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Back in late 2023, we got in the car with the Federal Reserve with the promise of a trip to our favorite place: the land of lower interest rates. In 2024, we keep asking “are we there yet?” The more we ask, the farther we seem to be from the destination.

This trip began with all the best intentions. Softer inflation and cooler economic data led the Fed to expect an opportunity to cut rates several times in 2024.  The Fed communicated as much in mid-December.  Markets took things a step further with futures contracts pricing in 6 cuts by the end of the year.  “6 rate cuts” was a refrain that echoed throughout the mortgage and housing industries.  Suddenly, too many people were risking disappointment by not understanding the HIGHLY conditional logic behind the 6 cut mantra.

It wasn’t necessarily a mistake for the market to get so far ahead of the Fed’s official outlook.  After all, the Fed has a history of cutting rates MUCH faster than its projections suggest.  But the decision would ultimately be dependent on continued progress on inflation, and more economic cooling.

With the release of this week’s inflation data, we now have two consecutive months that raise serious objections to the notion that the Fed will be able to cut any time soon.  

This is a chart of the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in year over year terms.  This is the inflation metric that the Fed wants to see at 2% and they’ve been clear in saying they can cut rates if they’re confident that we’ll get there.  It shows clear, substantial progress toward that goal:

The following chart shows the same thing, but now in more granular month-over-month terms.  This allows us to better assess progress toward the 2% annual goal.  It shows the past range that’s been consistent with that annual goal, but more importantly, it shows inflation moving up and out of that range last month.  This week’s report maintained the same “too high” level.

The news wasn’t quite as bad from the week’s other key inflation report, but it certainly didn’t help.  The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures wholesale inflation, has also now seen the highest two consecutive months since inflation first began to calm down in 2022. 

While PPI doesn’t usually move markets as much as CPI, and while the results were arguably not as troubling, it actually caused a bigger jump in rates because it added insult to CPI’s injury.  It also happened to be flanked by upbeat labor market data.  The following chart shows ongoing jobless claims, which had recently crested 1.9 million for only the second time since  hitting long term lows.

On the road to lower rates, this week’s economic reports are tantamount to the driver actually making good on the threat to “turn this car around!” Here’s how rates reacted, as seen in terms of 10yr Treasury yields (highly correlated with mortgage rates in terms of day to day movement).

And here’s the context going back to the initial rate rally in November and December:

The trajectory for mortgage rates is substantially similar as seen in the chart below, at least if you’re looking at the blue line.  The orange line shows Freddie Mac’s weekly rate survey which was badly tricked by the timing of rate movement over the past two weeks in conjunction with its laggy methodology.  Specifically, it’s a 5 day average ending on Wednesday.  As such, if the previous week sees decent improvement on Thursday and Friday, and the new week doesn’t see most of its deterioration until Thursday and Friday, the most recent mark will move down instead of up.  This is exactly what happened during this cycle.

Looking ahead, next week’s obvious focus is Wednesday’s Fed Announcement.  To be sure, there is no chance of a rate cut at this meeting.  Instead, markets will focus intently on the Fed’s updated rate projections.  These only come out 4 times a year, so this will be the first update since December 13th and it will provide valuable insight as to how the past 2 months of higher inflation readings have affected the Fed’s rate outlook. 

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Mortgage rates started the week relatively low, but they’re back up today.

Average 30-year mortgage rates are around 20 basis points up from where they were earlier this week, and are now in the upper 6% range, according to Zillow data.

Mortgage rates are expected to go down in 2024, but they’ve been elevated so far this year in response to still-high inflation.

Price growth has slowed significantly from when it peaked in 2022, but it’s still above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. In February, the Consumer Price Index actually inched up a bit from the previous month.

Because the path to lower inflation is proving to be a bit bumpy, we’ll likely need to wait a few more months until mortgage rates fall. And if inflation continues to stagnate, we might not see rates drop until much later in the year.

Mortgage Rates Today

Mortgage type Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow

Real Estate on Zillow

Mortgage Refinance Rates Today

Mortgage type Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow

Real Estate on Zillow

Mortgage Calculator

Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s interest rates will affect your monthly payments.

