earnings

This is a guest post from Financial Samurai. The views of guest authors are their views and not necessarily mine. That said, I think it’s a good thing to read and share ideas that differ from your own. (And, in fact, I’d argue that many of our larger political problems in the U.S. today stem from an unwillingness to do just this.) Over the past fifteen years, I’ve published many guest articles I didn’t agree with. I’m sure to publish more in the future. With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s look at Sam’s arguments for re-thinking the four-percent safe withdrawal rate.

On 27 August 2020, the Federal Reserve announced a major policy shift. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is willing to allow inflation to run hotter than normal in order to support the labor market and broader economy.

In other words, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep its Fed Funds rate at or near zero percent for longer. In the past, the Federal Reserve would consider raising interest rates when the unemployment rate falls to ward off inflation down the road.

Given this policy shift, I think you’d be a fool to follow a four-percent safe withdrawal rate in retirement. Let me tell you why.