Bonds began the day in weaker territory but rallied after the 8:30am econ data. This wasn’t exclusively a function of Core PCE hitting its forecast, but also drew strength from the higher continued claims number. Just over an hour later, Chicago PMI came in noticeably weaker and added to the rally. Gains slowly evaporated throughout the day in a linear trend. While this left a microscopic improvement on the day it did nothing to push rates/yields out of their exceptionally narrow, prevailing trend.
Jobless Claims
215k vs 210k f’cast, 202k prev
Continued Claims
1905k vs 1874k f’cast, 1860k prev
Core PCE m/m
0.4 vs 0.4 f’cast, 0.2 prev
Core PCE y/y
2.8 vs 2.8 f’cast, 2.9 prev
Chicago PMI
44 vs 48 f’cast, 46 prev
08:54 AM
Moderately weaker overnight, but erasing losses after data. 10yr nearly unchanged at 4.266. MBS down only 1 tick (0.03).
09:52 AM
Additional gains after Chicago PMI. 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.246. MBS up 2 ticks (.06).
01:27 PM
Off the best levels, but still stronger. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.252.
03:07 PM
some weakness heading into 3pm close (month-end). Still barely positive with MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.259.
04:48 PM
Briefly weaker at 4pm, but recovering back in line with the levels from the previous update.
Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.
Mortgage rates could go below 6% in 2024. But some think rates won’t drop much this year, if at all.
Getty Images/iStockphoto
The US economy is in a tricky spot. To close out 2023, fourth quarter GDP measured at a robust 3.3% annual growth rate, but inflation remains above the Fed’s desired 2% target, so the central bank has yet to cut interest rates. Still, many expect that rate cuts will come this year as the economy and inflation cool down more. For the mortgage market, that could also mean that rates come down.
Already, 30-year mortgage rates have fallen from recent highs. While they reached approximately 8% in October 2023, they now average 6.63% as of the beginning of February 2024, according to Freddie Mac.
But what will happen the rest of the year? Below, we’ll look at three possible mortgage rate scenarios.
If you’re in the market to buy a home then start by exploring your mortgage rate options here now.
Will mortgage rates drop below 6% in 2024?
Here are three possible scenarios for mortgage rates this year, according to the experts we spoke to.
Mortgage rates will drop below 6%
Mortgage rates could continue to trend downward this year, especially once the Fed starts cutting the federal funds rate.
“Mortgage rates will go down in 2024. How much and when depends on the economy and inflation. I believe that we will see rates trending to 6% in the summer, perhaps not until late summer,” says Melissa Cohn, regional VP at William Raveis Mortgage. After that, “I believe that rates will drop below 6% and stay below 6% for the year.”
Some experts predict an even larger drop, though still not at pandemic-era levels.
“I believe they will fall to 4.25%,” says Dan Green, CEO at Homebuyer.com. “Inflation is solved, lenders are competitive, and the bond market is finding its health.”
See how low of a mortgage rate you could get now.
Mortgage rates will drop somewhat but not below 6%
While some people think that mortgage rates will fall further, not everyone is convinced that they’ll drop significantly from their current levels. As mentioned, GDP remains strong, and lower rates tend to coincide with a weakening economy, which might not occur.
Shannon Feick,co-owner and co-founder at ASAP Properties, LLC, says he’s “confident that the relatively strong economy will likely prevent rates from falling below 6% in 2024, but with inflation cooling, mortgage rates will fall slightly from their current levels.”
Still, it’s possible that the economy’s health and inflation rate get thrown off by unexpected events, like how geopolitical conflicts have caused oil price swings, which can ultimately influence interest rate decisions.
“I do believe that curveballs like geopolitical events or significant shifts in the job market could alter this forecast, but only by a small amount,” says Feick.
Mortgage rates will stay the same
Another scenario could be that rates end up staying essentially the same, with mid-6% interest rates persisting.
“I think rates will stay flat on average this year, meaning that they will stay in the mid-6s, which is where we dropped to at the end of the year, going into 2024,” says Sam Sharp, executive VP of mortgage lending at Guaranteed Rate.