Mortgage Calculator

$1,161
Your estimated monthly payment

Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
  • Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
  • Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
  • Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months

By clicking on “More details,” you’ll also see how much you’ll pay over the entire length of your mortgage, including how much goes toward the principal vs. interest.

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

This week’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.74%, according to Freddie Mac. This is a 14-basis-point decrease from the previous week.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.

The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you’ll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms or adjustable rates. 

15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

Average 15-year mortgage rates inched down to 6.16% this week, according to Freddie Mac data. This is a six-point decrease since the week before.

If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.

How Do Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages?

The Federal Reserve has increased the federal funds rate dramatically to try to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. So far, inflation has slowed significantly, but it’s still a bit above the Fed’s 2% target rate.

Mortgage rates aren’t directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed hikes to affect the broader economy. 

The Fed has indicated that it’s likely done hiking rates and that it could start cutting soon. This will likely allow mortgage rates to trend down later this year.

When Will Mortgage Rates Go Down?

Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they’ve moderated somewhat in recent months, and are expected to drop further this year.

In February 2024, the Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% year-over-year. Inflation has slowed significantly since it peaked last year, which is good news for mortgage rates. But it has to slow further before rates will begin to fall.

For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.

A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.

Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans. 

Molly Grace

Mortgage Reporter

Source: businessinsider.com

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This morning’s line-up of econ data is certainly not the most relevant to the bond market, but the NY Fed Manufacturing index has registered an impact at times.  This is not one of those times.  While volume suggests traders waiting to make trades at 8:30am, there was no bias toward higher or lower levels at that particular time.  Some selling pressure was already in place starting at 8am and more selling kicked in just before 9am.   The other data wasn’t relevant, but the big miss in NY Fed (-20.9 vs -7.0) arguably could have been.  The fact that it offered no help is a sign of the troubled times for bonds.  

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Editor’s Note: The Mortgage Mix is RISMedia’s weekly highlight reel of need-to-know mortgage-industry happenings. Watch for it each Friday afternoon.

  • According to the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® from Freddie Mac, last updated Thursday, March 14, 2024, the 30-year mortgage rate sits at 6.74%, while the 15-year mortgage rate currently stands at 6.16%.
  • The latest Weekly Mortgage Application Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) found that mortgage applications increased by 7.1% during the week of March 8, 2024.
  • “Purchase application volume increased for the week but remains about 11% below last year’s level,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and chief economist. “By contrast, refinance volume picked up by 12%, with a larger, 24% increase in the government refinance index. While these percentage increases are large, the level of refinance activity remains quite low, and we expect that most of this activity reflects borrowers who took out a loan at or near the peak of rates in the past two years.”
  • According to the National Mortgage News, homeowners insurance rates increased nearly 19% in 2023.

Source: rismedia.com

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Quiet Conclusion to a Raucous Week

By:
Matthew Graham

Fri, Mar 15 2024, 4:42 PM

Quiet Conclusion to a Raucous Week

For a short while this morning, it looked as if bonds would break up and over the recent 4.32+ ceiling in 10yr yields, but trading calmed down and trended sideways in a narrow range for the rest of the day.  It was a calm conclusion to what has otherwise been the most damaging week since October.  But don’t let the calm fool you.  It’s likely to be calm before the storm considering next week brings a new Fed dot plot for the first time since December 13th.

    • Import Prices
      • 0.3 vs 0.3 ‘cast, 0.8 prev
    • NY Fed Manufacturing
      • -20.9 vs -7 f’cast, -2.4 prev
    • Industrial Production
      • 0.1 vs 0.0 f’cast, -0.5 prev
    • Consumer Sentiment
      • 76.5 vs 76.9 f’cast, 76.9 prev

10:18 AM

Modestly stronger overnight, but weaker during domestic hours.  10yr up 2bps at 4.312.  MBS down 9 ticks (.28).

12:38 PM

Modest push back after hitting lows around 10am.  MBS now down only 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up only 1bp at 4.3.

02:26 PM

Sideways at barely weaker levels.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 1.2bps at 4.304

04:41 PM

Same levels as previous update.  Same sideways drift.

