fed

Slightly Weaker, But It Could Have Been Worse

Slightly Weaker, But It Could Have Been Worse Bonds are heading out the door in only moderately weaker territory.  One of the day’s most notable developments was the fact that stronger trading levels prevailed in the AM hours despite stronger econ data, looming supply, and another day of Fed Chair Powell testimony.  It was really only after the poorly-received 10yr Treasury auction that things turned south for longer-term bonds.  Even then, 10yr yields rising only 1.1bps feels like a victory given the bearish inputs digested by the market.  Unfortunately, this silver lining simply shows the capacity for resilience.  Whether or not the resilience materializes depends almost entirely on Friday’s jobs report and next week’s CPI data.   Econ Data / Events ADP Employment 242k vs 200k f’cast, 119k prev Market Movement Recap 09:57 AM Roughly unchanged overnight, then stronger at the 8:20am CME open and 9:30am NYSE open.  MBS up almost a quarter point.  10yr down 6bps at 3.91% 10:35 AM 2-way trading after JOLTS and initial Powell comments.  Briefly weaker, but bouncing back.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 6bps at 3.91% still. 11:32 AM MBS back to weakest levels, roughly unchanged on the day, but down a quarter point from highs.  No standout motivations.  Just moderate volatility within the recent range. 01:05 PM More weakness after 10yr Treasury auction.  10yr up 1.1bps at 3.98.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19). 04:23 PM Sideways at weaker levels all afternoon.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields up 1.3bps at 3.983.

Mortgage rates climb as Fed signals more aggressive rate hikes

Interest rates on home loans, which were already ticking upward, jumped last week, and it’s adding affordability challenges to the market. 

Homebuyers Beware: The Fed Just Jammed Another Wrench Into the Spring Housing Market

On the precipice of the hotly anticipated spring housing market, the U.S. Federal Reserve just dealt homebuyers another crushing blow.

Rate Hike Expectations Ramp Up Post Powell

Rate Hike Expectations Ramp Up Post Powell Even though Fed Chair Powell didn’t say anything remarkably new or different, markets read enough into his delivery to change the course of Fed Funds Rate expectations in a meaningful way.  December’s forecast (per Fed Funds Futures) was closer to 5.3% this morning, but rose to 5.5% by 2pm.  There was even a reaction for the meeting in 2 weeks.  Markets don’t see a 50bp hike yet, but the reaction suggests that could change if NFP and CPI data come in hot between now and then.  Short-term yields got whacked.  30yr yields moved lower on the day.  MBS split the difference and sold off moderately.  Today’s video explains all of the above in greater detail.  Econ Data / Events Wholesale Inventories -0.4 vs -0.4 f’cast/prev Market Movement Recap 09:04 AM modestly stronger overnight with lower volume exaggerating an EU-led rally.  10yr down 2.6bps at 3.94.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06). 10:38 AM Initially weaker on Powell’s prepared comments.  Brief bounce back, but settling at unchanged to slightly weaker levels.  10yr up half a bp to 3.97%.  MBS down just under a quarter point. 12:49 PM Moving back into positive territory now, mostly due to curve trading (yield curve -102.6bs!).  10yr down 2.8bps at 3.938 and MBS up 1 tick (0.03). 02:08 PM Weaker since 1pm with MBS down a quarter point from most recent highs and just over a quarter point on the day.  10yr up almost 1bp at 3.974.

What to expect for Houston’s housing market, mortgage rates in 2023 – Houston Chronicle

What to expect for Houston’s housing market, mortgage rates in 2023  Houston Chronicle

Silvergate is in talks with FDIC officials on ways to salvage bank

Silvergate headquarters in La Jolla, CaliforniaAriana Drehsler/Photographer: Ariana Drehsler/Bl (Bloomberg) –US regulators have been sent to the headquarters of Silvergate Capital Corp., as the troubled crypto-friendly bank looks for a way to stay in business. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. officials have been discussing with management ways to avoid a shutdown, according to people familiar with … [Read more…]

Current national mortgage and refinance rates, March 6th, 2023: Rates rise – Bankrate.com

Current national mortgage and refinance rates, March 6th, 2023: Rates rise  Bankrate.com

Traders are betting the Fed will hike rates by a half-point in March

(Bloomberg) — Bond traders boosted bets that the Federal Reserve may re-accelerate the pace of rate increases at the policy meeting later this month, after central bank head Jerome Powell said he’s ready for faster monetary tightening if economic data justifies it. Interest-rate swaps Tuesday showed a shift in bets for the March 22 meeting, … [Read more…]

Mortgage demand took a big step back last week, even after interest rates fell further – CNBC

Mortgage demand took a big step back last week, even after interest rates fell further  CNBC

Powell sees higher peak for interest rates

Chair Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve is likely to lift interest rates higher and potentially faster than previously anticipated with inflation persisting, an unexpectedly aggressive posture following last month’s step down in the pace of hikes. The remarks, coming in testimony before Congress on Tuesday, opened the door to officials lifting the Fed’s benchmark … [Read more…]