It’s also possible that rates go higher, but Sharp thinks that the current levels seem to be working.
“I believe that the markets have tested their threshold. When rates capped over 8% the housing market saw a steep decline. As soon as rates dropped into the mid-6s we saw a quick change, and this looks to be a sweet spot in the current environment,” he says.
“Not only is this a level that buyers seem more comfortable with, but I feel this is a good baseline for some sellers, and their motivation is what we need to create a balanced housing market,” explains Sharp.
Learn more about today’s mortgage rates online here.
The bottom line
It’s hard to predict exactly where mortgage interest rates will go in 2024, as much depends on factors like the state of the economy and how the Fed responds to inflation. But if you can afford to buy a home now at current levels, you might be better off doing so for two main reasons.
One, it’s hard to say how long you’ll have to wait for rates to drop — if they do at all — and you might not want to put your home search on hold indefinitely. Two, a decrease in mortgage rates could increase competition among homebuyers, as those who have been waiting for rates to drop might jump in, thus complicating the process.
However, one advantage of waiting to buy a home could be that more sellers jump in, too. Some sellers have been reluctant to give up their homes and then buy a new one at high mortgage rates. But if rates do drop, or if sellers simply get more accustomed to current rates as the new normal, then that could increase inventory.
So, you’ll have to weigh these factors, along with looking at your finances and the local conditions in your desired area to see what makes the most sense for you. And while you probably don’t want to bank on it, mortgage refinancing could be an option down the road if rates drop further.
Start exploring your current mortgage rate options here.
Today’s most hotly anticipated data was undoubtedly PCE inflation for January. In fact, this is the report that became the subject of our focus and anticipation immediately following the last CPI on Feb 13. That said, it only deserved focus because it was the best stop-gap data option between CPI and the next NFP on March 8th. Today, it is proving its merit… maybe. It’s actually hard to assign it too much credit for leading a reversal of overnight weakness because a big jump in continued jobless claims (highest since a spike in November that looked like an outlier at the time) arguably deserves some credit. We even had a noticeable reaction to Chicago PMI later in the morning.
One reason for giving Jobless Claims closer consideration is that today’s PCE data ran 10-30 seconds late depending on traders’ preferred delivery platform. That allowed us to see the Claims data having an impact in a vacuum during that time, and a majority of the initial gains were already in by the time we saw PCE come through. The additional drop in yields on the Chicago PMI data is possible evidence that the market is hungry for economically downbeat data. It’s a bit more pronounced than we’re used to seeing for this report, and it would be a surprise to see as much selling if today’s number had beaten the forecast by as much as it missed.
Despite the release of economic data that sounds like it should matter to markets (mainly “GDP”), the bonds that drive interest rates had a remarkably calm day on Wednesday. This is the latest in a series of mostly remarkably calm days for just over two weeks now.
The timing makes sense. The most recent CPI report (the Consumer Price Index) was released just over two weeks ago and it send rates significantly higher. Indeed, yesterday’s average conventional 30yr fixed rate matched its highest level in roughly 3 months yesterday, thus making today’s microscopic improvement a rather hollow victory.
As for GDP, it’s no surprise to see markets look past that data. Not only is it too broad to deliver the most needed cues, it also happens to be quite stale. After all, today’s GDP release is still looking back to Oct-Dec, 2023. That will STILL be the case when it comes out next month. In other words, it’s the biggest, most stale report card on the US economy. The investors who are making the trades that move interest rates are infinitely more focused on things like the big jobs report out next Friday or CPI the following week.
If you’re in the market for a home, here are today’s mortgage rates compared to last week’s.
