 v s +0.2 f’cast

08:41 AM

Bonds losing ground quickly after 8:30am data.  MBS down a quarter point.  10yr up almost 5bps at 4.691.

11:07 AM

Weakest levels at 9:30am and pushing back slightly since then.  10yr up 6.4bps at 4.706.  MBS down 10 ticks (.31).

01:28 PM

No reaction to 7yr Treasury auction.  10yr up 6.1bps at 4.703.  MBS down 11 ticks (.34)

03:35 PM

Increasingly flat at the same old levels.  10yr up 6bps at 4.702 and MBS down 10 ticks (.31).

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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National mortgage rates edged higher for all types of loans compared to a week ago, according to data compiled by Bankrate. Rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, 5/1 ARMs and jumbo loans jumped.

Some forecasters are backing off from the earlier expectation of lower mortgage rates this year. Fixed mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves as investor appetite fluctuates with the state of the economy, inflation and Federal Reserve decisions.

“The issue of inflation remains unsettled,” says Ken Johnson of Florida State University. “This is putting upward pressure on mortgage rates through the yield on 10-year Treasurys.”

The Fed indicated it’d cut rates in 2024, but policymakers held off at its latest meeting, citing the need for more promising economic data. The Fed has been working to bring inflation back to its 2 percent target since 2022.

The Fed meets next on May 1 — at the start of the homebuying busy season.

Whether mortgage rates move up or down, though, it’s difficult to time the market. Often, the decision to buy a home comes down to what you need. Depending on your situation, it might make sense to take a higher rate now and refinance later. This way you can start building equity, rather than waiting for a time when rates and prices are more favorable.

Rates accurate as of April 22, 2024.

The rates listed here are averages based on the assumptions shown here. Actual rates available across the site may vary. This story has been reviewed by Suzanne De Vita. All rate data accurate as of Monday, April 22nd, 2024 at 7:30 a.m. ET.

30-year mortgage rate increases, +0.24%

The average rate you’ll pay for a 30-year fixed mortgage today is 7.29 percent, up 24 basis points over the last seven days. Last month on the 22nd, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was lower, at 6.97 percent.

At the current average rate, you’ll pay a combined $684.89 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s up $16.23 from what it would have been last week.

Learn more about 30-year fixed mortgage rates, and compare to a variety of other loan types.

15-year mortgage rate advances, +0.20%

The average 15-year fixed-mortgage rate is 6.74 percent, up 20 basis points over the last week.

Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost roughly $884 per $100,000 borrowed. The bigger payment may be a little harder to find room for in your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage payment, but it comes with some big advantages: You’ll come out several thousand dollars ahead over the life of the loan in total interest paid and build equity much faster.

5/1 ARM rate trends higher, +0.10%

The average rate on a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.68 percent, rising 10 basis points since the same time last week.

Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, are mortgage loans that come with a floating interest rate. In other words, the interest rate will change at regular intervals, unlike fixed-rate mortgages. These types of loans are best for people who expect to refinance or sell before the first or second adjustment. Rates could be substantially higher when the loan first adjusts, and thereafter.

While borrowers shunned ARMs during the pandemic days of super-low rates, this type of loan has made a comeback as mortgage rates have risen.

Monthly payments on a 5/1 ARM at 6.68 percent would cost about $644 for each $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years, but could climb hundreds of dollars higher afterward, depending on the loan’s terms.

Jumbo mortgage interest rate moves up, +0.17%

The average rate for a 30-year jumbo mortgage is 7.38 percent, up 17 basis points since the same time last week. This time a month ago, jumbo mortgages’ average rate was below that at 7.12 percent.

At today’s average rate, you’ll pay $691.02 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s an increase of $11.55 over what you would have paid last week.

Refinance rates

30-year fixed-rate refinance goes up, +0.23%

The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 7.30 percent, up 23 basis points over the last seven days. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was lower at 6.91 percent.

At the current average rate, you’ll pay $685.57 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. Compared with last week, that’s $15.56 higher.

Where are mortgage rates heading?

If and when the Fed cuts interest rates depends on incoming economic data, such as the rate of inflation and the jobs market.

“While the majority of Fed members still expect three rate cuts this year, Atlanta Fed President Bostic is now predicting just one rate cut in the fourth quarter,” says Melissa Cohn of William Raveis Mortgage. “Not the news we want for the spring market.”

Keep in mind: The rates on 30-year mortgages mostly follow the 10-year Treasury, which shifts continuously as economic conditions dictate, while the cost of variable-rate home loans mirror the Fed’s moves.

