In the first week of 2024, mortgage rates continued to stick around the mid 6% mark.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.62% as of Jan. 4, a slight increase from the 6.61% rate recorded on Dec. 28, according to Freddie Mac‘s Primary Mortgage Market Survey released on Thursday. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.89% this week, down from 5.93% the prior week. HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed Optimal Blue’s average 30-year fixed rate on conventional loans at 6.68% on Thursday, up from 6.56% recorded at the same time last week.
“Between late October and mid-December, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage plummeted more than a percentage point,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said in a statement. “However, since then rates have moved sideways as the market digests incoming economic data.”
Given the expectation of rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, Khater expects mortgage rates to continue drifting downward.
“While lower mortgage rates are welcome news, potential homebuyers are still dealing with the dual challenges of low inventory and high home prices that continue to rise,” he added.
One year ago this week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.48%, while the 15-year rate stood at 5.73%.
Lower rates attract homebuyers back to the market but difficulties persist
According to a Realtor.com survey, 11% of surveyed prospective homebuyers said that they would be able to buy a home if rates went below the 7% threshold. Another 12% of surveyed homebuyers said that rates would need to dip below 6% for them to be able to buy a home. Meanwhile, more than a quarter (28%) said rates would need to dip below 4% to bring them into the market.
Currently, the typical outstanding mortgage rate is still under 4%. This discrepancy is not creating any incentive for sellers to sell their homes in the current rate environment, according to Realtor.com Economic Research Analyst Hannah Jones.
However, the cost of buying a home did come down in December, sending an encouraging signal to the market. As per a Redfin study, the median U.S. mortgage payment was $2,361 during the four weeks ending December 31, down $372 (-14%) from October.
According to Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant, the lack of inventory remains the main issue, keeping home prices elevated.
“Young buyers are having to delay buying a home as it takes them longer to save for a down payment and they often have to make offers on multiple homes before they are successful,” Sturtevant said. “Many first-time homebuyers have been priced out of the market altogether.”
Sturtevant expects the lack of inventory to remain a challenge this year even as mortgage rates fall.
While average mortgage rates increased by a single basis point this week, they should move lower going forward in 2024 as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve reverses course, Freddie Mac said.
The Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.62%, compared with 6.61% one week prior and 6.48% one year ago. It is the first increase in 10 weeks.
The 15-year FRM moved down 4 basis points to 5.89%, compared with 5.93% the prior week and 5.73% for the same period in 2023.
“Between late October and mid-December, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage plummeted more than a percentage point,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a press release. “However, since then rates have moved sideways as the market digests incoming economic data.”
Zillow’s rate tracker has the 30-year FRM at 6.26% on Thursday morning, up 1 basis point from the prior day but down 3 basis points from the previous week’s average.
“The latest economic data is stronger than expected, meaning fewer policy rate cuts than previously thought could be in the cards for 2024,” said Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans in a Wednesday evening statement.
Divounguy pointed to a couple of trends that might not be beneficial to rate movements. The tight labor market is likely to be a boon for housing, but it could also put less downward pressure on bond yields. The U.S. Treasury is expected to borrow $816 billion in the first quarter, likely bringing upward tension on those yields.
“While the last FOMC meeting sent rates falling at the end of 2023, market participants and the Fed will be looking for more disinflation in the new year,” Divounguy said. “Otherwise, Treasury yields could surge back up, pulling mortgage rates up with them.”
The benchmark 10-year Treasury, which had gotten back down to 3.79% on Dec. 27, was close to the 4% mark as of noon on Thursday morning.
“Given the expectation of rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, as well as receding inflationary pressures, we expect mortgage rates will continue to drift downward as the year unfolds,” Freddie Mac’s Khater said. “While lower mortgage rates are welcome news, potential homebuyers are still dealing with the dual challenges of low inventory and high home prices that continue to rise.”
But signs of change are emerging. December’s lower mortgage rates led to a 5% year-over-year increase in net new listings, real estate brokerage HouseCanary said.
“With that said, any market turns are likely to be slow,” said HouseCanary CEO Jeremy Sicklick in a press release. “The mortgage rate lock-in effect is going to keep many would-be sellers who secured pre-pandemic mortgage rates of sub 5% little incentive to move, meaning low inventory will be a continuing trend.”
