Fed delivers the expected 25 bps rate hike. Whatâs next?Â
As expected, the Fed slowed the rate hikes in 2023 amid cooling inflation data, sparking hopes of a recovery for the housing market this year.
As expected, the Fed slowed the rate hikes in 2023 amid cooling inflation data, sparking hopes of a recovery for the housing market this year.
This action by the nation’s central bank stands to affect every consumer for better or for worse.
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Unlike last week, the present example offers multiple scheduled economic reports that have consistent track records of causing market movement. Key examples include both ISM reports, ECI, JOLTS, and of course the jobs report on Friday. The Fed announcement lies smack dab in the middle on Wednesday afternoon where it is all but guaranteed that we’ll see another downshift in the pace of rate hikes (25bps). As for this morning, bonds are off to a slightly weaker start owing primarily to hotter-than-expected inflation data out of Spain. The following chart shows the relative movement in US, EU, and Spanish bond yields surrounding the announcement at 3am. It’s the latest tidbit in a large body of evidence for the market’s hypersensitivity to any and all inflation surprises. The chart above has overlaid y axes which set the highs and lows on the same visual level and adjust the y axes accordingly (only the US and Spanish axes are pictured. The next chart shows how the movement actually compares in terms of outright change (aka “Absolute Change”) from a certain time in the past.
Todayâs job report and the bond market reaction to it could be an inflection point where the market gets ahead of the Fed.
It’s hard to turn anywhere these days without hearing about the housing market slowdown, sales slumps or…
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Jerome Powell and Wall Street are headed for another face-off this week as the Federal Reserve seeks to slow its inflation-fighting campaign without signaling a readiness to stop. Despite 2022’s slew of interest-rate hikes from Chair Powell and colleagues, financial conditions are the loosest since last February as investors bet fading inflation will allow the … [Read more…]