These broader factors influence overall rate movement. As a borrower, you could be quoted a higher or lower rate than the trend based on your own financial profile.

What current rates mean for you and your mortgage

While mortgage rates change daily, it’s unlikely we’ll see rates back at 3 percent anytime soon. If you’re shopping for a mortgage now, it might be wise to lock your rate when you find an affordable loan. If your house-hunt is taking longer than anticipated, revisit your budget so you’ll know exactly how much house you can afford at prevailing market rates.

You could save serious money on interest by getting at least three loan offers, according to Freddie Mac research. You don’t have to stick with your bank or credit union, either. There are many types of mortgage lenders, including online-only and local, smaller shops.

“All too often, some [homebuyers] take the path of least resistance when seeking a mortgage, in part because the process of buying a home can be stressful, complicated and time-consuming,” says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate. “But when we’re talking about the potential of saving a lot of money, seeking the best deal on a mortgage has an excellent return on investment. Why leave that money on the table when all it takes is a bit more effort to shop around for the best rate, or lowest cost, on a mortgage?”

More on current mortgage rates

Methodology

Bankrate displays two sets of rate averages that are produced from two surveys we conduct: one daily (“overnight averages”) and the other weekly (“Bankrate Monitor averages”).

The rates on this page represent our overnight averages. For these averages, APRs and rates are based on no existing relationship or automatic payments.

Learn more about Bankrate’s rate averages, editorial guidelines and how we make money.

Source: bankrate.com

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Interest rates care about quite a few different things, but inflation and Fed policy are two of the biggest considerations.  One of the Fed’s favorite ways to track progress on inflation is the PCE price index which comes out every month, but also every quarter.

Oddly enough, the quarterly comes out a day before the monthly data on the 4 days of the year where a new quarter is reported.  Today was one of those days and the quarterly data showed a big surge in inflation.  The implication is that there’s a much bigger risk that tomorrow’s monthly inflation number also proves to be higher than expected.

Bonds/rates don’t like inflation to begin with, but it’s even more problematic when it has a direct bearing on Fed policy decisions.  This particular news is seen as pushing the Fed even farther into the future for its first rate cut of this cycle.  In other words, both the data, and the Fed implications were bad news for rates today.

The average lender jumped immediately higher by roughly an eighth of a point.  This brings the top tier conventional 30yr rate index over 7.5% for the first time since November 13th.  Tomorrow could add insult to injury, but it’s also worth noting that markets are expecting worse news now, so if it’s only a little worse, the injury might not be that bad.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Washington
CNN
 — 

Sales of newly built single-family homes in the United States soared in March despite mortgage rates remaining elevated that month.

New home sales, which make up about 10% of the market, jumped 8.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000, according to government figures released Tuesday. That trounced the 670,000 rate projected by economists, according to a FactSet poll, and was the strongest monthly increase since December 2022.

Sales of new homes increased across the country last month, rising the most in the Northeast region by a robust 27.8% from February.

Meanwhile, sales of existing homes, which make up the vast majority of the housing market, fell 4.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million, the sharpest drop in more than a year, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.

Housing market poised to remain difficult

The broader US housing market is expected to remain tough for Americans, with mortgage rates poised to stay well above 6% this year, economists say. The Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions do influence them, and the central bank isn’t expected to cut interest rates anytime soon. A persistent undersupply of housing also remains a key pressure point in the market, contributing to low affordability.

Housing inventory has improved in recent months, but supply still isn’t keeping up with demand. This means homebuyers have limited options as some homeowners who locked in a low mortgage rate before the Fed began to hike rates in 2022 largely prefer to not sell their homes.

“Despite high prices and mortgage rates, homebuyers have limited options on the resale market, although resale inventories have improved some over the course of this year,” Gregg Logan, managing director at RCLCO Real Estate Consulting, said in a note Tuesday.

“The willingness of the major homebuilders to utilize incentives such as price reductions, mortgage rate buy-downs and paying buyers closings costs continue to support a healthy pace of new home sales,” he added.

A stalled housing market recovery?

The housing market began the year with some momentum as home sales surged, homebuilder sentiment perked up and inventory levels climbed, but now it seems to have fizzled out.

In addition to the March drop in existing home sales, residential construction of single-family homes also fell that month, declining 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units, according to Commerce Department data released earlier this month. Residential construction fell throughout the country except in the West. Meanwhile, building permits for future construction tumbled 3.7% in March to a five-month low.

Data from the National Association of Home Builders showed that 22% of builders cut homes prices in April, down from 24% in March. Meanwhile, the share of builders who offered a sales incentive edged lower to 57% in April from 60% in March. Sentiment among homebuilders in America held steady in April, NAHB said.