Care N’ Care Medicare Advantage plans are available in Texas only, and the provider’s star ratings from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) are below average. Member experience ratings, however, are above the average for major providers.
Here’s what you should know about Care N’ Care Medicare Advantage.
Care N’ Care Medicare Advantage pros and cons
Care N’ Care’s offerings have advantages and disadvantages.
Pros
High member experience ratings: Member experience ratings on metrics like care coordination and customer service are above the average for major providers.
Lower out-of-pocket max: Care N’ Care Medicare Advantage plans’ average out-of-pocket maximum is just under $3,600, which is lower than the average for major providers.
Cons
Below-average star ratings: Care N’ Care Medicare Advantage plans’ star ratings from CMS are below the industry average.
Limited availability: Care N’ Care offers Medicare Advantage plans in Texas only.
No SNPs: Care N’ Care doesn’t offer any Medicare Advantage special needs plans.
Care N’ Care Medicare star ratings
Average star rating, weighted by enrollment: 3.39
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services maintains star ratings for Medicare Advantage plans on a 5-point scale, ranking plans from best (5 stars) to worst (1 star). The agency bases these ratings on plans’ quality of care and measurements of customer satisfaction, and ratings may change from year to year.
Based on the most recent year of data and weighted by enrollment, Care N’ Care’s 2024 Medicare Advantage plans get an average rating of 3.39 stars
.
For comparison, the average star rating for plans from all providers is 4.04
.
Still deciding on the right carrier? Compare Medicare Advantage plans
What does Care N’ Care Medicare Advantage cost?
Costs for Medicare Advantage plans depend on your plan, your geographic location and your health needs.
Premiums
One of the costs to consider is the plan’s premium. In 2024, about 6 in 10 Care N’ Care Medicare Advantage plans that aren’t special needs plans (SNPs) have a $0 premium
.
Even as a Medicare Advantage user, you’ll still be responsible for paying your Medicare Part B premium, which is $174.70 per month in 2024
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Costs. Accessed Dec 19, 2023.
, although some plans cover part or all of this cost. (Most people pay this standard amount, but if your income is above a certain threshold, you’ll pay more.)
Copays, coinsurance and deductibles
Requirements for copays, coinsurance and deductibles vary depending on your plan, location and the services you use. Other out-of-pocket costs to consider include:
Whether the plan covers any part of your monthly Medicare Part B premium.
The plan’s yearly deductibles and any other deductibles, such as a drug deductible.
Copayments and/or coinsurance for each visit or service. For instance, there may be a $10 copay for seeing your primary doctor and a $45 copay for seeing a specialist.
The plan’s in-network and out-of-network out-of-pocket maximums.
Whether your medical providers are in-network or out-of-network, or how often you may go out of network for care.
Whether you require extra benefits, and if the plan charges for them.
To get a sense of costs, use Medicare’s plan-finding tool to compare information among available plans in your area. You can select by insurance carrier to see only Care N’ Care plans or compare across carriers. You can also shop directly from Care N’ Care’s website by entering your ZIP code.
Available Medicare Advantage plans
There are a few kinds of Care N’ Care Medicare Advantage plans, and they vary in terms of structure, costs and benefits. Care N’ Care offers Medicare Advantage prescription drug plans (MAPDs) as well as Medicare Advantage plans without drug coverage.
Plan offerings include the following types:
A health maintenance organization (HMO) generally requires that you use a specific network of doctors and hospitals. You may need a referral from your primary doctor in order to see a specialist, and out-of-network benefits are usually very limited.
Preferred provider organization (PPO) plans provide the most freedom, allowing you to see any provider that accepts the insurance. You may not need to choose a primary doctor, and you don’t need referrals to see specialists. You can seek out-of-network care, although it may cost more than seeing an in-network doctor.
Care N’ Care Medicare Advantage service area
Care N’ Care offers Medicare Advantage plans in Texas only and covers just over 10,000 members
.
Compare Medicare Advantage providers
Get more information below about some of the major Medicare Advantage providers. These insurers offer plans in most states. The plans you can choose from will depend on your ZIP code and county.
