Well, folks, this spring marks a major milestone in the housing market: Annual home list prices have gone negative for the first time in years. In other words, they are actually dropping nationally.
Looking at the country as a whole, sellers have priced their homes this May below where homes were priced just one year ago. That hasn’t happened in recent memory, especially after the past few years of unprecedented price hikes. But as mortgage interest rates shot up, buyers have been unable to afford the higher monthly housing payments.
Something had to give. And while today’s price dips are slight, there are no indications that overall prices will begin rising anytime soon.
So where are home prices falling the most? The data team at Realtor.com® found out. These are mostly places where prices shot up the most during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Western and Southern swaths of the country. In most of these places, there has been a lot of new construction helping to ease the housing shortage and taking the pressure off of prices to remain quite so high.
“Those markets that got the most juiced during the pandemic—where the prices really took off—are the markets where they’re now suffering the biggest declines because affordability has been the hardest there,” says Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist.
“The market is trying to adjust to the surge in mortgage rates and the collapse in affordability,” says Zandi. With mortgage rates hovering around 7%, he believes the price declines will continue in the near future.
“I’d be surprised if we don’t have this same conversation a year from now and prices aren’t another 3% or 4% lower than where they are today,” he adds.
For example, look at Boise, ID, No. 1 on our list, or Austin, TX, which came in at No. 2. Both were practically synonymous with the housing market’s pandemic price pump.
People who previously had to spend their nine-to-five in a big-city office building were turned into remote workers with more flexibility in where they could live. That led many people to leave more expensive cities like San Francisco and Seattle for smaller cities where they could get more space for their money.
The big caveat here is that there are still real estate markets around the country where prices are rising steadily. These are typically more affordable Midwestern markets that didn’t see the large upswings that other markets experienced during the pandemic.
To figure out where prices are falling the most, we looked at the median price per square foot in the 100 largest metropolitan areas. Then we compared median prices in May 2023 with May 2022.
We used price per square foot as the most reliable metric to track home price movement. This means in a few instances, overall home prices in a metro might be rising while the price per square foot is falling. Price per square foot is generally considered a better indicator of prices because it accounts for changes in the mix of homes for sale. For example, right now many larger, more expensive homes are sitting on the market without attracting buyers. Since those homes aren’t moving, it’s bringing up the overall price for these metros. But the price per square foot compares apples to apples and shows that in some of these markets, it’s actually cheaper to purchase a home now than a year earlier.
We looked at only one metro per state to ensure geographical diversity. Metros include the main city and surrounding towns, suburbs, and smaller urban areas.
Here’s where home prices are down the most.
Median listing price: $609,875
Median listing price per square foot: $282
Change in year-over-year price per square foot: -7.8%
Boise has been one of the poster children for the run-up in home prices during the pandemic. The area saw a massive influx of residents and soaring demand over the past few years, especially from Californians. And it’s not hard to see why.
The city checks many of the standard quality-of-life boxes that people are seeking: Homes are larger than the national average, and there’s plenty of natural beauty and outdoor recreation.
Homes in the city, surrounded by mountains, used to be a bargain. Then the pandemic hit, and from March 2020 to May 2022, prices rose 63%. Now prices are coming back down to earth.
“It’s the entry-level homes where we’re losing value,” says Boise real estate agent Rob Inman, with Boise’s Best Real Estate Keller Williams, “those homes that people got into for $400,000 to $500,000.”
That reality is rough for buyers who bought at the peak, Inman says, especially first-time buyers. The one consolation, he says, is the low interest rate they probably have on the mortgage.
But for buyers still looking for a home on the more affordable end of the spectrum in Boise, there’s a lot more to choose from now.
“Now, you can actually find stuff between $350,000 and $425,000, right in that entry-level price point,” he says. “There’s even new construction.”
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Median listing price: $583,751
Median listing price per square foot: $276
Change in year-over-year price per square foot: -7.7%
When it comes to pandemic hot spots, you can’t mention Boise without bringing up Austin, too. This cultural hub and capital of the Lone Star State has attracted hordes of tech companies and homebuyers leading to a surge in prices.
During the pandemic, the price per square foot for a home in the Austin metro rose around 75% from February 2020 to May 2022. The median home list price, not standardized for size, went from about $364,000 to almost $630,000. Pandemic price growth in Austin outpaced all others on the list.
Higher mortgage rates have cooled off buyers’ ability to purchase at the same price point. Right now, a relatively new, one-bedroom condo in East Austin is being listed for $420,000, with a recent $5,000 price reduction.
Median listing price: $366,075
Median listing price per square foot: $225
Change in year-over-year price per square foot: -7.3%
Myrtle Beach, nestled in the center of South Carolina’s “Grand Strand” shoreline, is a popular and affordable summer destination. The city, named after the abundant wax myrtle tree in the area, was recently named one of the nation’s most affordable golf towns by Realtor.com.
With its beaches, boardwalk and amusement parks, and plenty of golf courses, it’s another spot where prices rose over the past few years and are now coming down.
Some of that is due to the abundance of new construction in the area. With so many homes to choose from, buyers aren’t under as much pressure to bid them up.
Homes in Myrtle Beach are relatively small, so if buyers aren’t looking for a colossal home, the actual median price on homes there is 15% to 20% less than the national median. This remodeled three-bedroom, two-bathroom house is on the market for $284,900 after a $15,000 price cut.
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Median listing price: $529,450
Median listing price per square foot: $274
Change in year-over-year price per square foot: -5.6%
During the COVID-19 pandemic, home prices in Phoenix got as hot as a sweltering Sonoran summer, and just as the monsoons mark the end of the season, raised interest rates have come like a cold downpour on the market. After more than 50% pandemic-era appreciation here, the median price per square foot is down more than 5%.