“April’s flat reading suggests potential for demand growth is there, but buyers are hesitating until they can better gauge where interest rates are headed,” NAHB’s chief economist, Robert Dietz, said in a release.

This story has been updated with additional context.

Source: cnn.com

Apache is functioning normally

It’s a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement.  At face value the headlines make a better case for lower rates with GDP at 1.6 vs 2.5, wholesale inventories missing big and Jobless Claims not too far from forecast.  But the devil is in the details–specifically, the details inside the quarterly GDP data.  GDP will be reported 3 times for Q1.  Today was the first of those and as such, the PCE price data component offers a bit of a sneak peek at tomorrow’s PCE inflation data. 

GDP is not a hugely important report, but PCE inflation is.  With all that in mind, the PCE component in today’s data was 3.7 vs 3.4.  In a world where a 0.1 beat/miss can cause massive volatility for the bond market, that’s a huge beat.  Bonds will likely be feeling extra defensive until and unless tomorrow’s Core PCE number tells a slightly less dramatic story.

Stocks haven’t loved the data either, due to the implications for the Fed’s rate outlook.  The following isn’t the pattern normally associated with stocks and bonds, but it is prevalent at times when the market is actively refining its outlook for the Fed Funds Rate.

In the slightly bigger picture, this morning’s weakness constitutes the first significant break above the 4.65 level and it breathes a bit more life into the uptrend that had dominated the month of April (the one that looked to be defeated by the 4.65 ceiling.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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LOS ANGELES (AP) — Prospective homebuyers are facing higher costs to finance a home with the average long-term U.S. mortgage rate moving above 7% this week to its highest level in nearly five months.

The average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 7.1% from 6.88% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.39%.

When mortgage rates rise, they can add hundreds of dollars a month in costs for borrowers, limiting how much they can afford at a time when the U.S. housing market remains constrained by relatively few homes for sale and rising home prices.

“As rates trend higher, potential homebuyers are deciding whether to buy before rates rise even more or hold off in hopes of decreases later in the year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Last week, purchase applications rose modestly, but it remains unclear how many homebuyers can withstand increasing rates in the future.”

AP business correspondent Alex Veiga reports mortgage rates reaching their highest level in months.

After climbing to a 23-year high of 7.79% in October, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage had remained below 7% since early December amid expectations that inflation would ease enough this year for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting its short-term interest rate.

Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, including how the bond market reacts to the Fed’s interest rate policy and the moves in the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.

But home loan rates have been mostly drifting higher in recent weeks as stronger-than-expected reports on employment and inflation have stoked doubts over how soon the Fed might decide to start lowering its benchmark interest rate. The uncertainty has pushed up bond yields.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to around 4.66% on Tuesday — its highest level since early November — after top officials at the Federal Reserve suggested the central bank may hold its main interest steady for a while. The Fed wants to get more confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward its target of 2%.

The yield was at 4.64% at midday Thursday after new data on applications for unemployment benefits and a report showing manufacturing growth in the mid-Atlantic region pointed to a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy.

“With no cuts to the federal funds rate imminent and with the economy still strong, there is no reason to see downward pressure on mortgage rates right now,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. “It seems increasingly likely that mortgage rates are not going to come down any time soon.”

Sturtevant said it’s likely the average rate on a 30-year mortgage will hold close to 7% throughout the spring before easing to the mid-to-high 6% range into the summer.

Other economists also expect that mortgage rates will ease moderately later this year, with forecasts generally calling for the average rate to remain above 6%.

Mortgage rates have now risen three weeks in a row, a setback for home shoppers this spring homebuying season, traditionally the housing market’s busiest time of the year.

Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell last month as home shoppers contended with elevated mortgage rates and rising prices.

While easing mortgage rates helped push home sales higher in January and February, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage remains well above 5.1%, where was just two years ago.

That large gap between rates now and then has helped limit the number of previously occupied homes on the market because many homeowners who bought or refinanced more than two years ago are reluctant to sell and give up their fixed-rate mortgages below 3% or 4%.

Meanwhile, the cost of refinancing a home loan also got pricier this week. Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, often used to refinance longer-term mortgages, rose this week, pushing the average rate to 6.39% from 6.16% last week. A year ago it averaged 5.76%, Freddie Mac said.