Find the right Medicare Advantage plan
What are the plan’s costs? Do you understand what the plan’s premium, deductibles, copays and/or coinsurance will be? Can you afford them?
Is your doctor in-network? If you have a preferred medical provider or providers, make sure they participate in the plan’s network.
Are your prescriptions covered? If you’re on medication, it’s crucial to understand how the plan covers it. What tier are your prescription drugs on, and are there any coverage rules that apply to them?
Is there dental coverage? Does the plan offer routine coverage for vision, dental and hearing needs?
Are there extras? Does the plan offer any extra benefits, such as fitness memberships, transportation benefits or meal delivery?
If you have additional questions about Medicare, visit Medicare.gov or call 800-MEDICARE (800-633-4227, TTY 877-486-2048).
Trends identified throughout the Big Apple The report broke down those trends with greater detail: The ZIP code for Tribeca, 10013, remained the priciest in New York City, driven primarily by its inventory of ultra-high-end condominiums. The report found that the Upper East Side – once the city’s bastion of wealth and privilege offering mostly … [Read more…]
Patricia Marroquin/Getty Images/Illustration by Bankrate
With home prices in California among the highest in the country, owning a piece of property here likely means you’ll need to borrow some money. You shouldn’t just borrow from the first mortgage lender you find, though. Compare mortgage lenders in California to find an option that’ll help lower your costs — and stress — on the road to closing. Here are some of the best lenders in the state that have earned high marks from Bankrate and positive feedback from borrowers.
Best mortgage lenders in California
Lender
Credit requirements
Down payment minimum
Bankrate Score
Veterans United Home Loans
620 for conventional and VA loans
3% for conventional loans, 3.5% for FHA loans, none for VA and USDA loans
4.9
Bethpage Federal Credit Union
620 for conventional loans, 500 for FHA loans
3% for conventional loans, 3.5% for FHA loans
4.9
Wells Fargo
620 for conventional loans
3% for conventional loans, 3.5% for FHA loans, none for VA and USDA loans
4.8
First Mortgage Direct
620 for conventional loans, 580 for FHA and VA loans
3% for conventional loans, 3.5% for FHA loans, none for VA and USDA loans
4.8
New American Funding
620 for conventional loans
3% for conventional loans, 3.5% for FHA loans, none for VA and USDA loans
4.8
Availability: All U.S. states
Loans offered: Conventional, jumbo, FHA, VA, USDA
Credit requirements: 620 for conventional and VA loans
Down payment minimum: 3% for conventional loans, 3.5% for FHA loans, none for VA and USDA loans
Where to find: Branch locations and online
Pros
Specializes in VA loans; 24/7 customer service over the phone; free credit counseling for service members
Cons
Doesn’t offer HELOCs or home equity loans; limited number of branches
Availability: All U.S. states except Texas
Loans offered: Conventional, jumbo, FHA
Credit requirements: 620 for conventional loans, 500 for FHA loans
Down payment minimum: 3% for conventional loans, 3.5% for FHA loans
Where to find: Branch locations and online
Pros
Displays rates online; rates tend to be lower than the national average; offers HELOCs
Cons
Must be a member; doesn’t offer USDA loans; only offers VA refinances
Availability: All U.S. states
Loans offered: Conventional, jumbo, FHA, VA, USDA
Credit requirements: 620 for conventional loans
Down payment minimum: 3% for conventional loans, 3.5% for FHA loans, none for VA and USDA loans
Where to find: Branch locations and online
Pros
Displays mortgage rates online; massive branch network; will consider non-traditional credit references in application process; offers low-down payment options to assist lower-income borrowers
Cons
Dialed back its mortgage offerings; no longer offers HELOCs; below-average customer satisfaction scores and negative past customer reviews
Availability: All U.S. states
Loans offered: Conventional, jumbo, FHA, VA, USDA
Credit requirements: 620 for conventional loans, 580 for FHA loans and VA loans
Down payment minimum: 3% for conventional loans, 3.5% for FHA loans, none for VA and USDA loans
Where to find: Online
Pros
Customized online quote tool; no origination or hidden fees
Cons
Preapprovals take slightly longer compared to other lenders
Availability: All U.S. states except Hawaii and New York
Loans offered: Conventional, jumbo, FHA, VA, USDA
Credit requirements: 620 for conventional loans
Down payment minimum: 3% for conventional loans, 3.5% for FHA loans, none for VA and USDA loans
Where to find: Branch locations and online
Pros
Displays current mortgage rates online; initiatives that focus on serving minority borrowers, including down payment grants; more than 170 branch locations
Cons
Not available in Hawaii or New York
How to find the best mortgage lender in California
While the best mortgage lender ultimately depends on individual circumstances and what feels “right” to you, it’s helpful to narrow down your options. Here are some tips:
Set your priorities. Do you want to talk to a loan officer in person? Do you need a faster closing? Want to apply for and track your mortgage status through an app? Consider these and other questions as you come up with your short list of lenders.
