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More Yield Curve Musings and Retail Sales Reaction

More Yield Curve Musings and Retail Sales Reaction Retail Sales was today’s big ticket data point and it came in quite a bit stronger than expected.  Bonds reacted about like you’d expect with yields rising immediately after the data.  MBS didn’t get hit quite as hard.  Part of the reason was the shape of yield curve trading today.  There was also plenty of corporate issuance and a 20yr bond auction that weighed Treasuries down a bit compared to MBS.  Today’s video discusses (and attempts to simplify, a bit…) the yield curve and some curve trading considerations. Econ Data / Events Retail Sales  3.0 vs -1.9 f’cast,-1.1 prev NY Fed Manufacturing -5.8 vs -18.0 f’cast, -32.9 prev Industrial Production 0.0 vs 0.5 f’cast, -1.0 prev NAHB Builder Confidence 42 vs 37 f’cast, 35 prev Market Movement Recap 09:49 AM Flat overnight, then logically weaker after data.  Some surprising resilience since then.  MBS unchanged and 10yr up less than 1bp at 3.761. 12:11 PM Progressively weaker Treasuries with 10yr yields up 6bps at 3.81+.  MBS near lows, down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 6 ticks (.19) versus the AM highs. 02:38 PM Sideways volatility for Treasuries after the 20yr bond auction, but still near previous levels, with 10yr yields up 6bps at 3.814.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16).

Marketing, PPE, Broker to Banker, Customer Experience Tools; CFPB on Credit Payments; Disaster News; Redfin in the Red

Nature is full of trivia. The moon moves about two inches away from the Earth each year. The Earth gets 100 tons heavier every day due to falling space dust. The climate, obviously, is part of nature. Climate, and natural disasters, impact our clients, people, insurance premiums, and the value of servicing in areas prone to hurricanes, flooding, forest fires, and earthquakes. A certain portion of those events (the number is increasing) are determined by FEMA to be natural disasters, and last year 3.4 million adults in the U.S. were at one point or another forced to evacuate their homes due to one, according to the Census Bureau. Approximately 1.4 percent of the American adult population. That’s a lot higher than historical averages, up to 800,000 on average for the years between 2008 and 2021. 12 percent were people displaced for over six months and 16 percent were adults who never returned home. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA) has published A Collection of Essays on Climate Risk and the Housing Market. It “was developed in response to the growing interest from industry participants on how various issues were connected to climate risk. The study features four essays from industry experts that focus on topline issues related to climate risk and its impact on the housing market.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by the STRATMOR Group, the data-driven mortgage advisory. At STRATMOR, insights and knowledge are applied to guide mortgage clients to make sound strategic decisions and take actions that improve their success. Todays has an interview with Partner Garth Graham on tech trends and adoption of tech solutions.)

History says 6%-plus mortgage rates are still too low – OCRegister

History says 6%-plus mortgage rates are still too low  OCRegister

How to prepare for a recession

A recession can put your finances out of whack. But here are a few steps you can take to protect yourself against that financial turmoil.A recession can put your finances out of whack. But here are a few steps you can take to protect yourself against that financial turmoil.

The post How to prepare for a recession appeared first on Money Under 30.

Another Day, Another Sell-Off

Another Day, Another Sell-Off Bonds may not have sold off in an overly excessive manner today, but they sold off nonetheless.  In other words, rates went higher.  The early culprits were twofold: a surprisingly hot Producer Price Index and some comments from Fed’s Mester on the prospect of a 50bp rate hike.  Then in the afternoon, Fed’s Bullard said similar stuff and went a step further, saying he wouldn’t rule anything out for the next meeting.  All this after Fed members spent the past 3 weeks sounding unified on “25bps is all we need.”  The sudden shift in tone spooked bonds a bit, but it’s still up to data to drive the decision.  Fed Funds Futures suggest we haven’t yet seen enough data to price in a 50bp hike.  The result is intraday volatility that gives way to moderate additional weakness. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 194 vs 200 f’cast, 195 prev Core Producer Prices M/M 0.5 vs 0.3 f’cast Philly Fed -24.3 vs -7.4 f’cast, -8.9 prev Housing Starts 1.309m vs 1.360m f’cast, 1.371m prev Fed’s Mester:  SAW A ‘COMPELLING’ CASE FOR 50 BPS HIKE AT LAST FOMC MEETING Market Movement Recap 08:56 AM Flat overnight and weaker after data and Fed’s Mester.  10yr up 2.7bps at 3.832.  MBS down just under a quarter point. 09:44 AM Additional selling momentum in Treasuries with 10yr up 5.6bps at 3.859.  MBS down just over a quarter point. 12:45 PM Nice bounce back underway since 10am.  MBS down only 2 ticks (0.06).  10yr up only 3.5bps at 3.838 (down from 3.869). 03:09 PM Some quick selling pressure after Bullard comments on 50bp hikes.  10yr up 5.2bps at 3.855. MBS down just over a quarter point.

Current mortgage and refinance rates for February 17th, 2023 … – Bankrate.com

Current mortgage and refinance rates for February 17th, 2023 …  Bankrate.com

Southern California home prices dip in November

Southern California home prices fell again in November, the result of high mortgage interest rates that have sapped demand.

Mortgage Rates Climbing Back Toward 7%

Rates have been rising at a reasonably quick pace for most of February.  The process began in earnest after labor market data on February 3rd.  Markets were forced to reassess their outlook for the short term rates controlled by the Fed and that reassessment causes some spillover to longer-term rates like mortgages. Generally speaking, higher inflation and stronger economic data mean the Fed is likely to keep short-term rates higher for longer.  Today’s dose of stronger economic data came in the form of the Retail Sales report which showed sales up 3.0% in January after a decline of 1.1% in December.  Analysts expected a shift into positive territory, but only to the tune of +1.8%. Rates reacted by moving moderately but immediately higher.  The average conventional 30yr fixed quote is up to 6.75% now although many lenders are still quoting lower rates for reasons discussed earlier this week. 

Mortgage balances increased by nearly $1 trillion in 2022

Mortgage balances drove the uptick in household debt during the fourth quarter of 2022, with an increase of $254 billion compared to Q3.