Source: apnews.com

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Data Mining, Servicing, Marketing Products: Check Your Noncompete Agreement; Training Next Week

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Data Mining, Servicing, Marketing Products: Check Your Noncompete Agreement; Training Next Week

By:
Rob Chrisman

Wed, Apr 24 2024, 11:23 AM

Sometimes you just have to “risk it for the biscuit.” Capital markets are, for the most part, a little more complicated than, say, a recipe for next level dark chocolate brownies with salted caramel. Occasionally the topic of LOs or brokers being able to lock a loan, any time, any day, comes up. The New York Stock Exchange, owned by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has started polling market participants on their interest in and potential implications of an exchange that trades stocks 24/7. The polling underscores growing interest in trading stocks in off-hours. Could MBS be far behind? The survey comes after 24 Exchange, backed by Steven Cohen’s Point72, applied with the Securities and Exchange Commission to start the first 24-hour exchange. The prospect of 24-hour trading, which would likely lead to changes across the ecosystem, becomes a heavier lift for exchanges as they’re supervised by the SEC. Found here, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Calque. With The Trade-In Mortgage powered by Calque, homeowners can buy before they sell, make non-contingent offers, and tap their home equity to fund the down payment on their next home. Today’s has an interview with Michael Bremer and Peter Kallodaychsak on interactions between lenders and Realtors in the wake of the proposed NAR settlement.

Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services

Down Payment Resource’s Q1 2024 Homeownership Program Index (HPI) report reveals the largest annual jump in programs since it began tracking data in 2020, with 2,373 DPA programs now available nationwide. That’s 204 more programs than Q1 2023, a 9 percent YoY increase. DPR also noted that there’s at least one program in every U.S. county and 10 or more programs available in 2,000 counties, making it highly likely DPA could boost homeownership for borrowers in your footprint. The report also documents increases in programs for manufactured housing and multi-family purchases. Lenders are reminded that DPR is a software company, with a suite of tools to help you operationalize DPA to better serve your customers and lower your declines, especially among LMI buyers. Read the full report or schedule a demo to learn more.

“Every marketing team we’ve talked to is spread thin. Thankfully, Usherpa is here to help! Partnering with Usherpa means your sales team not only gets excellent done-for-them automated marketing campaigns, but your marketing team also gets all the tools and the support they need. Usherpa has its finger on the pulse of the market continually creating new, innovative marketing campaigns… for you! Usherpa’s award-winning automated SmartScore AI Opportunity Alerts and marketing campaigns (free for enterprise clients) are built on proprietary algorithms to target prospects in LO’s databases with effective messaging, creating hot call lists and inbound requests from prospects. Wouldn’t it be nice to have this type of targeted campaign, with proven ROI, launched automatically for your loan officers? Usherpa’s SmartScore AI alerts added an extra $1.4 billion pipeline volume and funded loans (and counting). Schedule a demo today.”

“Revolutionizing mortgage servicing through digital transformation! As Sagent CTO Uday Devalla recently explained in a fireside chat with Robert Turner (Kyndryl) and Manisha Tank (CNN International), since collaborating with Kyndryl to move away from legacy data centers and into the cloud, Sagent is focused on delivering a unified servicing workflow with end-to-end data to truly transform the business processes and improve the lives of the people who use our systems. To learn more about our future-of-servicing model and the benefits of our partnership with Kyndryl, check out our recap here (and watch the interview when you get a chance) and be sure to hit us with your questions.”

Interested in learning how retain/release MSR decisions can be included in your best execution strategy? Join MCT for a webinar today at 11:00 AM PT titled Complete Best Execution – Now Including Fully Integrated Retain/Release MSR Decisioning. In this webinar, MCT will review the current state of the MSR market and discuss more comprehensive retain vs. release strategies, in addition to our recently introduced fully integrated Enhanced Best Execution (EBX) solution. MCT’s Paul Yarbrough will then provide insights from a trader’s perspective regarding MSR best execution strategies at time of loan sale. He will also highlight MCT’s Rapid Commit technology and assignment of trade processes. This session will include a live demo of the EBX (MCTlive! and MSRlive!) integration, showcasing how EBX can effectively optimize your flow MSR trading process and decisions. Register for the webinar to join the session.

Tired of granting excessive concessions that impact your bottom line? Say goodbye to unnecessary giveaways with Optimal Blue data at your fingertips! Access to OB’s data solutions empowers you to make informed decisions, leveraging real-time market insights to negotiate with confidence. With over 35 percent of loans priced and locked through our platform, we offer the depth of market data you need to optimize every deal and maximize profitability. Whether you’re a bank, credit union, or independent mortgage banker, our user-friendly data solutions make it easy to access the information you need to secure the best terms for your borrowers and your business. Learn more about Optimal Blue’s data offerings today to start saving time, money, and headaches on every loan transaction.

