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Apache is functioning normally

The average lender was offering slightly higher rates this morning when compared to yesterdays latest levels, but things began to change after 10am ET.  That’s when today’s economic data caused the bond market to erase its day over day losses and ultimately rally to the best levels in more than two weeks.

That’s good news for mortgage rates because mortgage rates are primarily driven by trading levels in the bond market.  The catch is that mortgage lenders don’t like to change rates once they’re set for the day unless bonds move enough to force their hands.  We saw just enough movement for most lenders to amend their initial offerings, thus bringing the average slightly below yesterday’s.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

Today’s mortgage rates

Average mortgage rates just inched lower yesterday. And they were effectively unchanged over the last seven days.

Next week, the direction those rates take will probably hinge almost entirely on Friday’s jobs report and appearances before Congress of the Federal Reserve’s chair. (More on those below.) Of course, nobody knows what they will say. So, once again, I’m forced to say mortgage rates next week could go either way.

Find and lock a low rate

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30-year fixed 7.27% 7.29% -0.02
Conventional 15-year fixed 6.68% 6.71% -0.02
Conventional 20-year fixed 7.11% 7.14% -0.02
Conventional 10-year fixed 6.59% 6.61% -0.03
30-year fixed FHA 6.31% 6.98% -0.08
30-year fixed VA 6.64% 6.75% Unchanged
5/1 ARM Conventional 6.31% 7.39% Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a low rate

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

There’s no such thing as certainty in future mortgage rates. However, the chances of their gently gliding lower in 2024 are good. Unfortunately, it’s looking unlikely that the happy trend will arrive before late spring, and possibly well into the summer.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations are now:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.

What’s moving current mortgage rates

Next week’s jobs report

Two monthly economic reports vie for the top spot as the most consequential for mortgage rates. One, the jobs report, is due next Friday. And the other, the consumer price index (CPI), is scheduled for the following Tuesday.

We’ll deal with the CPI next week. But let’s look at what the jobs report (formally called the employment situation report) for February might do.

With almost all economic data, mortgage rates tend to fall when the figures in a report are lower than markets are expecting. One exception crops up in the jobs report. It’s better for mortgage rates when the unemployment rate is higher than expected.

Before each report, analysts come up with a consensus forecast. And many investors trade ahead of publication based on the forecast, pricing it into mortgage rates and assets. So, when the forecast is wrong, investors are left scrambling to buy or sell assets as they rebalance their portfolios to reflect reality. The asset that largely determines mortgage rates is a type of bond called a mortgage-backed security (MBS).

So, let’s see what markets are expecting, according to MarketWatch, from the jobs report:

  • Nonfarm payrolls (new jobs added during the month) — 210,000 in February, down from 353,000 in January
  • Unemployment rate — 3.7% in February, unchanged from January
  • Hourly wages — 0.2% in February, down from 0.6% in January

To be clear, mortgage rates tend to fall when economic data are worse than expected. So, we’d like nonfarm payrolls to be below 210,000, hourly wages to have risen more slowly than 0.2%, and the unemployment rate to be higher than 3.7%.

Chances are, the jobs report will on Friday swamp the effects of all the other economic reports next week. But a few of the lesser ones might cause some volatility earlier in the week.

Other important reports next week

The ones most likely to do so are:

  • January factory orders on Tuesday — Expected to fall to -3.1% from December’s +0.2%
  • February purchasing managers’ index (PMI) from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — Expected to fall slightly
  • February ADP employment report for the private sector on Wednesday — Expected to rise to 150,000 from 107,000 in January. Sometimes seen as a bellwether for the jobs report
  • January job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) on Wednesday — Openings are expected to dip slightly to 8.9 million from 9 million in December. A helpful peek under the labor market’s hood
  • Second reading of productivity during the last quarter of 2023 (Q4/23) on Thursday — Expected to be a shade lower than the first reading at 3.1% compared to 3.2%

We’d need to see big variations from the analysts’ consensus forecasts for these to move mortgage rates far or for long. But any of these might push those rates up or down.

The Fed

Although these and other reports routinely move mortgage rates even when inflation and the Federal Reserve are not front of mind, things are different now. Investors tend to view the data through the prism of how they might affect the Fed’s decisions on the timing and scope of future cuts to general interest rates.

One way they can gauge that is by listening to what top Fed officials say in public. And those have nine speaking engagements next week.

Most importantly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to provide evidence to Congress next Wednesday and Thursday. His voice is highly influential and his testimony could easily move mortgage rates.