Loan type
Interest rate
A week ago
Change
30-year fixed rate
7.18%
7.10%
+0.08
15-year fixed rate
6.64%
6.51%
+0.13
30-year jumbo mortgage rate
7.11%
7.02%
+0.09
30-year mortgage refinance rate
7.19%
7.10%
+0.09
Average rates offered by lenders nationwide as of Feb. 29, 2024. We use rates collected by Bankrate to track daily mortgage rate trends.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
How to select a mortgage term and type
When picking a mortgage, consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The most common mortgage terms are 15 and 30 years, although 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages also exist. You’ll also need to choose between a fixed-rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set for the duration of the loan, and an adjustable-rate mortgage. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, the interest rate is only fixed for a certain amount of time (commonly five, seven or 10 years), after which the rate adjusts annually based on the market’s current interest rate. Fixed-rate mortgages offer more stability and are a better option if you plan to live in a home in the long term, but adjustable-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates upfront.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages
The 30-year fixed-mortgage rate average is 7.18%, which is an increase of 8 basis points from seven days ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) A 30-year fixed mortgage is the most common loan term. It will often have a higher interest rate than a 15-year mortgage, but you’ll have a lower monthly payment.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.64%, which is an increase of 13 basis points from seven days ago. Though you’ll have a bigger monthly payment than a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year loan usually comes with a lower interest rate, allowing you to pay less interest in the long run and pay off your mortgage sooner.
5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages
A 5/1 ARM has an average rate of 6.35%, a slide of 1 basis point compared to last week. You’ll typically get a lower introductory interest rate with a 5/1 ARM in the first five years of the mortgage. But you could pay more after that period, depending on how the rate adjusts annually. If you plan to sell or refinance your house within five years, an ARM could be a good option.
What to know about today’s mortgage rates
High inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes drove up mortgage rates over the last several years. Toward the end of last year, however, the Fed announced that interest rate cuts were on the table for 2024. That projection led to a significant drop in mortgage rates, pushing them into the 6% range. Since early February, however, mortgage rates have climbed back above 7% in response to strong economic data.
30-year fixed mortgage: 7.18%
15-year fixed mortgage: 6.64%
5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage: 6.35%
Where mortgage rates are headed in 2024
Experts say interest rate cuts from the Fed will allow mortgage rates to ease, though the first cut won’t likely come until May or June, depending on how quickly inflation decelerates.
“We are expecting mortgage rates to fall to around 6.5% by the end of this year, but there’s still a lot of volatility I think we might see,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “It’s possible that rates might go up before they go down again, so that’s why we’re still being conservative with rates being around 6.5%.”
Each month brings a new set of inflation and labor data that can change how investors and the market respond and what direction mortgage rates go, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. “Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates,” Kushi said.
While mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, most experts and market watchers predict rates will move toward 6% or lower by the end of 2024. Here’s a look at where some major housing authorities expect average mortgage rates to land.
What factors affect mortgage rates?
While it’s important to monitor mortgage rates if you’re shopping for a home, remember that no one has a crystal ball. It’s impossible to time the mortgage market, and rates will always have some level of volatility because so many factors are at play.
“Mortgage rates tend to follow long-date Treasury yields, a function of current inflation and economic growth as well as expectations about future economic conditions,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
Here are the factors that influence the average rates on home loans.
Federal Reserve monetary policy: The nation’s central bank doesn’t set interest rates, but when it adjusts the federal funds rate, mortgages tend to go in the same direction.
Inflation: Mortgage rates tend to increase during high inflation. Lenders usually set higher interest rates on loans to compensate for the loss of purchasing power.
The bond market: Mortgage lenders often use long-term bond yields, like the 10-Year Treasury, as a benchmark to set interest rates on home loans. When yields rise, mortgage rates typically increase.
Geopolitical events: World events, such as elections, pandemics or economic crises, can also affect home loan rates, particularly when global financial markets face uncertainty.
Other economic factors: The bond market, employment data, investor confidence and housing market trends, such as supply and demand, can also affect the direction of mortgage rates.
Calculate your monthly mortgage payment
Getting a mortgage should always depend on your financial situation and long-term goals. The most important thing is to make a budget and try to stay within your means. CNET’s mortgage calculator below can help homebuyers prepare for monthly mortgage payments.