Get prequalified or preapproved. If you haven’t determined a homebuying budget, get prequalified for a mortgage first. This can help you understand how much a lender might allow you to borrow based on some preliminary financial information. If you’re ready to shop for homes, skip the prequalification and ask for a preapproval, which involves a credit check.
Ask about first-time buyer and down payment assistance. Many mortgage lenders in California work with the state’s housing finance agency to connect eligible borrowers with more affordable mortgages and down payment help. Some programs are available to both first-time and repeat buyers, too. Compare what different lenders offer and how that might impact your budget.
California conforming loan limits
Depending on the type of loan you use to purchase your home, it might be subject to conforming loan limits:
Conventional loan: $766,550 in most counties
FHA loan: $498,257 in most counties
Check out Bankrate’s county-by-county listing of conforming loan limits in California to see what applies to you.
California first-time homebuyer programs
If you qualify as a first-time homebuyer — meaning you haven’t owned a home in the last three years — see if you’re eligible for one of California’s programs designed to put purchasing a home within your reach. The California Housing Finance Agency, also known as CalHFA, offers a range of options geared toward buyers with low or moderate incomes for the area. You might be able to qualify for a loan with a low interest rate and/or a deferred loan to help cover a down payment and closing costs.
Certain cities might offer additional help, so be sure to search for municipal housing authority options, too. In Sacramento, for example, the Community Homeownership Initiative offers grants up to $22,000 for certain low-income first-time homebuyers.
To determine the best mortgage lenders by state, Bankrate evaluated lenders based on affordability, availability and borrower experience. The best lenders generally have a Bankrate Score of 4.8 or higher. Learn more about our methodology.
As of this morning, it looked like the theme for mortgage rates in 2024 would be up, up, and away–at least as far as the first two business days were concerned. The average 30yr fixed rate had risen 0.10% in 2 days after spending the previous 10 business days holding no more than 0.06% above the 7 month lows.
In other words, rates had been uncommonly willing to remain uncommonly close to long-term lows and that suddenly looked like it was beginning to change.
But things changed again after this morning’s economic data. The hotly anticipated Job Openings data came in slightly below forecast. The total was under 9 million for the 2nd month in a row–the first time that’s happened since job openings were still on the way up in 2021.
Bonds (which determine rates) are looking for evidence of a cooler labor market, among other things. This is one of the reports that’s in a position to provide such evidence. After the release, bonds improved and that eventually allowed mortgage lenders to reprice with lower rates in the afternoon.
The mid-day change doesn’t get the average lender back to the lowest recent levels, but it suggests that the market is not predisposed to moving higher. From here, the next critical data will be the big jobs report on Friday morning.
If you’ve been sitting on the housing market sidelines because of sky-high mortgage rates, there’s good and bad news heading into 2024. The good? Mortgage rates are expected to drop in the new year. The bad? They probably won’t drop as much as you’d like.
“The pandemic was too hot; 2023 was too cold,” says Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation, a title insurance and settlement services provider. “2024 won’t be just right, but it will be heading in a normalizing direction.”
Mortgage rates climbed for most of 2023, reaching nearly 8%—a level not seen in two decades. Though a far cry from the double-digit highs of the 1970 and 80s, for hopeful buyers, those rates crushed affordability. And for would-be sellers, they had a lock-in effect. Homeowners who might have otherwise sold instead stayed put not wanting to lose existing—much-lower—interest rates.