The Fed will next decide on rate policy on Mar. 20. Very few expect it to cut general interest rates that day. But Wall Street hopes it will strongly hint at cuts at the May or June meetings of its rate-setting committee.

Economic reports next week

See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.

In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.

  • Monday — Nothing
  • Tuesday — February ISM PMI. Also factory orders for January
  • Wednesday — Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress. Also February’s ADP employment report and January’s JOLTS
  • Thursday — Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress (again). Plus productivity in Q4/23. And initial jobless claims for the week ending Mar. 2
  • Friday — February jobs report

The jobs report is by far the most important publication next week. But watch out, too, for the Fed chair’s appearances before Congress.

Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you

Mortgage rates forecast for next week

Once again, mortgage rates are unpredictable next week. Whether they move higher or lower will largely depend on the jobs report (which regularly confounds analysts’ forecasts) and on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell tells Congress.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.

And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.

Your part

But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:

  1. Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
  2. Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
  3. Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
  4. Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
  5. Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?

Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.

Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:

  • Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
  • Interest — The price of borrowing
  • Taxes — Specifically property taxes
  • Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance

Our mortgage calculator can help with these.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.

But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Source: themortgagereports.com

Apache is functioning normally

Bonds Leading Off in a Friendly Direction

By:
Matthew Graham

Fri, Mar 1 2024, 4:56 PM

Bonds Leading Off in a Friendly Direction

With ISM Manufacturing, Friday brought the only other reasonably important economic report of the week after Thursday’s PCE data, and it did not disappoint.  Well, actually, it did disappoint anyone hoping to see strength and resilience in the sector which is why it did not disappoint those hoping to see lower rates.  Not only did the headline dip well into contractionary territory, but the employment gauge was the 2nd lowest since breaking out of the covid lockdown period in mid 2020.  Timing matters with the big jobs report looming next Friday.  Prices also decelerated slightly.  With that, bonds surged to the best levels in more than two weeks, effectively taking a lead-off before confirming a friendly range breakout.  Caveat: that confirmation requires next week’s data to avoid crushing expectations.

    • ISM Manufacturing
      • 47.8 vs 49.5 f’cast, 49.1 prev
    • ISM Prices
      • 52.5 vs 53 f’cast, 52.9 prev
    • Consumer Sentiment
      • 76.9 vs 79.6 f’cast, 79 prev
    • Inflation expectations
      • 1y up 0.1
      • 5y unchanged

10:24 AM

slightly weaker in the early AM, but rallying nicely after 10am data.  10yr down 5.5bps at 4.197.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16).

12:38 PM

Rally accelerated into 11am and is holding gains.  10yr down 4.7bps at 4.197.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16). 

04:42 PM

Going out at the best levels of the day.  MBS up 10 ticks (.31).  10yr down 7.2bps at 4.182.

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

One of the downsides of rates being very close to the highest levels in months is that it doesn’t take much of nudge to hit new highs.  That was ALMOST the case today as the average lender moved just slightly higher compared to yesterday’s latest levels.  The average borrower might not see much of a detectable difference in loan quotes in the past 24 hours, but it was just enough to push 30yr fixed rates very close to the highest levels since November 2023.  

There were no interesting or obvious catalysts for the move, nor would we expect there to be when it comes to the level of volatility seen on almost any day of the past 2 weeks. 

A top tier, conventional 30yr fixed scenario is now well into the 7% range for the average lender.  While this is still far below the multi-decade highs seen in October, it’s noticeably higher than the end of 2023 when lenders were closer to the 6.625% level.

While we’ll have to wait until next week for the most important economic data (the stuff with the biggest chance of causing rates to rise or fall) the next few days provide a few supporting actors.  These economic reports could create a bit more movement than we’ve seen in the past two weeks, but that depends entirely on how far they fall from forecasts.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

In the bigger picture, mortgage rates would still be best described as “trending gently higher,” but in the shorter term, today was a victory.  The average lender moved from quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates near 3 month highs yesterday to the lowest levels of the week today.  The disclaimer is that this says more about the narrowness of the recent range than the ground covered.

Another disclaimer is that you may well encounter mortgage rate headlines that say something completely different today.  This would almost certainly be due to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey number rising to the highest levels in more than 2 months.  Freddie’s survey is an average of the 5 days ending yesterday, nor does it account for points or a few other idiosyncrasies that can cause it to deviate from the reality in the trenches.  