How to find the best mortgage rates
Though mortgage rates and home prices are high, the housing market won’t be unaffordable forever. It’s always a good time to save for a down payment and improve your credit score to help you secure a competitive mortgage rate when the time is right.
Save for a bigger down payment: Though a 20% down payment isn’t required, a larger upfront payment means taking out a smaller mortgage, which will help you save in interest.
Boost your credit score: You can qualify for a conventional mortgage with a 620 credit score, but a higher score of at least 740 will get you better rates.
Pay off debt: Experts recommend a debt-to-income ratio of 36% or less to help you qualify for the best rates. Not carrying other debt will put you in a better position to handle your monthly payments.
Research loans and assistance: Government-sponsored loans have more flexible borrowing requirements than conventional loans. Some government-sponsored or private programs can also help with your down payment and closing costs.
Shop around for lenders: Researching and comparing multiple loan offers from different lenders can help you secure the lowest mortgage rate for your situation.
The numbers: Pending home sales fell in January as rising mortgage rates pushed buyers out of the housing market.
Pending home sales fell 4.9% in January from the previous month, according to the monthly index released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Pending home sales reflect transactions where the contract has been signed for an existing-home sale, but the sale has not yet closed. Economists view it as an indicator of the direction of existing-home sales in subsequent months.
The drop in pending home sales was the largest since August 2023, when they fell 5%.
The sales pace fell short of expectations on Wall Street. Economists were expecting pending home sales to increase by 1.5% in January.
Transactions were down 8.8% from last year.
Big picture: Mortgage rates began their ascent to 7% towards the end of January, when the market saw that the Federal Reserve would not be cutting interest rates in March.
Even slight increases in rates can affect how much some buyers can afford to buy a home. At 7%, the monthly payment on a $400,000 home would be roughly $2,700, and buyers would potentially need to earn $108,440 a year to afford that comfortably.
Looking ahead, applications for purchase mortgages are trending down, as mortgage rates remain over 7% at the end of February. That indicates that sales activity may be muted in the coming months.
What the Realtors said: “The job market is solid, and the country’s total wealth reached a record high due to stock market and home price gains,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR, said in a statement.
While “this combination of economic conditions is favorable for home buying,” he added, “consumers are showing extra sensitivity to changes in mortgage rates in the current cycle, and that’s impacting home sales.”
What they’re saying: “Pending home sales, or contract signings, measure the first formal step in the home sale transaction, namely, the point when a buyer and seller have agreed on the price and terms,” Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, said in a statement.
“Pending home sales tend to lead existing home sales by roughly one-to-two months and are a good indicator of market conditions,” she added. And “the recent uptick in rates could mean slower seasonally adjusted sales as the spring homebuying season kicks off.”
Pre-Qual, TPO, Lead Gen Tools; STRATMOR on Vendor Relationships; Disaster News; HECM, Ginnie, FHA News
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Pre-Qual, TPO, Lead Gen Tools; STRATMOR on Vendor Relationships; Disaster News; HECM, Ginnie, FHA News
By: Rob Chrisman
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 11:09 AM
At the TMBA’s Secondary Conference in Houston a topic is obviously interest rates and the economy… And the fact that the nation’s interest payment expense now exceeds our defense expense! It’s also a fact that Texas’ business climate is very friendly for companies. The #1 state in the nation for residential lending, California, not so much. Overheard here in the hallway: “California is a blue state wrapped up in red tape.” That said, permit process aside, California gets a lot of flak for its high cost of living, but that is for income tax rather than property tax, as exhibited in “Property Taxes by State in 2024” comparing home and vehicle taxes across the nation. Californians pay the 34th highest annual taxes on homes priced at state median value. New Jersey, Illinois, and Connecticut have the highest annual taxes on homes. Each year, the average American household spends $2,869 on real-estate property taxes plus another $448 for residents of the 26 states with vehicle property taxes. (Found here after 8:30AM ET, this week’s podcast is brought to you by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite’s three core products – nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics – unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. Interview with SoFi’s Liz Young on the need for Treasury auctions and how supply and demand at those auctions impacts consumer interest rates.)