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Even though Tuesday’s consumer-oriented inflation report (CPI) had the biggest potential to cause drama for rates, it was today’s wholesale inflation report that did the most damage.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed wholesale inflation running hotter than expected by quite a wide margin overall (0.6% month-over-month versus a median forecast of 0.3%).  Even after stripping out more volatile food and energy prices (i.e. “core” inflation), PPI was up 0.3% versus forecasts of 0.2%.  

These might seem like small numbers, but keep in mind that the Fed’s inflation target is 2.0% annually at the core level.  Core readings of 0.4% in CPI and 0.3% in PPI pencil out to 4.8% and 3.6% respectively. 

Inflation is the biggest concern for interest rates, so it’s no surprise to see rates moving higher.  Today’s increase brings the average to tier, conventional, 30yr fixed rate back above 7% for the first time in a week.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Kelly Suzan Waggoner
March 13, 2024 at 10:46 AM
Daily mortgage rates for March 13, 2024: Lower rates on popular 30-year terms despite new CPI data

Mortgage rates appear to be dropping on popular 30-year terms as of Wednesday, March 13, 2024. The current average rate for a 30-year mortgage is 6.90% for purchase and 6.84% for refinance, down slightly from Tuesday’s 6.95% for purchase and 6.94% for refinance. The average rate on a 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage is 7.02%.

Rates on 15-year and 20-year terms increased moderately after Consumer Price Index data released on March 12 showed a month-over-month increase in consumer prices, a widely used indicator for inflation.

Purchase rates for Wednesday, March 13, 2024

  • 30-year fixed rate — 6.90%

  • 20-year fixed rate — 6.70%

  • 15-year fixed rate — 6.49%

  • 10-year fixed rate — 6.37%

  • 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 6.46%

  • 30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.71%

  • 30-year fixed VA rate — 7.01%

  • 30-year fixed jumbo rate — 7.04%

Refinance rates for Wednesday, March 13, 2024

  • 30-year fixed rate — 6.84%

  • 20-year fixed rate — 6.71%

  • 15-year fixed rate — 6.53%

  • 10-year fixed rate — 6.36%

  • 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 6.33%

  • 30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.75%

  • 30-year fixed VA rate — 7.78%

  • 30-year fixed jumbo rate — 6.99%

Current mortgage rates for March 13, 2024

Inflation has slowed in recent months, and market conditions are favorable, with the Biden Administration announcing more student loan forgiveness on February 21. While the Fed rate does not determine mortgage rates, it sets benchmarks that indirectly affect rates on financial products like mortgages, personal loans and deposit accounts. The Fed has a firm goal of a 2% inflation rate, and with favorable economic reports on the job market, it’s unlikely the reserve will cut rates until that goal is more of a reality.

Mortgage rates in the news

After increasing the target interest rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, the Federal Reserve — the U.S.’s central bank — held rates steady at 5.25% to 5.5% at its meeting in late January. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on March 6, 2023, to House lawmakers signaled hesitance to cut rates, with a decision dependent on “see[ing] a little more data” that inflation will return to the Fed’s 2% target.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet next week on March 19 and March 20, but economists aren’t expecting a cut to the target interest rate just yet, with market watchers telling Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that a cut is “more likely” to come this summer.

The Fed’s cut to target rates later in the year could push average mortgage rates even lower — a boon to future homebuyers.

Frequently asked questions about mortgage rates

  • What is a mortgage rate? The rate of interest paid by the borrower to a lender for the length of a loan term. There are two types of rates: fixed and variable. Fixed rates remain the same over the life of the loan, while variable rates fluctuate based on market conditions.

  • What are mortgage lenders? Lenders are financial institutions that loan money to homebuyers. A lender is different from a loan servicer, which typically handles the operational tasks of your loan, like processing payments, talking directly with borrowers and sending monthly statements.

  • What does it mean to refinance a mortgage? It’s a process of trading in your current mortgage to another lender for lower rates and better terms than your current loan. With a refinance, the new lender pays off your old mortgage and you then pay your monthly statements from the new lender.