That reality is a conventional 30yr fixed rate that remains in the low 7% range for top tier scenarios.  If someone were to pay discount points or receive a relatively more aggressive quote, the high 6% range isn’t out of the question.  It’s just not “average.” 

Today’s improvement was ostensibly driven by the bond market’s reaction to hotly anticipated inflation data.  There is indeed a case to be made that the as-expected reading on PCE inflation helped rates recover today, but other economic data was also helpful (jobless claims and Chicago PMI).

Ultimately, today’s data is not what the market is truly waiting for.  The most important reports hit next week, culminating with Friday’s big jobs report.  The following week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at least as important.  More than anything, those two reports will shape the dialogue in financial markets and the Fed meeting that takes place the week after CPI.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

TPO, Warehouse, Appraisal Mgt., Homeowner Engagement Tools; Credit Changes

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TPO, Warehouse, Appraisal Mgt., Homeowner Engagement Tools; Credit Changes

By:
Rob Chrisman

Fri, Mar 1 2024, 11:09 AM

As I watch it snow here in the Sierra, hey, if you’re going to watch one video this week, watch this 15-second classic (with sound) on how our banking system works. You’ll watch it at least twice, and let your kids figure it out. Since its all-time high of 30,456 in 1921, the bank population in the United States had declined to only 4,377 at the end of 2020, a decline of about 86 percent. Thousands of residential lenders hope they’re not involved in the same trend. I mention this because, speaking of numerical trends, the United States is producing more oil than any country has ever produced in the history of the world: 13 million barrels per day. It’s been economically punishing for the countries in OPEC+, which has seen its global market share drop to a new low of 48 percent. This is an interesting issue when it comes to inflation, which helps drive mortgage rates, and will be a very interesting issue in the next eight months when it is expected that two octogenarians will be vying for the top job. (Found here, this week’s podcast is brought to you by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite’s three core products – nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics – unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. Hear an interview with Nerdwallet’s Kate Wood on housing market supply and advice for potential homebuyers.)

Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software

To access the largest subset of home buyers in the market, lenders are redefining their go to market strategy. Milestones’ homeowner engagement solution goes well beyond a “What’s my home worth?” assessment. It enables lenders to proactively guide consumers through the entire homeownership journey with weekly touchpoints that are relevant and specific to their home. With essential resources for home services, home improvements, home document storage, and a homeowner dashboard to monitor and track their activity in one place, this platform is the one-stop shop for all things home. What sets them apart is its fully white-labeled capabilities that provides a seamless consumer experience that keeps YOUR lending products and partners top of mind. Adopt the ultimate homeowner engagement solution to connect more meaningfully with your prospects and borrowers and uncover new opportunities to boost your revenue. Book a meeting with sales today.

“Innovation-Powered Precision, Time-Tested Excellence! With a foundation built on 43 years of experience, PCV Murcor brings a deep understanding of our clients’ goals that complements appraisal modernization. Over our long history, we have honed our processes to provide reliable and unparalleled appraisal management services, setting the standard for excellence in the industry. Our use of state-of-the-art AI technology ensures precision and efficiency in every aspect of our service. AI’s ability to enhance efficiency, accuracy, and flexibility is reshaping the way properties are evaluated with distinct advantages. To learn more about our future-ready solutions for today’s appraisal management, visit here.”

“PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending, a subsidiary of Hilltop Holdings (NYSE: HTH), focuses on relationship-driven business with long-term success, by-the-way, have you heard about our BTW Services? We are pleased to offer all customers our Broker-Dealer, Treasury Management and Warehouse Lending (BTW) services. Our Broker-Dealers can help customers hedge their origination pipelines by buying and selling TBAs, specified pools and whole loan trading. Our Treasury Management team helps customers with escrow and cash management. Finally, the Warehouse Lending team provides customers with confidence to meet their loan funding needs. If you are interested in learning more about our BTW Services please contact Deric Barnett or Justin Tannen.”

TPO, Broker, and Correspondent Product News

“It’s been a busy first quarter for the Newrez Correspondent team! Delegated pilot programs for both 2nd Mortgages & Non-QM have been launched with more exciting news on the way. Enhancements to come include HomeReady® & Home Possible® $2500 grant products; FHLMC’s GreenCHOICE; FHA HUD 184/Heritage; Co-Issue offering, along with improvements to our Non-QM Smart Series programs, Enote expansion and more. Soon, our sales team will present our top 2023 clients their Premier Partner Plaques (PPP). This PPP award recognizes the partnership and is awarded to our lenders who finished at the top for loans funded in 2023. There are so many reasons to be aligned with a top tier partner, and Newrez Correspondent is that partner! For those not signed up with Newrez and looking to take advantage of these enhancements, or existing partners who want to become Premier, contact our sales team to learn more.”