Snapdocs released new industry research that found lenders using the company’s eClosing platform experience 18-day faster loan velocity than their industry peers. The survey was conducted by STRATMOR Group with data self-reported by mortgage lenders. I got a note from Michael Sachdev, CEO of Snapdocs, that said eClosing technology, when paired with the right partner to scale adoption, is helping lenders set new industry benchmarks for loan processing speed, operating costs, and borrower satisfaction. So often we see vendors make claims about their product value, but this report is a good example of that validation being sourced directly from the lender users themselves.

Most Noncompetes Now Illegal, Except…

The Federal Trade Commission narrowly voted Tuesday to ban nearly all noncompete agreements, employment agreements that typically prevent workers from joining competing businesses or launching ones of their own. The FTC received more than 26,000 public comments in the months leading up to the vote. The FTC estimates about 30 million people, or one in five American workers, from minimum wage earners to CEOs, are bound by noncompetes. It says the policy change could lead to increased wages totaling nearly $300 billion per year by encouraging people to swap jobs freely. The ban, which will take effect later this year, carves out an exception for existing noncompetes that companies have given their senior executives, on the grounds that these agreements are more likely to have been negotiated. The FTC says employers should not enforce other existing noncompete agreements.

Training, Webinars, and Events Next Week

The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) will host hundreds of community bank leaders during the 2024 ICBA Capital Summit from April 28 to May 1 in Washington. As part of ICBA’s annual advocacy gathering, community bankers will meet with policymakers to discuss ICBA’s regulatory and legislative agenda and share personal accounts of their efforts to stimulate economic growth and support the diverse financial needs of consumers.

Great things are happening around the 2024 Fair Lending Forum, April 29 – May 1 in Charlotte, NC! Asurity is thrilled to announce that Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General, will be joining us! He will share his perspectives on fair lending during a fireside chat with our Founder and CEO, Andy Sandler titled The Role of State Attorney Generals in Fair Lending Enforcement. Other prominent speakers are Bob Broeksmit, President and CEO of MBA; Lindsey Johnson, President and CEO of CBA: Grovetta Gardineer, Sr. Deputy Comptroller for Bank Supervision Policy, OCC; Ben Olson, Senior Associate Director for Consumer Protection & Supervision, FRB; Varda Hussain, Principal Deputy Chief for Fair Lending in the Civil Rights Division, Housing and Civil Enforcement Section, DOJ; and Frank Vespa-Papaleo, Principal Deputy Director of Fair Lending, CFPB. Register at www.fairlendingforum.com.

How are Biden’s new student loan repayment programs impacting mortgage affordability? Join LoanSense for a market and student loan update. Lake Michigan Credit Union will join and share how LoanSense helps their credit union members qualify for $50,000+ more home in 21 days. Sign up for the May 1st webinar at 3PM ET.

New York MBA webinar on May 1st at 12pm will explore the journey from origination through servicing, focusing on how to initiate and maintain an electronic process leveraging the latest in digital mortgage technology. Dive into the benefits of MISMO SMART Doc® Version 3 disclosures, eNote, eVault, and the differences between hybrid and full eClosing processes with remote online notarization (RON) and in-person electronic notarization (IPEN). Additionally, strategies for default resolution with digital execution to enhance homeowner engagement and streamline servicer workflows. Hosted by Ryan Murray, Tim Anderson, Shane Hartzler with Stavvy.

If you’re in Minnesota on May 1st, 10:00am – 12:00pm and a Loan Originator, are you interested in creating and building strong realtor relationships? If so, register and attend the “Mastering the Realtor Referral Relationship” presented by Steven Ross, Author of Doors Open When You Knock.

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for “Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One. Every Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST/11:00 AM PT join Robbie Chrisman and Justin Demola for a dive into a range of mortgage-related topics, including market trends, interest rate fluctuations, innovative mortgage products, and industry advancements. On May 1 listen to Vice President, FICO Mortgage and Capital Markets, Joe Zeibert.

Register for NALHFA Annual Conference 2024, May 1-4 in Las Vegas. Experience education and connection at NALHFA 2024 with an Affordable Housing Bus Tour, Women in Finance Luncheon & Roundtable, Speaker Sessions, and Networking Opportunities.

Thursday, May 2nd, at 3PM ET, Rich Swerbinsky is interviewing the CFPB’s Mark McArdle on what the big misconceptions about the CFPB are, and where its focus is currently.

