Needle Threaded. Data Dependence Continues
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 4:38 PM
Needle Threaded. Data Dependence Continues
In today’s post-rate-hike press conference, Fed Chair Powell managed to hit on all of his consistent talking points (data dependent, job not done on inflation, future rate hikes not predetermined) AND introduce a few newer thoughts (policy now considered “restrictive,” 2% inflation not foreseen until 2025 or so) all without leaving the market with a clear cue to buy or sell. Granted, there was some buying, but not much, and arguably only to defuse the defensive trades seen over the past 2 days. This is a prime example of threading the needle. He acknowledged developments, respected the static talking points, and left all the relevant decision making for the broader committee in the future (and even then, only with the benefit of additional economic data between now and the next meeting).
09:45 AM
essentially flat overnight. gains at the 8:20am CME open and now bouncing a bit. 10yr down 0.7bps at 3.883. MBS up 1 tick (0.03).
01:52 PM
All quiet ahead of Fed. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up .4bps at 3.894
02:04 PM
Slightly stronger after Fed. 10yr down 0.7bps at 3.883. MBS up 1 tick (0.03)
03:05 PM
Additional gains during press conference. 10yr down 3.3bps at 3.857. MBS up a quarter point
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Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com