And then there’s the ARMs snapshot: “They also have a huge exposure to ARMs,” Sykes said. “They have 40% of their mortgage business in 7/1 ARMs and 25% in 5/1 ARMs.” Overall, the effect of inflation is part of the mix too as many secure their funds, Sykes noted. “As things have gotten more expensive … [Read more…]
Fixed-Rate Mortgages Pose Problem for First Republic Bank The Real Deal
Mortgage Rates for March 22, 2023: Rates Recede Slightly CNET
While not expecting a repeat of the 2008 Financial Crisis, the ESR Group believes the ongoing banking instability may affect jumbo mortgages and residential construction loans. Nevertheless, the housing sector is expected to moderate any future recession due to significant pent-up demand. “The Savings & Loan Crisis from the 1980s to be a better analogy, … [Read more…]
A key gauge of U.S. inflation rose last month by less than expected and consumer spending stabilized, suggesting the Federal Reserve may be close to ending its most aggressive cycle of interest-rate hikes in decades. Excluding food and energy, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index — rose 0.3% in … [Read more…]
Critics say the Fed, Silicon Valley Bank’s primary federal regulator, should have intervened to prevent the bank from selling its hedges last year, especially considering the central bank’s supervisors had been flagging issues related to risk management and corporate governance at the bank since late 2021. In one year, Silicon Valley Bank went from having … [Read more…]
What the banking crisis means for mortgage rates CNN
Historically, April is the strongest month for the S&P 500 index. Signs are mixed for April 2023, though there is room for optimism.
Volume and volatility have rapidly died down over the past 3 days as the market settles into a waiting game. What are we waiting for? Successive days without bank drama, bigger ticket econ data, and any new evidence that helps confirm a Fed pivot. It’s worth noting that these instances of incredibly narrow, sideways trading ranges tend to be fleeting. We don’t have any perfectly correlated examples, but if we cherry pick the last 3 best candidates (3 trading days inside a 10bp range), we see each only lasted for a few days before volatility picked up noticeably.