Keeping with many other housing economists, Kushi expects mortgage rates to decline in 2024—but only a modest amount. Should those predictions ring true, the question is whether the drop will be enough to shift housing affordability in the right direction.
How far could mortgage rates drop in 2024?
The consensus among industry professionals is that mortgage rates will gradually decline across 2024. Here’s where experts are predicting mortgage rates will land by the end of 2024:
Source
Projected 30-year mortgage rate (by end of 2024)
Mortgage Bankers Association
6.1%
Fannie Mae
6.5%
Realtor.com
6.5%
Redfin
6.6%
National Association of Realtors
6 to 7%
At the close of 2023, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.61%, according to Freddie Mac. While that’s about average historically—and down more than a full percentage point since rates peaked at 7.79% in October—such high rates were unthinkable just two-years ago.
Back then, the Federal Reserve was holding short-term interest rates near zero to spur the pandemic-battered economy, and mortgage lenders were offering rates below 3%. This pushed up demand for mortgages from home buyers, as well as from homeowners looking to refinance existing loans. Once the Fed started raising rates to fight inflation in March 2022, though, mortgage lenders reversed course. The result was steadily rising home-financing costs, slowing home sales and essentially nonexistent refinance demand.
The year ahead is poised to be another turning point in the mortgage world. With inflation seemingly under control, the Fed has signaled it could begin cutting interest rates in 2024, likely around midyear. While the Fed doesn’t directly determine mortgage rates, it’s likely that lenders will again follow the Fed’s lead. “Our modeling suggests a gradual, steady decline,” says Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. (News Corp, parent of The Wall Street Journal, operates Realtor.com.)
But there are no guarantees. “The primary factor for mortgage rates is ongoing improvement in inflation,” Hale says. “If we don’t see that progress on a sustained basis, we would be looking at a very different, higher interest rate environment.”
If inflation starts rising again, rates may stay higher for longer. On the other hand, if inflation falls below the Fed’s 2% target or the economy shows signs of distress, the Fed may move to lower rates sooner than anticipated.
“After a couple of years of exceedingly low rates, we may need to redefine what a normal market is supposed to look like,” says Miki Adams, president of CBC Mortgage Agency, a mortgage lender and down payment assistance provider in South Jordan, Utah.
What lower mortgage rates could mean for home buyers
A fall in mortgage rates is obviously good news for hopeful home buyers. But will those lower rates be a game changer? Likely not for most consumers. Here’s what we can expect falling mortgage rates to look like on the ground.
Affordability will improve—a bit
Lower rates will make mortgage payments lower, but buyers shouldn’t expect any drastic improvements in affordability. On a $500,000 loan, for example, a 7% rate would mean a monthly mortgage payment of just over $3,300. At Realtor.com’s projected year-end 6.5% rate, that payment would drop to $3,160—a difference of only $140.
If rates fall as far as MBA’s predictions—6.1% and the lowest among industry forecasts—the savings could be more notable. In that same scenario, the savings would be about $270 a month.
There could be more homes for sale—and slower price growth
The high mortgage rates of 2023 haven’t just stymied buyers. They’ve also kept existing homeowners stuck in place—80% of whom have current mortgage rates under 5%.
There’s hope that lower rates in 2024 could spur some of these homeowners to enter the market, thereby increasing listings and putting downward pressure on prices. But again, experts say the impact will likely be minimal (at least from a national perspective).
“Certainly, rates dropping will help to unlock some homeowners, especially those sitting on a ton of equity,” Kushi says. “But it won’t be sufficient to unlock the majority of existing homeowners.”
Fannie Mae currently projects a 4.1% increase in home prices by the end of next year (down from 5.7% price growth this year). In some competitive housing markets, though, the impact of more listings could be felt more significantly. In Dallas, for instance, Realtor.com is projecting an 8% fall in home prices next year; over 5% in San Francisco.
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Mortgage demand fell over the holidays despite declining mortgage rates.
Mortgage applications decreased 9.4% for the week ending Dec. 29 compared to two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate closed 2023 at 6.76%, more than one percentage point lower than its October peak of 7.9%, according to Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist.
“The recent decline in rates has given the housing market some cause for optimism going into 2024, but purchase applications have not yet picked up in response, with the overall level of purchase activity 12% lower than a year ago,” Kan said in a statement.