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software
“If you’re heading to ICE Experience, there’s never been a better time to catch up with the Optimal Blue team. Our PPE clients are actively upgrading to the Encompass Partner Connect integration and enjoying new features and benefits. On average, loan officers experience a 60% reduction in the time it takes to request a lock and see it auto-confirmed within Encompass through this upgraded integration. This means users can continue with disclosures and other loan-processing activities faster, which shortens turnaround times and increases efficiencies. If you’re an existing Optimal Blue client and interested in hearing about the other benefits of upgrading, or if you’d like to further discuss your business strategy, consider scheduling a meeting with the Optimal Blue team at our private poolside cabana. We will also be set up at the Optimal Blue booth throughout the event and ready to chat at your leisure. See you in Vegas!”
Compliance Experts Report on 2024 Mortgage Servicing Outlook! Watch the 30-minute webinar that recently launched with ACES’ EVP of Compliance, Amanda Phillips and Reid Herlihy of Ballard Spahr as they discuss the most recent mortgage servicing news, CFPB Supervisory Highlights, and expectations and predictions for 2024 and beyond. Watch the recording.
Guaranteed Rate has chosen Evocalize to enhance the digital marketing capabilities of its mortgage loan officers. Evocalize, renowned for powering leading mortgage and real estate industry tech platforms, is partnering with Guaranteed Rate to revolutionize lead generation and referral partner engagement. Through Evocalize, loan officers can execute targeted digital marketing campaigns across various platforms including Google, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Gmail, and YouTube instantaneously. This collaboration empowers loan officers to leverage local data for lead generation amidst changing regulatory landscapes. Evocalize will leverage real-time data and machine learning algorithms to optimize ad management. Guaranteed Rate anticipates significant benefits from this partnership, including enhanced lead generation, reduced marketing costs, and streamlined compliance efforts, ultimately improving the overall customer experience. Learn more here.
“Welcome to the new AFR Wholesale® (AFR)! Change can be good. Our team has been relentlessly pursuing better execution. This exercise has led to great program enhancements, operational improvements and of course, better pricing. Non-Delegated and Wholesale clients have commented on our aggressive pricing across all programs. Notably our new expanded note rate adjusters in conventional and government. We’ve also revised pricing for our Down Payment Assistance Program going into purchase season. AFR is dedicated to offering not only competitive rates but also a customer-centric approach, ensuring that you and your borrowers have the tools and options needed for a beneficial experience. Delegated Correspondents have also seen sharper pricing and incredible turn times (under 48 hours). Ensure you’re leveraging all AFR benefits by reaching out to our Account Executives, 1-800-375-6071, or explore our enhancements through our Quick Pricer tool. Not a client? Partner with AFR today!”
When Al Gore invented the internet, he envisioned a world where borrowers and Realtors could stand in a home, pull out their phones, and update pre-approval letters on demand. Make him proud and check out QuickQual by LenderLogix.
STRATMOR on Lender-Vendor Communication
We in the industry know that there is often a massive disconnect between mortgage lenders and their technology partners, so why isn’t “business relationship therapist” a thing? In STRATMOR Group’s February Insights Report, Senior Advisor Sue Woodard takes on the role of “therapist” to help both lenders and vendors unpack the key areas of disconnect. If you need guidance in breaking down these communication barriers, contact STRATMOR and don’t miss “Step into Our Office: Couples Therapy for Mortgage Lenders and Tech Vendors” for suggestions for both parties and to learn how STRATMOR is already working with technology providers to hear, understand and better respond to the needs of the lending community.
Disaster News
Given that 20-25 percent of the nation’s mortgages come from California, exposed to earthquakes, fires, and flooding, seeing a disaster declared there is worth noting for lenders and servicers alike. FEMA announced that federal disaster assistance has been made available to the state of California to supplement recovery efforts in the areas affected by severe storms and flooding, January 21-23, 2024. The President’s action makes federal funding available to affected individuals in San Diego County.
