5 Places Where Home Prices Will Plunge up to 18% This Year, Experts Say

After years of soaring, home prices have begun to fall in many markets across the U.S. In most cases, the declines have been modest thus far.

However, in a handful of places, home values could be in for a dramatic plunge, according to a recent study from the University of California, San Diego, Rady School of Management.

Nationwide, values likely will drift lower by about 5% throughout the course of the year. But a few places will see home prices plummet by as much as 18%.

The projections are based on online search activity, and the study authors contend that their model’s predictions have had an accuracy rate of up to 70% in the past.

Following are the metropolitan areas projected to see the worst home price declines in 2023.

5. Tucson, Arizona

By the end of the year, housing prices in this metro are projected to fall: 11%

If values fall in Tucson, older folks might want to try to grab a bargain in the Arizona city. Tucson is one of the “15 Best-Paying Cities for Working Seniors in 2023.”

4. San Diego

By the end of the year, housing prices in this metro are projected to fall: 12%

San Diego is one of the “15 Cities With the Biggest Increase in Housing Inventory.” When there are more houses for sale, buyers can be a bit choosier, and sellers may have to make concessions.

2. Las Vegas (tie)

By the end of the year, housing prices in this metro are projected to fall: 13%

Prices already are slipping in the gambling mecca known as Sin City, which is one of the “8 Places Seeing Their Worst Home Price Declines in Nearly a Decade.”

2. Stockton, California (tie)

By the end of the year, housing prices in this metro are projected to fall: 13%

Like Las Vegas, Stockton recently has seen home prices go into a significant slide. And that trend might continue for a while.

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1. Phoenix

By the end of the year, housing prices in this metro are projected to fall: 18%

Tough times might be on the way in the desert, with home values projected to plunge more deeply in the Arizona capital than anywhere else.

Perhaps sellers in Phoenix already sense how much things have changed, as the city is one of the “8 Markets Where Most Sellers Are Wooing Homebuyers With Perks.”