Purchase applications decreased by 5% week over week on an adjusted basis. Meanwhile, refinance applications remained at very low levels but were 15% higher than a year ago.
“The housing market has been hampered by a limited supply of homes for sale, but the recent strength in new residential construction will continue to help ease inventory shortages in the months to come,” Kan added.
The share of Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan activity decreased to 14.5% from 15% the week prior. The share of Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) loan activity was 14.6%, down from 17.3% over the previous week, while the share of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) loan activity increased to 0.5% compared to 0.4% the previous week.
You can sense it in the ubiquitous “Help Wanted” posters in artsy shops and restaurants, in the ranks of university students living out of their cars and in the outsize percentage of locals camping on the streets.
This seaside county known for its windswept beauty and easy living is in the midst of one of the most serious housing crises anywhere in home-starved California. Santa Cruz County, home to a beloved surf break and a bohemian University of California campus, also claims the state’s highest rate of homelessness and, by one measure based on local incomes, its least affordable housing.
Leaders in the city of Santa Cruz have responded to this hardship in a land of plenty — and to new state laws demanding construction of more affordable housing — with a plan to build up rather than out.
A downtown long centered on quaint sycamore-lined Pacific Avenue has boomed with new construction in recent years. Shining glass and metal apartment complexes sprout in multiple locations, across a streetscape once dominated by 20th century classics like the Art Deco-inspired Palomar Inn apartments.
And the City Council and planning department envision building even bigger and higher, with high-rise apartments of up to 12 stories in the southern section of downtown that comes closest to the city’s boardwalk and the landmark wooden roller coaster known as the Giant Dipper.
“It’s on everybody’s lips now, this talk about our housing challenge,” said Don Lane, a former mayor and an activist for homeless people. “The old resistance to development is breaking down, at least among a lot of people.”
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Said current Mayor Fred Keeley, a former state assemblyman: “It’s not a question of ‘no growth’ anymore. It’s a question of where are you going to do this. You can spread it all over the city, or you can make the urban core more dense.”
But not everyone in famously tolerant Santa Cruz is going along. The high-rise push has spawned a backlash, exposing sharp divisions over growth and underscoring the complexities, even in a city known for its progressive politics, of trying to keep desirable communities affordable for the teachers, waiters, firefighters and store clerks who provide the bulk of services.
A group originally called Stop the Skyscrapers — now Housing for People — protests that a proposed city “housing element” needlessly clears the way for more apartments than state housing officials demand, while providing too few truly affordable units.
City officials say the plan they hope to finalize in the coming weeks, with its greater height limits, only creates a path for new construction. The intentions of individual property owners and the vicissitudes of the market will continue to make it challenging to build the 3,736 additional units the state has mandated for the city.
“We’ve talked to a lot of people, going door to door, and the feeling is it’s just too much, too fast,” said Frank Barron, a retired county planner and Housing for People co-founder. “The six- and seven-story buildings that they’re building now are already freaking people out. When they hear what [the city is] proposing now could go twice as high, they’re completely aghast.”
Susan Monheit, a former state water official and another Housing for People co-founder, calls 12-story buildings “completely out of the human scale,” adding: “It’s out of scale with Santa Cruz’s branding.”
Housing for People has gathered enough signatures to put a measure on the March 2024 ballot that, if approved, would require a vote of the people for development anywhere in the city that would exceed the zoning restrictions codified in the current general plan, which include a cap of roughly seven or eight stories downtown.
The activists say that they are trying to restore the voices of everyday Santa Cruzans and that city leaders are giving in to out-of-town builders and “developer overreach laws.”
The nascent campaign has generated spirited debate. Opponents contend the slow-growth measure would slam on the brakes, just as the city is overcoming decades of construction inertia. They say Santa Cruz should be a proud outlier in a long string of wealthy coastal cities that have defied the state’s push to add housing and bring down exorbitant home prices and rental costs.
Diana Alfaro, who works for a Santa Cruz development company, said many of the complaints about high-rise construction sound like veiled NIMBYism.
“We always hear, ‘I support affordable housing, but just not next to me. Not here. Not there. Not really anywhere,’ ” said Alfaro, an activist with the national political group YIMBY [Yes In My Back Yard] Action. “Is that really being inclusive?”