  • What factors influence mortgage rates? Mortgage rates are determined by many factors that include inflation rates, economic conditions, housing market trends and the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate. Lenders also consider your personal credit score, the amount available for your down payment, the property you’re interested in and other terms of the loan you’re requesting, like 30-year or 15-year offers.

  • How do I get the best mortgage rate? Knowing your credit score can help you shop around for lenders you’re likely to get approval through, as well as understand the type of mortgage for your lifestyle and income. The best mortgage rates typically go to borrowers with good to excellent credit — typically a FICO credit score of at least 670 — though even with fair credit, you may be able to find a mortgage offering decent rates. Many lenders offer lower rates in exchange for “mortgage points” — upfront fees you pay to your lender.

  • Fixed rate vs. adjustable rate — what’s the difference? Fixed-rate mortgages offer a consistent interest rate over the life of your loan, whereas adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) typically start with a lower fixed rate for an agreed-on time and then adjust to a variable rate based on market conditions for the remainder of your term. With an ARM, you could end up paying more or less after your initial rate. Choosing between these two rates depends on your financial goals and tolerance for risk.

  • When is the best time to lock in a mortgage rate? Mortgage rates can fluctuate daily, so it’s best to lock in a rate when you’re comfortable with the offered rate and conditions of the loan.

  • Can I negotiate my mortgage rate? It’s not likely — lenders consider the market conditions and other financial factors when determining rates. You can, however, ask about how you can reduce costs in other ways when comparing mortgage lenders.

Current refinance mortgage rates for March 2024

Sources

Source: aol.com

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LOS ANGELES — More homeowners eager to sell their home are lowering their initial asking price in a bid to entice prospective buyers as the spring homebuying season gets going.

Some 14.6% of U.S. homes listed for sale last month had their price lowered, according to Realtor.com. That’s up from 13.2% a year earlier, the first annual increase since May. In January, the percentage of homes on the market with price reductions was 14.7%.

The share of home listings that have had their price lowered is running slightly higher than the monthly average on data going back to January 2017.

That trend bodes well for prospective homebuyers navigating a housing market that remains unaffordable for many Americans. A chronically low supply of homes for sale has kept pushing home prices higher overall even as U.S. home sales slumped the past two years.

“Sellers are cutting prices, but it just means we’re seeing smaller price gains than we would otherwise have seen,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

The pickup in the share of home listings with price cuts is a sign the housing market is shifting back toward a more balanced dynamic between buyers and sellers. Rock-bottom mortgage rates in the first two years of the pandemic armed homebuyers with more purchasing power, which fueled bidding wars, driving the median sale price for previously occupied U.S. homes 42% higher from 2019 through 2022.

“Essentially, the price reductions suggest far more normalcy in the housing market than we’ve seen over the last couple of years,” Hale said.

The share of properties that had their listing price lowered peaked in October 2018 at 21.7%. It got nearly as high as that — 21.5% — in October 2022.

Last year, the percentage of home listings that had their asking price lowered jumped to 18.9% in October, as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage surged to a 23-year high of 7.79%, according to Freddie Mac.

Mortgage rates eased in December amid expectations that inflation has cooled enough for the Federal Reserve begin cutting its key short term rate as soon as this spring. Those expectations were dampened following stronger-than-expected reports on inflation and the economy this year, which led to a rise in mortgage rates through most of February.

That’s put pressure on sellers to scale back their asking price to “meet buyers where they are,” Hale said.

That pressure could ease if, as many economists expect, mortgage rates decline this year.

Source: triblive.com

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Data Calling Fed’s Confidence Into Question

By:
Matthew Graham

Thu, Mar 14 2024, 4:40 PM

Data Calling Fed’s Confidence Into Question

As the new year began, the late 2023 assumption of multiple rate cuts from the Fed quickly gave way to the notion of needing “just a bit more confidence” that inflation was sustainably on the path to 2.0% before rate cuts could commence.  That shift in verbiage coincided with a shift in inflation numbers in January’s data.  Now that February’s inflation data is mostly in, we find inflation running nearly as hot as last month at the consumer level and even hotter at the producer level.  Today’s PPI confirmed the latter and the bond market didn’t love it.  Jobless claims added insult to injury with a big drop in continued claims and big revision (lower) to last week’s 1.9m+ reading.  All this with less than a week to go before the next Fed announcement and dot plot.

