Gains Evaporate After Weaker Auction; Sideways Volatility Expected Ahead of CPI

Gains Evaporate After Weaker Auction; Sideways Volatility Expected Ahead of CPI

CPI, NFP, CPI, Fed Day, NFP, CPI…  Maybe throw in some ISM data or the European Central Bank here and there and you’d have a perfectly condensed script for the story of mortgage rate movement over the past few months (ok, maybe for the past year).  This week has been an epilogue to last week’s NFP (jobs report) with some Fed Day addendums and follow-up courtesy of Powell and several other Fed speakers.  Treasury auctions added a bit of volatility with yesterday’s 10yr auction helping and today’s 30yr bond auction undoing all of those gains and then some.  Yields continue failing to break back into the sub 3.62% trading range and we expect more of this frustrating sideways volatility ahead of the next big flashpoint: Tuesday’s CPI data.  It’s hard to imagine anything too consequential happening before then when it comes to things that can be scheduled or predicted.