Register for the Maryland Mortgage Bankers and Brokers Association Annual Conference, scheduled for Thursday, May 2nd, 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. in the picturesque setting of Queenstown. This year’s conference will delve deep into the dynamics of the mortgage industry and explore the current market trends. Whether you’re a seasoned professional or just stepping into the mortgage world, this event promises valuable insights to navigate the industry’s landscape.

Join Northern Michigan Luncheon, Thursday, May 2, 11:30 AM – 1:00 PM at Silver Spruce Brewing Company, to hear from a panel of VA Loan Experts and they dive into the specifics of this loan type, any changes that are coming on VA loans and much more. They’ll also be discussing the pending NAR settlement, and what changes that brings to VA loans, sales, and associated realtor fees.

Friday the 3rd we’ll see an episode of The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown covering current events in the mortgage market for 30-45 minutes starting at noon PT, 3PM ET, in “The Rundown”.

Capital Markets

Spoiler alert: the U.S. economy is motoring along with interest rates at these levels. The U.S. economy appears to be on track for a soft landing, with notable obstacles being a potential resurgence of inflation and heightened geopolitical risks. There’s been a cautious stance on interest rate adjustments from Fed members of late, and some have even floated the possibility of a hike, if warranted by data. Atlanta Fed President Bostic anticipates a slower path to achieving 2 percent inflation than the Fed originally thought, while New York Fed President Williams is not feeling any urgency to cut rates and didn’t rule out the possibility of a hike in his latest remarks. Bostic doesn’t foresee easing until year-end, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari also suggested the Fed could maintain rates throughout the year.

Looking ahead, while no changes to the fed funds rate are expected, a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet runoff is anticipated. The Committee may announce a reduction in the runoff of Treasury securities starting in June, capping it at $30 billion per month, compared to the current cap of $60 billion per month. This adjustment reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties, aiming to maintain stability while monitoring key indicators such as inflation and geopolitical developments.

We learned yesterday that new home sales jumped 8.8 percent to a 693k-unit pace in March, the strongest pace since September 2023. New home sales should continue to gradually improve with a sturdy economy, and structural affordability and availability constraints in the resale market should also help. That noted, strength in the Northeast and West regions has fluctuated, impacting supply dynamics, and higher interest rates and rising existing supply could weigh on the new home market moving forward.

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications from MBA, which decreased 2.7 percent from one week earlier. We’ve also received the always volatile Durable goods orders for March (+2.6 percent). Later today brings some Treasury auctions that will be headlined by $30 billion 2-year FRNs and $70 billion 5-year notes. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices slightly worse than Tuesday night, the 10-year yielding 4.63 after closing yesterday at 4.60 percent, and the 2-year is at 4.94.

Employment

“Join a premier, mid-sized independent mortgage banker and award-winning lender as a Financial Controller and key member of our Senior Management Team. Recognized by National Mortgage News as one of the best companies to work for, we operate branches along the East Coast, and in Texas, with plans for strategic growth and expansion in 2024 and beyond. The Financial Controller develops and implements the overall financial strategy by overseeing accounting and cash management, driving the company’s financial planning, and managing the accounting staff within the department. The ideal candidate will have 7+ years of experience in mortgage banking and a strong background in accounting and financial management. If you are prepared to play a pivotal role as a Financial Controller in a corporate culture that is dynamic, innovative and collaborative, please email Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt to forward your confidential note. Remote or Washington DC metropolitan based.”

Figure Technology Solutions announced the appointment of Michael Tannenbaum as Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors, effective immediately. Michael comes over after stints as Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and Chief Business officer at Brex, and Chief Revenue Officer at SoFi. Mike Cagney, Co-Founder, and previous Chief Executive Officer of Figure, has assumed the role of Executive Chairman. (The appointment of Mr. Tannenbaum follows the launch of Figure’s DART System, a combined lien filing and eNote registry service, and the company’s AI and machine learning-powered borrower-facing chatbot, which improves customer support efficiency and further streamlines the HELOC origination process.)

A&D Mortgage announced the appointment of Satish Vishwakarma as its new Servicing Manager where he will be responsible for overseeing the day-to-day operations of the Mortgage Servicing group, ensuring the successful management of mortgage servicing teams, and leading efforts to streamline operations, enhance quality, and reduce costs.

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

Were the good old days really all that good? Sure, when mortgage rates were below 3%, it was a lot cheaper to purchase a house, but we were also in the middle of a global pandemic. 

At the start of 2021, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 2.65%, according to data from Freddie Mac. During the homebuying boom of 2020 and 2021, the number of borrowers taking out new mortgages reached a more than two-decade high. 

Over the past two years, a combination of high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and sluggish wage growth has crippled affordability for homebuyers. 

