The Federal Reserve directly controls the shortest term lending rates. Mortgage rates are dictated by longer-term bonds in the open market, but traders of those bonds are frequently influenced by the outlook for Fed rate hikes/cuts.
The Fed officially hikes/cuts rates at 8 regularly scheduled meetings each year. The most recent hike took place on February 1st. It had nothing to do with the spike in mortgage rates that has take place since then.
In fact, the spike in mortgage rates was driven by economic data beginning on February 3rd. This had an impact on the market’s expectations for future Fed rate hikes.
In addition to the 8 regularly scheduled meetings, the Fed also releases the “minutes” from each of those meetings 3 weeks after they happen. Today brought the minutes from the Feb 1st meeting (the one that didn’t really matter because markets already knew what was going to happen).
Given that all the recent rate drama happened AFTER the Fed meeting in question, there wasn’t much to glean from these meeting minutes. As such, it’s no surprise to see today’s rates very much in line with yesterday’s. The only downside is that yesterday’s rates were the highest in several months with the average lender quoting 6.87% on a conventional 30yr fixed.
In the bigger picture, bond traders (the people who determine mortgage rates, among other things) are going to be cautious about pushing rates lower in any exciting way until new economic data makes a clearer case that inflation is subsiding and that the Fed’s restrictive policies are putting a dent in the economy.
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com