“Assistance can include grants for temporary housing and home repairs, low-interest loans to cover uninsured property losses and other programs to help individuals and business owners recover from the effects of the disaster. Federal funding is also available on a cost-sharing basis for hazard mitigation measures statewide. Individuals and business owners who sustained losses in the designated areas can begin applying for assistance by registering online at www.DisasterAssistance.gov, by calling 1-800-621-3362 or by using the FEMA App.”
But up in Washington we have wildfires: FEMA DR-4759-WA.
On 2/19/2024, with DR-4758, Release Number HQ-24-024, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance has been made available to San Diego County California affected by severe storms and flooding from 1/21/2024 to 1/23/2024. See AmeriHome Mortgage Disaster Announcement 20240206-CL for inspection requirements.
On 2/15/2024, with DR-4759, Release Number HQ-25-025, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance has been made available to a county affected by wildfires from 8/18/2023 to 8/25/2023. See AmeriHome Mortgage Disaster Announcement 20240208-CL for inspection requirements.
FHA, VA, Ginnie Mae, HECM, and USDA Developments
Ginnie Mae’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio outstanding grew to $2.53 trillion in January, including $28.1 billion of total MBS issuance, leading to $10.8 billion of net growth. January’s new MBS issuance supports financing for more than 91,000 households, including more than 46,000 first-time homebuyers. Approximately 77.6 percent of the January MBS issuance reflects new mortgages that support home purchases, because refinance activity remained low due to higher interest rates.
The January issuance includes $27.4 billion of Ginnie Mae II MBS and more than $674 million of Ginnie Mae I MBS, including nearly $558 million in loans for multifamily housing. For the 2024 calendar year to date, Ginnie Mae supported the pooling and securitization of more than 46,000 first-time homebuyer loans. For more information on monthly MBS issuance, unpaid principal balance (UPB), real estate investment conduit (REMIC) monthly issuance, and global market analysis, visit Ginnie Mae Disclosure.
In USDA news, an Unnumbered Letter (UL) dated February 13, 2024, has been issued which increases the appraisal fee to $775 and the conditional commitment fee to $850 under the rural development direct programs. The fee increases are effective March 14, 2024. The increased fees reflect market research for origination appraisals in rural areas and incorporates the average cost of appraisals under the programs’ nationwide contract with the Appraisal Management Companies.
With the current market trends of rising interest rates, the Single-Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program (SFHGLP) Rural Development announced a Stand-Alone MRA ratio waiver; to remove the 55 percent and 31 percent limitations from the requirements in the regulation for the Stand-Alone MRA.
FHA published Frequently Asked Questions, FHA (FAQs), that address inquiries received from stakeholders regarding its final rule, Changes in Branch Office Registration Requirements published in the Federal Register on February 2, 2024. This regulation eliminated the current requirement for lenders and mortgagees to register branch offices where they originate FHA Title I or Title II loans. This new rule, which becomes effective on March 4, 20 is not applicable for those institutions whose fiscal year ended on December 31, 2023, and are required to recertify by March 31, 2024. Recertification fees for those lenders will be calculated based on the number of registered branches as of the last business day of their fiscal year-end certification period. Refer to the rule and accompanying FHA INFO 2024-01 dated February 2, 2024, for information on the rule.
Effectively immediately, AmeriHome is removing the existing $100,000 maximum cash-to-borrower overlay on VA Cash-Out Refinance transactions, to align with VA guidelines. For additional information, see Product Announcement 20240207-CL.
Big news for the “Empire State” of New York! Plaza Home Mortgage excitedly shared that borrowers can now utilize a reverse mortgage for purchasing a home. This is a great option for “buying up” or keeping key cash liquidity vs paying all cash. Plus, FHA now allows borrower concessions up to 6% of the Principal Limit. So, what does that mean for your borrower? When discussing the HECM product, these interested party contributions [or concessions] may include REALTORS®, builders, developers, lenders, and others with an interest in the transaction. Now, interested parties may contribute up to 6% of the sales price toward the borrower’s origination fees, closing costs, prepaid items, and more.