While many are holding out for mortgage rates to fall, it’s unlikely we’ll see 2% mortgage rates any time soon. In fact, experts hope we don’t. 

A return to that kind of low-rate environment would indicate major problems in the economy, said Alex Thomas, senior research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting.

Mortgage rates typically fall during a recession. But a recession also comes with widespread unemployment, increased debt, investment losses and overall financial instability. 

In today’s housing market, homebuyers should have realistic expectations. Experts predict mortgage rates to inch closer to 6% by the end of the year as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates. Record-low mortgage rates aren’t in the cards again, and that’s likely for the best.

Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.

About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.

How did mortgage rates drop below 3% in the first place?

Economic uncertainty and market volatility — whether during an election cycle or a pandemic — impact the direction of mortgage rates. It’s often said that bad news for the economy is good news for mortgage rates, and vice versa. 

A significant lever for mortgage rates is the federal funds rate, which the Fed keeps low when it needs to stimulate economic growth. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed slashed that benchmark rate to zero to bolster the economy. When there were signs of recovery in 2015, the central bank started raising interest rates again, sending mortgage rates into the 4% to 5% range until 2020. 

The COVID-19 pandemic sparked another economic crisis. To incentivize people to borrow and spend money — and avoid a prolonged recession — the Fed once again cut the federal funds rate to near zero and pumped money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage interest rates fell quickly, bottoming out in the mid-2% range in 2021.

But the combination of supply shocks, record-low rates and an extreme increase in money supply from government stimulus helped send prices way up, according to Erin Sykes, chief economist at NestSeekers International.

In early 2022, the Fed had a new problem on its hands: inflation.

💰 Federal Reserve monetary policy

In a recession, the Federal Reserve tries to spur economic growth through quantitative easing, a monetary policy that consists of cutting the federal funds rate to encourage lending and borrowing to consumers, and increasing its purchase of government-backed bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

If the Fed needs to slow the economy down and reduce the money supply in financial markets, it does opposite: quantitative tightening. By increasing the federal funds rate and tapering its bond-buying programs, the central bank raises the cost of borrowing money, which puts upward pressure on longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates.

What caused mortgage rates to surge again?

With prices surging in 2022, the Fed’s main tool was to adjust interest rates, making credit more expensive and disincentivizing borrowing. As a result of a string of aggressive rate hikes, the federal funds rate went from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it’s remained since last summer. Average mortgage rates skyrocketed, peaking past 8% last October.

Although inflation has gone down, the Fed isn’t ready to start lowering rates just yet. The central bank would like to see evidence of a weaker economy (including consistently lower inflation and higher unemployment) before making any adjustments to its monetary policy.

📈 How the Fed impacts mortgage rates

Though the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it controls the federal funds rate, a short-term interest rate that determines what banks charge each other to borrow money. When the federal funds rate moves up, it impacts longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates, as banks raise interest rates on home loans to keep their profit margins intact.

Why won’t mortgage rates move toward 2% again?

Economists and housing market experts agree that mortgage rates will fall over the next several years, but not below 3%. 

When mortgage rates hit their record lows just a few years ago, the federal funds rate was near zero. As the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, the plan is to do so slowly and incrementally. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects the federal funds rate will take only modest adjustments down. 

In the most recent policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that the federal funds rate “will not go back down to the very low levels that we saw” during the financial crisis, suggesting that the economy can adapt to a more “neutral” benchmark rate range of between 2.4% to 3.8% in the long run, i.e., less tightening, but not too much easing from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.

The Fed would be forced to lower rates close to zero only if there were a dramatic economic shock, such as a pandemic or recession, said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. In that case, if the central bank started purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities again, there’s a possibility mortgage rates could return to those record lows. 

However, without such an upheaval, there’s a floor under how low mortgage rates will go, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll ever drop to their 2020-2021 levels. 

“With the Federal Reserve ending quantitative easing and stepping out of the market for mortgage-backed securities, rates will settle at a much higher level,” said Matthew Walsh, housing economist at Moody’s Analytics. 

Moody’s Analytics predicts mortgage rates will stabilize between 6% and 6.5% over the next few years. That’s high compared with the recent past, yet it’s a historically normal range for mortgage rates.

How can homebuyers adapt to higher mortgage rates?

The housing market is frustrating, but prospective homebuyers are starting to come to terms with this new reality. Following the pandemic, people are moving on with their lives, whether that’s building a family, relocating, downsizing or upgrading. 

For some households, that means making room in their budget for a monthly mortgage payment at a 6% or 7% rate. 