But the housing boom in Phoenix—as well as the subsequent correction—is nothing new for the Valley of the Sun. Phoenix was one of the markets with the biggest swing up and down during the late 2000s housing bubble and crash.
Part of the reason why is that Phoenix has the capacity for so much growth. Without a real winter to speak of, home construction can go on year-round. And the only thing surrounding Phoenix is more land, so developers can continue to build outward.
“Developers can keep sprawling,” says local real estate agent Angela MacDonald. “Without the new homes, we wouldn’t be able to keep up with the demand for people moving here.”
Even with the price decline, sellers still have a bit of an edge in the market. There are still many buyers and not as many homes to go around.
Median listing price: $549,900
Median listing price per square foot: $305
Change in year-over-year price per square foot: -4.7%
Florida was another red-hot real estate market during the pandemic. As more folks could work remotely, many migrated to the Sunshine State with its low taxes, reasonable cost of living, and year-round warm temperatures.
Part of the reason Sarasota, about an hour south of Tampa on the southwestern coast of Florida, made our list is because it’s also one of the places in the U.S. where the number of homes for sale has risen the most.
Sarasota homes are also spending longer on the market, with the median listing on the market for nearly eight weeks. Homes were selling in about half of that time a year ago.
This midcentury three-bedroom home near downtown Sarasota has undergone a price reduction bringing it down to $499,000.
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Median listing price: $635,000
Median listing price per square foot: $247
Change in year-over-year price per square foot: -4.0%
Salt Lake City is another area that’s grown in popularity over the past few years and attracted more tech companies and workers. That led prices to rise—until recently.
“Buyers are holding back a little when it comes to waiving contingencies or inspections,” says Lory Hendry, a real estate agent at Windermere Real Estate in Salt Lake City, ”
That’s in contrast to the frenzy of the pandemic, when fast sales were often sealed without those protections.
Salt Lake City has the biggest homes of any metro on our list. So buyers looking for more home for their money might want to give the city a hard look. Surprisingly, it’s the higher end of the market, the larger, more luxurious homes, where high demand is still leading to quick sales and competition among buyers.
“Anything in that $1 million to $2 million price point is going pretty quickly,” says Hendry.
For people looking for a bit more of a bargain, the Ogden metro, just north of Salt Lake City, is a little less expensive and was recently featured on our list of places where the number of homes for sale is growing the most right now. The number of listings in the Ogden area has roughly tripled over the past year.
Median listing price: $238,250
Median listing price per square foot: $152
Change in year-over-year price per square foot: -3.9%
Venturing outside of the West and South, the “Steel City” is the only Northeastern spot on our list.
Pittsburgh stands out on our list as a place with some of the smaller homes, with a median home size around 1,600 square feet. Combined with a price per square foot that’s about one-third less expensive than the national median, this means the price of a Pittsburgh home is quite a bit lower than in most other places.
This anchor of the Steel Belt didn’t see the same kind of pandemic-era price appreciation as others on the list. However, the overall housing slowdown seems to have pulled down prices anyway.
Buyers looking in the area can find a three-bedroom home in the South Side Flats neighborhood for $285,000. It recently underwent a $10,000 price reduction.
(Kruck20/iStock)
Median listing price: $345,899
Median listing price per square foot: $148
Change in year-over-year price per square foot: -3.6%
For the previous few metros on our list, there’s a quirk to how home price data is affected by the mix of homes for sale. The anomaly is the most pronounced in the Winston-Salem metro. While the median list price per square foot has dropped, overall prices in the metro are rising.
This is due to shifting buyer preference. As mortgage rates rose and buyer budgets shrunk, many buyers shied away from larger, more expensive homes. That left these properties on the market as the cheaper, smaller homes were more quickly scooped up. The bigger homes have been pulling up overall prices for the metro even though local real estate costs less than it did a year ago.
If you were to compare the median home list price in Winston-Salem with Pittsburgh, you’d see that the Winston-Salem price is about $100,000 more. But the median home listing in Winston-Salem is more than 500 square feet larger. So buyers get more space for their money.
A nearly 100-year-old, three-bedroom home about 10 minutes south of downtown Winston-Salem is listed now for $220,000, after a $9,000 price reduction.
Median listing price: $662,875
Median listing price per square foot: $340
Change in year-over-year price per square foot: -3.4%
Sacramento, California’s capital city, may be the most expensive of any on our list, with homes priced around 50% higher than the national average. But for California, Sacramento is cheap! The state’s median list price per square foot is more than 30% higher.
The city became a popular alternative to the pricier San Francisco Bay Area during the pandemic as buyers sought out more space for less money. But as companies have been calling workers back to their offices, the area isn’t as hot as it was during the pandemic. There has also been plenty of new construction in the area.
A two-bedroom townhome near downtown Sacramento can be picked up for a little under $500,000 right now.
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Median listing price: $376,000
Median listing price per square foot: $205
Change in year-over-year price per square foot: -1.1%
The real estate market in the “Windy City” is really a tale of two cities, says Compass real estate agent Amy Duong Kim.
Chicago’s dense downtown should be thought of as one market, she says. The suburbs on the periphery, where about two-thirds of the metro residents live, should be thought of as another.
“In River North and Gold Coast and the other downtown neighborhoods, they were hit the hardest during COVID,” Duong Kim says. “Unfortunately, they haven’t bounced back yet.”
The listing data backs up her point about the two different markets of Chicago. Where the larger metro area is showing a 1.1% decline in price per square foot, the city of Chicago at the center of the metro is showing the list price per square foot is down just a little more than 4%.
This two-bedroom, one-bathroom condo in downtown Chicago is on the market for $299,000.
Source: realtor.com