Thursday night’s global technology outage is continuing to affect air travelers today, and it may be hours before airlines can catch up.
The outage was caused by a software update from cybersecurity company CrowdStrike, which affected millions of devices using Microsoft, including computers used by airlines, banks and other businesses. Even though CrowdStrike says a fix was deployed and airlines have resumed operations, there will continue to be cancellations and delays today.
As of 2:30 p.m. EST, more than 2,000 flights within, in and out of the U.S. were canceled today — and that’s not counting the delays, which totaled more than 7,000, according to flight tracking service FlightAware.
If you are flying today, check your flight status frequently with your airline before you go to the airport. The most up-to-date information is usually in the airline’s app, so make sure to download it ahead of time for quick access to the latest updates.
You might also want to monitor updates from your departure airport. Some airports are experiencing delays of two hours or more, according to the Federal Aviation Administration. Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) is the hardest hit airport in the U.S. right now, experiencing average delays of 374 minutes (roughly 6 hours) for departures. New York City-area airports are also some of the hardest hit, with John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) delays averaging 171 minutes (nearly 3 hours) and LaGuardia (LGA) averaging 129 minutes (just over 2 hours).
Here are some other steps you can take if you are one of the affected passengers traveling or planning to travel today.
Change your flight
American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Frontier Airlines, Spirit Airlines and United Airlines have issued waivers for passengers traveling today from certain airports. These waivers will allow passengers to change flights to another day without having to pay a fare difference or change fee. You cannot change the departure or arrival airport or your cabin.
Delta’s and Frontier’s waiver applies to all customers flying today, regardless of airport. Spirit Airlines’ waiver applies to all customers flying today and tomorrow.
American’s waiver, meanwhile, is available for flyers traveling to, from or through these airports:
Boston, Massachusetts (BOS).
Charlotte, North Carolina (CLT).
Chicago-O’Hare, Illinois (ORD).
Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas (DFW).
Los Angeles, California (LAX).
Miami, Florida (MIA).
New York-JFK, New York (JFK).
New York-LGA, New York (LGA).
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (PHL).
Phoenix, Arizona (PHX).
Washington-Reagan, Washington, D.C. (DCA).
The United Airlines waiver affects travelers going to, from or through these airports:
Cleveland, Ohio (CLE).
Denver, Colorado (DEN).
Newark, New Jersey (EWR).
Frankfurt, Germany. (FRA).
Guam, United States (GUM).
Honolulu, Hawaii (HNL).
Washington-Dulles, Washington, D.C. (IAD).
Houston, Texas (IAH).
Los Angeles, California (LAX).
London- Heathrow, United Kingdom (LHR).
Orlando, Florida (MCO).
Chicago-O’Hare, Illinois (ORD).
San Francisco, California (SFO).
What to do if your flight is canceled
If an airline cancels your flights, look for rebooking options in the app or online right away. That’ll be faster than waiting for a customer service agent over the phone or at the airport. Keep in mind that airlines are being bombarded with calls and messages right now, so expect longer on hold times.
Here are the cancellation policies by airline:
🤓Nerdy Tip
If you’re not getting through to a customer service agent, you can try reaching out to your airline on X (formerly Twitter).
What to do if your flight is delayed
If you must fly out today, get comfortable at the airport. You might be waiting a while. This is when a credit card with lounge access might be handy. Though you probably won’t be escaping crowds there, it might give you a more comfortable place to sit while you wait it out.
In the interim, you can work on getting your flight delay compensation to pay for meals at the airport during the delay. Most airlines will give meal vouchers for delays of three hours or more.
Here are the flight delay compensation policies by airline:
Other ways to get compensation
When an airline cancels or significantly delays a flight, the Department of Transportation only requires airlines to refund passengers if the passenger chooses not to accept the rebooking. If you opt to not travel with your original airline or you simply decide not to travel altogether, you are entitled to a refund.
Top cards with travel insurance
Chase Sapphire Preferred® Card
on Chase’s website
Chase Sapphire Reserve®
on Chase’s website
The Platinum Card® from American Express
Ink Business Preferred® Credit Card
on Chase’s website
Annual fee
Travel protections (not a comprehensive list)
• Trip delay: Up to $500 per ticket for delays more than 12 hours.
• Trip cancellation: Up to $10,000 per person and $20,000 per trip. Maximum benefit of $40,000 per 12-month period.
• Trip interruption: Up to $10,000 per person and $20,000 per trip. Maximum benefit of $40,000 per 12-month period.
• Baggage delay: Up to $100 per day for five days.
• Lost luggage: Up to $3,000 per passenger.
• Trip delay: Up to $500 per ticket for delays more than 6 hours.
