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MBS RECAP: No Easy Answers Today; Still Anyone’s Game

Posted To: MBS Commentary

No Easy Answers Today; Still Anyone's Game Bonds were weaker earlier in the trading session but rallied back mid-morning before coasting mostly sideways into the close. Bond bulls were frustrated by the inability to break the floor at 1.27-1.28% in 10yr yields. Bond bears were frustrated by the clear unwillingness to explore new highs compared to yesterday. In other words, it was an "inside day" with lower highs and higher lows, and part of a 2-day consolidation following the highest yields in 11+ months. Such consolidations can be preludes to big bounces OR renewed selling pressure. There weren't any major clues in today's session about which side is going to win. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm Jobless Claims 861 vs 765 f'cast, 848k prev Import…(read more)

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Mortgage rates shoot up to highest levels since mid-November – The Washington Post

Mortgage rates shoot up to highest levels since mid-November  The Washington Post

Mortgage and refinance rates today, Feb. 20, and rate forecast for next week

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates  Average mortgage rates nudged higher on Friday. It was a bad week for these rates. And they’re now hovering around the 3% mark even for […]

MBS Day Ahead: Bond Buyers Sitting on Hands; Which MBS Coupon Now?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

We talked about momentum indicators being 'oversold' yesterday–a possible prelude to a friendly bounce in bonds. If that narrative is going to play out, it's running out of time very quickly. There was some potential for a positive outcome early in the overnight session, but as the trading day progresses, bonds are moving steadily back toward their weakest levels. Those with the strongest stomachs can still hold out hope that 10yr yields have temporarily topped out somewhere under 1.33%, but all bets are off if that ceiling breaks today (and we're only 2bps away at 9am). If the pace of bond market weakness has caught you off guard in 2021, you're not alone. Many analysts and traders are struggling to justify current levels. In their defense, it's very easy to get caught…(read more)

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Mortgage And Refinance Rates Today, Feb. 17 | Rates rising or steady – The Mortgage Reports

Mortgage And Refinance Rates Today, Feb. 17 | Rates rising or steady  The Mortgage Reports

Fed sounds alarm on commercial real estate, business bankruptcy

he Federal Reserve warned of significant risks of business bankruptcies and steep drops in commercial real estate prices in a report published on Friday.

MBS RECAP: Looking For Silver Linings Despite Falling Sky

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Looking For Silver Linings Despite Falling Sky After a huge day of snowball selling yesterday, bonds started out in weaker territory today. Hugely strong Retail Sales data and sharply higher inflation told rates to keep on rising, but they quickly refused. Several hours later, a decidedly weak 20yr bond auction made the same suggestion (i.e. higher rates), but yields continued holding modest gains. As far as days with intraday yields hitting their highest levels in almost a year are concerned, that's about as much resilience as we could hope for. Tomorrow will be critical in confirming or rejecting today's defiant show of support. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm Retail Sales 5.3 vs 1.1 f'cast, -1.0 prev Producer Prices (Inflation, y/y) 2.0 vs 1.1 f'cast,…(read more)

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Intense Demand and Low Mortgage Rates Drive Home Values to Record Highs – PRNewswire

Intense Demand and Low Mortgage Rates Drive Home Values to Record Highs  PRNewswire

Mortgage hedgers won’t add fuel to rates fire, JPMorgan says

Today, the mortgage players who most actively hedged — Fannie and Freddie, real estate investment trusts and large bank servicers — have significantly reduced their need to to do so, analysts said.

Existing Home Sales Rise, But Inventories Hamper Results

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Existing home sales started the 2021 with a small increase from the December sale levels, the second consecutive monthly gain. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said transactions that include pre-owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, increased 0.6 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.69 million units compared to 6.76 million in December. The month’s results are up 23.7 percent from the annual rate of 5.41 million sales in January 2020. Existing home sales have increased in seven of the last eight months, even though pending sales, generally considered a leading indicator for the following one or two existing sales reports, have posted four straight monthly losses. Analysts surveyed by Econoday had expected a slight pull-back in…(read more)

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