The dispute has divided Santa Cruz’s progressive political universe. What does it mean to be a “good liberal” on land-use issues in an era when UC Santa Cruz students commonly triple up in small rooms and Zillow reports a median rent of $3,425 that is higher than San Francisco’s?
Beginning in the 1970s, left-leaning students at the new UC campus helped power a slow-growth movement that limited construction across broad swaths of Santa Cruz County. Over the decades, the need for affordable housing was a recurring discussion. The county was a leader in requiring that builders who put up five units of housing or more set aside 15% of the units at below-market rates.
But Mayor Keeley said local officials gave only a “head nod” to the issue when it came to approving specific projects. “Well, here we are, 30 or 40 years later,” Keeley said, “and these communities are not affordable.”
Today, with 265,000 residents, the county is substantially wealthy and white.
An annual survey this year found Santa Cruz County pushed past San Francisco to be the least affordable rental market in the country, given income levels in both places. And many observers say UC Santa Cruz students contend with the toughest housing market of any college town in the state.
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State legislators have crafted dozens of laws in recent years to encourage construction of more homes, particularly apartments. While California has long required local governments to draft “housing elements” to demonstrate their commitment to affordable housing, state officials only recently passed other measures to actually push cities to put the plans into practice.
Regional government associations draw up a Regional Housing Needs Assessment, designating how many housing units — including affordable ones — should be built during an eight-year cycle. The state Department of Housing and Community Development can reject plans it deems inadequate.
For years 2024 to 2031, Santa Cruz was told it should build at least 3,736 units, on top of its existing 24,036.
Santa Cruz and other cities have been motivated, at least in part, by a heavy “stick”: In cases when cities fail to produce adequate housing plans, the state’s so-called “builder’s remedy” essentially allows developers to propose building whatever they want, provided some of the housing is set aside for low- or middle-income families. In cities like Santa Monica and La Cañada-Flintridge, builders have invoked the builder’s remedy to push ahead with large housing projects, over the objections of city leaders.
The Santa Cruz City Council resolved to avoid losing control of planning decisions. A key part of their plan envisions putting up to 1,800 units in a sleepy downtown neighborhood of auto shops, stores and low-rise apartments south of Laurel Street. Initial concepts suggested one block could go as high as 175 feet (roughly 16 stories), but council members later proposed a 12-story height limit, substantially taller than the stately eight-story Palomar, which remains the city’s tallest building.
City planners say focusing growth in the downtown neighborhood makes sense, because bus lines converge there at a transit center and residents can walk to shops and services.
“The demand for housing is not going away,” said Lee Butler, the city’s director of planning and community development, “and this means we will have less development pressure in other areas of the city and county, where it is less sustainable to grow.”
A public survey found support for a variety of other proposed improvements to make the downtown more attractive to walkers, bikers and tourists. Among other features, the plan would concentrate new restaurants and shops around the San Lorenzo River Walk; replace the fabric-topped 2,400-seat Kaiser Permanente Arena, which hosts the Santa Cruz Warriors (the G-league affiliate of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors), with a bigger entertainment and sports venue; and better connect downtown with the beach and boardwalk.
Business owners say they favor the housing plan for a couple of reasons: They hope new residents will bring new commerce, and they want some of the affordable apartments to go to their workers, who frequently commute well over an hour from places such as Gilroy and Salinas.
Restaurateur Zach Davis called the high cost of housing “the No. 1 factor” that led to the 2018 closure of Assembly, a popular farm-to-table restaurant he co-owned.
“How do we keep our community intact, if the people who make it all happen, the workers who make Santa Cruz what it is, can’t afford to live here anymore?” Davis asked.
The city’s plan indicates that 859 of the units built over the next eight years will be for “very low income” families. But the term is relative, tied to a community’s median income, which in Santa Cruz is $132,800 for a family of four. Families bringing home between $58,000 and $82,000 would qualify as very low income. Tenants in that bracket would pay $1,800 a month for a three-bedroom apartment in one recently completed complex, built under the city’s requirement that 20% of units be rented for below-market rents.