Rocket Pro TPO has announced an update to its offerings, including its Credit Upgrade program. This initiative, previously exclusive, is now available to all partners. It provides a no-cost, rapid rescore service for clients with credit scores between 570 and 779, aiming to help them qualify for better loan products and rates. Additionally, Rocket Pro TPO offers a Home Equity Loan product that allows clients to protect their low mortgage rates while tapping into their home’s equity at a competitive rate. This option provides a fixed-rate, lump-sum payment, offering a stable alternative to variable-rate loans. For those interested in learning more about Rocket Pro TPO’s cost-saving products, the replay of their latest IGNITE Live seminar is available on their YouTube channel: IGNITE Live Replay. For more information on Broker or Non-Delegated Correspondent partnerships, contact Rocket Pro TPO to learn more.

Angel Oak Mortgage Solution is now offering Bank Statement Loans tailored specifically for self-employed individuals who have been in business for 1-year.

Reach more clients with LoanStream’s Non-QM Programs with loan amounts up to $4 Million. LoanStream NaNQ / Non-QM Programs are proprietary programs specifically created to fulfill mortgage program options for LoanStream brokers with non-prime programs.

The 5 Cs of Credit

A good trivia question for underwriters, or loan originators, is, “What are the 5 C’s?” The answer is character, capacity, capital, collateral, and conditions. Those are from a simpler time, but the fundamentals still apply despite all the hubbub about credit costs, scores, monopolies, hard pulls versus soft pulls, and… tri-merge versus bi-merge. I bring this up because it appears that the “new” scoring and bi-merge will be done at the same time, at the end of 2025. So, the industry has some to adjust and accommodate.

“Dear Stakeholders,

“Thank you for your continued engagement with FHFA’s Credit Score Initiative. As many of you likely saw, FHFA just announced a series of updates related to the implementation of the new credit score requirements for single-family loans delivered to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises). We are also pleased to announce the schedule for upcoming stakeholder forums to be hosted by FHFA, which is outlined below.

“Following valuable and thoughtful feedback gathered from the sessions held in late 2023, FHFA is aligning the implementation date for the bi-merge credit reporting option with the transition from the use of Classic FICO. This aligned transition is expected to occur in the fourth quarter of 2025. We expect this update will reduce cost and complexity for market participants.

“To better support the transition, the Enterprises are accelerating the publication of historical data on the VantageScore 4.0 model. This publication, originally targeted for the first quarter of 2025, is now expected early in the third quarter of 2024. FHFA and the Enterprises continue to work towards providing similar data to support the transition to the FICO 10T model.

“We would like to thank all those who participated in the stakeholder forums for sharing their perspectives on the sequencing of project milestones, as well as the expected uses of the historical data to support the new models. Your input helped inform the latest updates to the Credit Score Initiative.

“FHFA will be hosting the next series of virtual stakeholder forums in the coming weeks. The schedule is planned as follows: Bi-Merge Implementation Considerations (Tuesday, March 12, 3:00-4:00pm Eastern), Bi-Merge Implementation Considerations (cont’d) (Tuesday, March 26, 3:00-4:00pm Eastern), Transition Period Loan Delivery Considerations (Tuesday, April 9, 3:00-4:00pm Eastern), and Transition Period Loan Delivery Considerations (cont’d) (Tuesday, April 23, 3:00-4:00pm Eastern).

“As a reminder, these virtual stakeholder forums are open to the public, but they are not intended for media purposes. FHFA will provide agendas, materials, and links to access the sessions as they approach. Thank you again for your continued engagement. If you have further questions or thoughts, please contact us at [email protected].”

After 2023’s jarring price hikes, the credit bureaus and FICO are raising their credit reporting costs once again, passing this on to credit reporting agencies (CRAs). This latest price increase affects both hard and soft pull credit reports. In response, CRAs everywhere have updated their pricing options, allowing the customization of lender’s prequalification options to suit budgets.

And compliance departments noted that the FTC, which has authority to enforce the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA) against most types of non-depository financial services providers, issued a report in February describing its enforcement actions and related activity under ECOA during 2023: Annual Report on Its ECOA Enforcement and Policy Development Activity.