Weary about adding reverse mortgages into your business plan? Although there are lower LTVs caused by the higher rates, keep in mind that the acceleration of equity often offsets all of that. While your senior borrowers may get 47 percent instead of 57 percent LTV, their house may have appreciated $150K or more. Contact Plaza Home Mortgage for more information.
Pennymac Announcement 24-07 provides updates to Government LLPAs effective for all Best-Efforts Commitments taken on or after Friday, February 09, 2024.
The Single-Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program (SFHGLP) announced upcoming revisions to technical Handbook 1-3555, Chapter 12, Property and Appraisal Requirements. Changes are expected to be implemented on April 1, 2024. View USDA Rural Development Bulletin for more information.
Per Pennymac Announcement 24-13, Government LLPAs were updated, effective for all Best-Efforts Commitments taken on or after Friday, February 23, 2024, as follows: Improve values on the ‘Government FICO Price Adjustments’ LLPA Grid.
Capital Markets
There are competing narratives emerging around the strength of the U.S. economy. Weaker consumer spending of late calls into question whether the economy can avoid a recession, consumer confidence has fallen and remains shaky, economic activity pulled back in January as storms and cold weather disrupted day-to-day activity, and markets received a disappointing Durable Orders report yesterday. However, employment has remained resilient, homebuilder confidence has improved, and Treasury auctions this week have not indicated any sort of flight to quality. On balance, the data suggests that the economy should pick up as the weather improves.
Home prices continue to hold steady as demand greatly exceeds supply. The FHFA Housing Price Index rose 0.1 percent month-over-month in December after increasing a revised 0.4 percent in November, while the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index was up 6.1 percent in December after being up 5.4 percent in November. However, local markets are seeing some price easing. Supply and demand may be a greater determinant: Despite high rates, home prices rose 5.1 percent in January, year over year, and while still painfully low, inventory is up 3.1 percent year over year and new listings rose year over year for the fourth straight month.
Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications from MBA decreasing 5.6 percent from one week earlier. Later today brings the second look at Q4 GDP and January advanced indicators: the goods trade deficit, retail inventories, and wholesale inventories. Three Fed speakers are currently scheduled: Atlanta President Bostic, Boston President Collins, and New York President Williams. We begin the day (an early travel day for me) with Agency MBS prices, the 10-year yielding 4.28 after closing yesterday at 4.32 percent, and the 2-year at 4.67.
Jobs and Transitions
Looking to expand in CA or NV? Licensing in both states is now taking nearly a year. Opportunity for immediate licensing in either or both states. New established small Mini-Corr/Broker shop located in Northern NV for sale. The operation was established by an industry veteran with two immediate family members. Some circumstances with the family have changed and the principal believes it would be better to continue forward becoming a part of a larger entity. The company is licensed in NV, CO, TX, FL, and CA; banking license should be completed within 6 – 8 weeks. If interested, please contact Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt to forward your note to the owner.
Movement is providing its loan officers, and the agents they work with, a unique way to highlight their impact. Powered by the company’s new proprietary sales and marketing tool MORE, every Movement LO and the agents they closed loans with in 2023 recently received a personalized “Highlight Reel,” featuring an email, web page, and social media content showcasing the work they did together last year and how that work impacted their respective communities. Movement has also released its annual Impact Report, which also looks back on the previous 12 months. Check out all the ways Movement helps its loan officers stand out with unique storytelling, content, technology, and yes, MORE, at MovementLO.com.
New American Funding is pleased to announce the addition of industry leader Mosi Gatling as SVP Strategic Growth and Expansion. Gatling is renowned for her expertise in serving previously underserved communities and her commitment to increasing Black homeownership in the U.S. and will help to reshape the industry’s approach towards minority communities and effect positive change across the mortgage industry.