The people pushing for high-rise development say expanding the housing supply will stem ever-rising rents. Opponents counter that the continued growth of UC Santa Cruz, which hopes to add 8,500 students by 2040, and a new surge of highly paid Silicon Valley “tech bros” looking to put down roots in beachy Santa Cruz would quickly gobble up whatever number of new units are built.
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“They say that if you just build more housing, the prices will come down. Which is, of course, not true,” said Gary Patton, a former county supervisor and an original leader in the slow-growth movement. “So we’ll have lots more housing, with lots more traffic, less parking, more neighborhood impacts and more rich people moving into Santa Cruz.”
Leaders on Santa Cruz’s political left say new construction only touches one aspect of the housing crisis. Some of the leaders of Tenant Sanctuary, a renters’ rights group, would like to see Santa Cruz tamp down rents by creating complexes owned by the state or cooperatives and enacting a rent control law capping annual increases.
“No matter what they build, we need housing where the price is not tied to market swings and how much money can be squeezed out of a given area of land,” said Zav Hershfield, a board member for the group.
The up-zoning of downtown parcels has won the support of much of the city’s establishment, including the county Chamber of Commerce, whose chief executive said exorbitant housing prices are excluding blue-collar workers and even some well-paid professionals. “The question is, do you want a lively, vital, economically thriving community?” said Casey Beyer, CEO of the business group. “Or do you want to be a sleepy retirement community?”
Just days after the anti-high-rise measure qualified for the March ballot, the two sides began bickering over what impact it would have.
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Lane, the former mayor, and two affordable housing developers wrote an op-ed for the Lookout Santa Cruz news site that said the ballot measure is crafted so broadly it would apply to all “development projects.” They contend that could trigger the need for citywide votes for projects as modest as raising a fence from 6 feet to 7 feet, adding an ADU to a residential property or building a shelter for the homeless, if the projects exceed current practices in a given neighborhood.
The authors accused ballot measure proponents of faux environmentalism. “If we don’t go up,” they wrote, “we have less housing near jobs — and more people driving longer distances to get to work.”
The ballot measure proponents countered that their critics were misrepresenting facts. They said the measure would not necessitate voter approval for mundane improvements and would come into play in relatively few circumstances, for projects that require amendments to the city’s General Plan.
While not staking out a formal position on the ballot measure, the city’s planning staff has concluded the measure could force citizen votes for relatively modest construction projects.
The two sides also can’t agree on the impact of a second provision of the ballot measure. It would increase from 20% to 25% the percentage of “inclusionary” (below-market-rate) units that developers would have to include in complexes of 30 units or more.
The ballot measure writers say such an increase signals their intent to assure that as much new housing as possible goes to the less affluent. But their opponents say that when cities try to force developers to include too many sub-market apartments, the builders end up walking away.
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Santa Cruz’s housing inventory shows that the city has the potential to add as many as 8,364 units in the next eight years, when factoring in proposals such as the downtown high-rises and UC Santa Cruz’s plan to add about 1,200 units of student housing. That’s more than double the number required by the state. But the Department of Housing and Community Development requires this sort of “buffer,” because the reality is that many properties zoned for denser housing won’t get developed during the eight-year cycle.
As with many aspects of the downtown up-zoning, the two sides are at odds over whether incorporating the potential for extra development amounts to judicious planning or developer-friendly overkill.
The city’s voters have rejected housing-related measures three times in recent years. In 2018, they decisively turned down a rent control proposal. Last year, they said no to taxing owners who leave homes in the community sitting empty. But they also rejected a measure that would have blocked a plan to relocate the city’s central library while also building 124 below-market-rate apartment units.
The last time locals got this worked up about their downtown may have been at the start of the new millennium, when the City Council considered cracking down on street performers. That prompted the owner of Bookshop Santa Cruz, another local landmark, to print T-shirts and bumper stickers entreating fellow residents to “Keep Santa Cruz Weird.”
Santa Cruzans once again are being asked to consider the look and feel of their downtown and whether its future should be left to the City Council, or voters themselves. The measure provokes myriad questions, including these: Can funky, earnest, compassionate Santa Cruz remain that way, even with high-rise apartments? And, with so little housing for students and working folks, has it already lost its charm?