    • Core MM PPI
      • 0.3 vs 0.2 f’cast, 0.5 prev
    • Core YY PPI
      • 2.0 vs 1.9 f’cast, 2.0 prev
    • Headline PPI MM
      • 0.6 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.3 prev
    • Retail Sales
      • 0.6 vs 0.8 f’cast, -1.1 prev
    • Jobless Claims
      • 209k vs 218k f’cast, 217k prev
    • Continued Claims
      • 1811k vs 1900k f’cast, 1906k prev

08:35 AM

After the data, 10yr at 4.223% (up 3.5bps on the day). MBS down 6 ticks (.19).

09:45 AM

Additional weakness.  10yr up 7.3bps at 4.261.  MBS down 10 ticks (.31).

11:57 AM

More weakness.  MBS down 15 ticks (.47) and 10yr up almost 11bps at 4.294.

02:28 PM

MBS are down 17 ticks (.53). 10yr yields are up 11.2bps at 4.30.

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Affiliate links for the products on this page are from partners that compensate us (see our advertiser disclosure with our list of partners for more details). However, our opinions are our own. See how we rate mortgages to write unbiased product reviews.

Mortgage rates fell late last week, and they remain low today. Average 30-year mortgage rates have generally been hovering in the 6.30% to 6.40% range this week, according to Zillow data. This is a significant drop from the start of the month, when rates were above 6.60%.

Where mortgage rates go next depends on the economy. Though the latest data suggests that the economy is slowly coming into better balance, any hotter-than-expected reports could cause rates to spike like they did in February. 

As long as inflation continues to slow and the labor market doesn’t heat back up, mortgage rates should go down in 2024.

Mortgage rates have remained elevated so far this year as markets have had to adjust their expectations of when the Federal Reserve might finally start cutting the federal funds rate. Right now, investors are pricing in a nearly 60% probability that the Fed will cut this rate by 25 basis points at its June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

This means that we could see mortgage rates inch down just ahead of the summer months. But they may not be substantially lower until we get closer to the end of the year.

Today’s mortgage rates

Mortgage type Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow

Real Estate on Zillow

Today’s refinance rates

Mortgage type Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow

Real Estate on Zillow

Mortgage Calculator

Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s interest rates will affect your monthly payments:

Mortgage Calculator

$1,161
Your estimated monthly payment

Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
  • Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
  • Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
  • Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months

By clicking on “More details,” you’ll also see how much you’ll pay over the entire length of your mortgage, including how much goes toward the principal vs. interest.

Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024

Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased dramatically in 2022 and throughout most of 2023.

Many forecasts expect rates to fall this year now that inflation has been coming down. In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.1%, a significant slowdown compared when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022. But we’ll likely need to see more slowing before rates can drop substantially.

For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.

A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.

Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans. 

When Will House Prices Come Down?

We aren’t likely to see home prices drop this year. In fact, they’ll probably rise.

Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 3.20% in 2024 and 0.30% in 2025, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 4.10% increase in 2024 and a 3.30% increase in 2024.

Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. But rates have since eased, removing some of that pressure. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will likely push prices up.

What Happens to House Prices in a Recession?

House prices usually drop during a recession, but not always. When it does happen, it’s generally because fewer people can afford to purchase homes, and the low demand forces sellers to lower their prices.

How Much Mortgage Can I Afford?

A mortgage calculator can help you determine how much house you can afford. Play around with different home prices and down payment amounts to see how much your monthly payment could be, and think about how that fits in with your overall budget.

Typically, experts recommend spending no more than 28% of your gross monthly income on housing expenses. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn’t exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.

The lower your rate, the more you’ll be able to borrow, so shop around and get preapproved with multiple mortgage lenders to see who can offer you the best rate. But remember not to borrow more than what your budget can comfortably handle.

Molly Grace

Mortgage Reporter

Source: businessinsider.com