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Average mortgage rates edged higher yesterday. Although the change was negligible, it was enough to return them to their recent high, first reached last Thursday. However, they’re still way lower than the near-8% levels seen as recently as last October.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might barely move. However, these early mini-trends often switch direction or speed as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.36%
7.37%
+0.01
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.76%
6.79%
Unchanged
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.06%
7.09%
Unchanged
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.65%
6.68%
-0.01
30-year fixed FHA
6.42%
7.11%
+0.03
30-year fixed VA
6.71%
6.83%
-0.01
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.18%
7.32%
-0.01
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Many investors now expect the Federal Reserve to implement its first cut in general interest rates in June. And to make only three modest cuts during 2024.
That’s very different from their expectations at the start of this year. Then, they thought the first cut would be in March followed by five more before Dec. 31.
It’s this shift in expectations, from the optimistic to the realistic, that largely explains why mortgage rates have been moving higher in recent weeks. And it’s my top reason for now thinking that mortgage rates probably won’t begin to trend consistently lower until well into the second (April-June) quarter.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady 4.30%. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were falling this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices climbed to $79.34 from $78.19 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices inched down to $2,042 from $2,044 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — increased to 79 from 76 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold steady or close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
This morning brought the second reading (of three) of gross domestic product (GDP) during the fourth quarter of last year. And it will likely hardly affect mortgage rates.
Today’s figure showed growth that quarter at 3.2%. Markets had been expecting it to be unchanged from its first reading at 3.3%. And they’d already priced that figure into mortgage rates.
Ten-year Treasury notes edged lower on the news. But mortgage rates didn’t immediately follow, and the difference between the actual figure and market expectations may not be enough to change them.
Tomorrow
We’re due January’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index tomorrow. This is the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. So it certainly has the potential to move markets and mortgage rates, not least because it could influence decisions about the timing and scope of the Fed’s future cuts in general interest rates.
Tomorrow brings four key figures: two for the all-items PCE price index and two for the “core” PCE price index. The core figure is the all-items one after volatile food and energy prices have been stripped out, something that supposedly reveals underlying inflation. The Fed focuses on core figures.
There are two figures for each of these indexes. The first shows how prices moved in the month of January. And the second is the year-over-year (YOY) number, which shows how the same prices moved between Feb. 1, 2023 and Jan. 31, 2024.
Tomorrow’s inflation and other data
Here are what markets are expecting tomorrow (with December’s actual figures in brackets):
January all-items PCE price index — 0.3% (0.2 % in December)
January core PCE price index —0.4% (0.2% in December)
YOY all-items PCE price index — 2.4% (2.6 % in December)
YOY core PCE price index —2.8% (2.8% in December)
You can see that markets are expecting a small increase in most of these measures of inflation. And, because they’re expecting them, they’ll have already priced those into mortgage rates. So, if the figures come in as forecast, mortgage rates might barely move.
However, higher-than-expected figures could push those rates upward. Conversely, lower-than-expected ones could drag them downward.
Other economic reports due tomorrow rarely move mortgage rates far or for long, especially when they’re overshadowed by a major report like the PCE price index.
Ten senior Fed officials have speaking engagements tomorrow and on Friday, all after tomorrow’s report. And those could change mortgage rates if enough of them say things that cheer up or depress investors. But we can only wait to hear their remarks.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Feb. 22 report put that same weekly average at 6.90% up from the previous week’s 6.77%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 12 and the MBA’s on Feb. 20.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
The bond market may be data dependent (it totally is!), but not just any data will do. You’d be forgiven for thinking that things like “GDP” and “Core PCE Prices” are important enough for the bond market to react. This is especially confusing due to the fact that one of today’s line items sounds a lot like “Core PCE,” which is indeed one of the Fed’s favorite benchmarks for its inflation target. We’ll get the more relevant Core PCE tomorrow (even then, it’s not as important as CPI). Today’s PCE data is part of the GDP data which, itself, is so damn old that it doesn’t even matter anymore (October-December of 2023). Since we already have almost all the relevant data for January, that’s ancient history and it’s no surprise that markets don’t care.
The “not econ data” pop that followed about 20-30 minutes later was linked to a glut of new corporate bond issuance.