Capital Markets

The Fed has been preaching patience from markets when it comes to enacting rate cuts, a sentiment that was further bolstered yesterday after the central bank’s preferred price gauge rose in January at the fastest pace in almost a year (2.4 percent). Inflation rose 0.4 percent month-over-month compared to a downwardly revised 0.1 percent increase in December. The core rate increased 2.8 percent year-over-year. Personal Incomes rose 1.0 percent in January, which was also much higher than expected, driven primarily by growth in the annual cost of living increase in social security. Fed policymakers took the data in stride, repeating that easing can begin in the summer and there is room to be patient.

Yesterday also saw the release of a weaker-than-expected Chicago PMI for February and a disappointing Pending Home Sales report which came in down 4.9 percent for January. Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 24 increased to 215k, which is still a relatively low number for this series. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending February 17 increased by 45,000 to 1.905 million, which is the highest level for that series since November. It has become more challenging to find a new job right away, which indicates that the labor market is not running as tight as it once was. The four-week moving average for continuing claims of 1,879,750 is the highest since December 11, 2021

Today’s economic calendar contains no “first tier” scheduled market-moving news but has no fewer than seven Fed speakers scheduled. Go ahead and add in the final February S&P Global manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing PMI for February, January construction spending, and Michigan sentiment for February. (Unemployment data, normally released on the first Friday of the month, is next Friday.) After the 10-year yield rose 28 basis points in February, we begin March with the 10-year yielding 4.23 after closing yesterday at 4.27 percent, Agency MBS prices better about .125, and the 2-year at 4.59.

Jobs

Mark Pasternak appointed as the newest SecurityNational Mortgage Company VP to Spearhead Operational Excellence. In a significant move to bolster its leadership team, Security National Mortgage Company has announced the appointment of Mark Pasternak as Vice President of Mortgage Operations. Pasternak joins the company with over three decades of industry experience, including his most recent tenure serving as EVP of Operations at Academy Mortgage. His leadership background in both sales and operational management is sure to provide an operational edge for SecurityNational Mortgage. Andrew Quist, President of SecurityNational Mortgage Company, stated: “Mark is joining us with a wealth of experience and his innovative nature will be highly valuable to our operations team. Even in this challenging mortgage rate environment, SecurityNational is still dedicated to recruiting elite industry talent like Mark that align with our growth focused business objectives. We’re excited to see the impact Mark will have in our operations.” The addition of Mark Pasternak to the SecurityNational team underscores the company’s commitment to recruiting top talent to lead its strategic initiatives. With Pasternak at the helm of operations, SecurityNational is poised to enhance its operational capabilities and achieve new milestones in service and efficiency.

In the Northwest and California, Banner Bank is searching for Mortgage Loan Officers looking to create lasting Realtor and builder relationships at a bank focused on the market today. Banner has opportunities for lenders looking for local decision making with FHA, VA, USDA, state bond and true Portfolio lending opportunities along with servicing retained Fannie and Freddie loans to assist in client retention. Additional highlighted products cover CRA lending with private label no payment down payment assistance to help assist all borrowers with the right opportunity. Banner is the right fit for an established team, or the individual looking to grow their business and take the next step in their career. Please send resumes to Aaron Miller.

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

We haven’t talked enough about ISM Manufacturing this week because Thursday’s PCE data was the first report in more than 2 weeks that mattered.  Thus, the focus was on what came first as opposed to what has a track record of moving markets.  It didn’t help that ISM Manufacturing was separated from its usual top tier companions (all scheduled for next week).  Nonetheless, we now have a fresh reminder not to sleep on ISM Manufacturing!  The 47.8 vs 49.5 result has been enough for a decent rally to the best levels in more than 2 weeks.

Why the question mark?  This is only one day spent beyond the walls of our recent holding area.  It’s not over either.  The range breakout not only needs technical confirmation, but also fundamental confirmation from weaker econ data next week.  If ISM services were to tell a different story, markets would likely pay much more attention to that. 

On that note, how correlated are ISM services and manufacturing?  The question came up on MBS Live this morning and it led to the following charts.  In the bigger picture, the two are well correlated because both speak to general economic momentum. 

In the shorter term, the two are surprisingly divergent, however, thus suggesting that next week’s ISM Services data is anyone’s guess.

 

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

March mortgage rate forecast

Mortgage rates are expected to go down sometime in 2024, but the decline probably won’t start in March. Instead, mortgage rates are likely to remain about the same because the economy hasn’t cooled off enough yet to cause them to fall.

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Source: shelbynews.com