When you monitor mortgage rate movement, you’re usually looking at national averages determined by weekly rate information provided by lenders. While those rates give a picture of the “typical” mortgage rate, that’s not necessarily the rate you’ll get when applying for a mortgage. 

It’s possible to get a better deal on your mortgage. 

To qualify for a mortgage, most lenders require you to have a minimum credit score of 620, but lenders offer the lowest mortgage rates to consumers with excellent credit scores, around 740 and above.

You might also consider purchasing mortgage points, also known as discount points. This is an extra fee you pay upfront in exchange for a lower interest rate. Each mortgage point typically costs 1% of the purchase price of a home and will lower your mortgage rate by 0.25%.

A shorter-term loan like a 15-year or 10-year mortgage will have a lower interest rate than a 30-year fixed mortgage. Your monthly payments will be higher with a shorter-term loan because you’re paying the loan off in less time, but you’ll save big on interest. 

Buying a home is likely the biggest transaction you’ll make in your lifetime. Regardless of the market, carefully assess your needs and what you can afford. 

And don’t hold your breath for 2% mortgage rates.

Source: cnet.com

Apache is functioning normally

Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data

By:
Matthew Graham

Wed, Apr 24 2024, 4:43 PM

Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data

Bonds were weaker in the overnight session on a combination of anxiety over potential sales of US Treasuries in Japan and European economic data.  The domestic session brought actual selling of US Treasuries in the form of the 5yr Treasury auction, but the market already knew about that one.  The auction was reasonably well received and had no impact on trading levels.  Earlier in the morning, Durable Goods came out right in line with expectations and also had essentially no impact.  Overnight weakness was maintained throughout the day with most of the momentum being sideways near recent highs yields. 

    • Durable Goods 
      • 2.6 vs 2.5 f’cast
      • last month revised from 1.3 to 0.7
    • Durables, excluding defense and aircraft
      • 0.2 vs 0.2 f’cast
      • last month revised from 0.7 to 0.4

09:06 AM

Weaker overnight and little-changed after AM econ data.  10yr yield up 4.1bps at 4.644.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19).

10:51 AM

Weakest levels.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 5.6bps at 4.657

01:04 PM

Boring 5yr auction.  No major reaction.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16).  10yr up 4.8bps at 4.649.

03:55 PM

Roughly unchanged from the last update and mostly flat since the late AM hours.

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

There’s a reason so many people have been struggling to purchase a home this year. Not only are housing prices elevated as a result of low inventory, but mortgages are expensive to sign.

As of this writing, the average mortgage rate on a 30-year loan is 6.82%, according to Freddie Mac. But rates have fluctuated a bit since the start of the year, and they’ll likely continue to do so based on general market conditions.

Meanwhile, most mortgage experts expect rates to cool later in the year. But how low will they go? That’s the big question.

Federal Reserve actions could lower borrowing costs for home buyers

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times between 2022 and 2023 to help slow the pace of inflation. While the Fed’s actions don’t always completely correlate to movement in mortgage rates, they have the potential to influence them. As such, it’s not a big surprise that mortgages are currently expensive to sign.

There’s some good news, though. Despite the fact that inflation remains stubbornly elevated at over 3%, which is above the 2% level the Fed is targeting, it’s cooled nicely since 2022. As such, the Fed still thinks it can move forward with three interest rate cuts in 2024, the first of which could come within months.

What this means is that mortgage rates could fall quite a bit between now and the end of the year. But it’s tough to get a handle on how low they’ll go.

More: Check out our picks for the best mortgage lenders

Is it conceivable that mortgage rates will drop to about 6%? Yes. Whether they’ll go lower is the big question, and that’s a hard one to answer right now.

In January, the National Association of Realtors projected that mortgage rates would fall to 6.3% by the fourth quarter of the year. But if rates fall to 6.3% at the start of that quarter, they may be closer to the 6% mark by the end of it.

How to lock in the most competitive mortgage rate you can

It’s hard to know exactly how low mortgage rates will go in 2024. So instead of fixating on that, try to focus on steps you can take to set yourself up for a more attractive mortgage rate.

For one thing, try boosting your credit score. You can do so by paying bills on time and shedding some credit card debt. Checking your credit report for errors is also a great idea.

Also, try to work on reducing your debt-to-income ratio. That measures the percentage of your income that’s allocated toward existing debt payments. Paying off some credit card debt could help in this regard, too.

Finally, be prepared to shop around. You never know when one lender might have a better rate to offer you than another.

It’s fair to assume that mortgages will be less expensive to sign by the time 2024 gets close to wrapping up. But how much less expensive is a question that remains tough to answer.

Source: fool.com