• Trip cancellation: Up to $10,000 per person and $20,000 per trip. Maximum benefit of $40,000 per 12-month period.
• Trip interruption: Up to $10,000 per person and $20,000 per trip. Maximum benefit of $40,000 per 12-month period.
• Baggage delay: Up to $100 per day for five days.
• Lost luggage: Up to $3,000 per passenger.
• Trip delay: Up to $500 per trip for delays more than 6 hours.
• Trip cancellation: Up to $10,000 per trip. Maximum benefit of $20,000 per 12-month period.
• Trip interruption: Up to $10,000 per trip. Maximum benefit of $20,000 per 12-month period.
• Lost luggage: Up to $3,000 per passenger.
Terms apply.
• Trip delay: Up to $500 per ticket for delays more than 12 hours.
• Trip cancellation: Up to $10,000 per trip. Maximum benefit of $20,000 per 12-month period.
• Trip interruption: Up to $10,000 per trip. Maximum benefit of $20,000 per 12-month period.
• Baggage delay: Up to $100 per day for five days.
• Lost luggage: Up to $3,000 per passenger.
Learn more
To view rates and fees of The Platinum Card® from American Express, see this page.
In regards to your recent “When to Take Social Security” article, you left something out. You can take Social Security early (say, age 62), then invest that money, and your investment will end up better than if you had waited on Social Security until age 67 or age 70.
Interesting! But does the math work? Let’s dive in. Should you take Social Security early and invest it?
What Kind of “Returns” Do You Get For Waiting on Social Security?
Let’s start by looking at Social Security. What kind of “return on investment” do you receive by delaying your Social Security decision?
There’s no easy way to do this today without a spreadsheet, so we will use this Google Sheet to show you some math. (I keep the original file pristine so all readers see the same numbers, but you can go to File –> Make a Copy to create your own copy of the file to play around with.)
For starters, we need to understand how retirees’ benefits change as they age. Depending on their birth year, today’s retirees reach their “Full Retirement Age” (FRA) at 66 or 67 years old. Depending on the age at which they apply for Social Security, they’ll receive a certain percentage of their full benefits, described in the table below.
To make the math easy, we will assume our retiree’s Primary Insurance Amount (PIA)…aka the amount you receive if you wait until FRA…is $1000 per month. So “100%” on the table above equals $1000 per mont
The longer our retiree waits, the higher their monthly payments will be. But what does that look like as an “investment?” And how does inflation factor in?
What About Inflation?
The Social Security Administration adjusts everybody’s Social Security payments yearly to account for inflation. This “cost of living adjustment” is often shortened to “COLA.”
The average COLA adjustment since 1975 has been 3.66%. We need to include that in our spreadsheet too.
Baseline Analysis – No Investments Yet
Let’s start with a baseline analysis. We’ll examine a series of retirees who collect their Social Security monthly, and immediately spend it. They make no investments with their Social Security cash flow. We could conceptualize this as hiding those dollars underneath their mattresses.
We’ll compare results by looking at the total dollar amounts collected over time. This will be our baseline analysis. You can follow along on the spreadsheet tab labeled “No Investment Return (Yet) – Nominal Dollars Only”
The results: in this scenario, early collection only makes sense for a retiree who dies before age 74. This should make sense. We know that delaying Social Security makes more and more sense the longer someone lives.
Let’s add in investment returns.
Analysis 1: Investing in a 4.7% Savings Account
Let’s consider a retiree who takes all of their Social Security income and deposits it into a savings account bearing 4.7% annual interest.
Why 4.7%? That’s the average overnight Federal Funds rate since 1960, and modern-day high-yield savings accounts tend to offer interest rates that are closely correlated to the Fed Funds rate.
Note: if your personal pile of cash isn’t in a high-yield savings account, you should ask yourself why that is…
The results: if you pass away at age 77 or earlier, collecting earlier makes sense. Otherwise, waiting until FRA or later likely makes sense. This is no different than “traditional” Social Security advice.
Analysis 2: Investing in a “Standard” 60/40 Portfolio
What if our retirees put their money in a tried-and-true 60/40 portfolio?
From 1950 until today, that kind of diversified 60/40 portfolio has returned an average of 9.3% per year.
The results: Whoa! As shown on the “A2” tab, collecting as early as possible makes sense for anyone who would pass away before age 88.
We know, on average, most 62 years olds are going to pass away well before age 88. The smart, probabilistic thing to do then, is collect Social Security as early as possible and invest it in something like a 60/40 portfolio (or, something with greater returns).
But wait…because I’ve only showed you half the story. And that’s a major problem.
Big Problem: What’s the Risk?
If we zoom out on reader DT’s idea as originally stated, we should confidently conclude: OF COURSE it makes sense! If you have sufficiently high investment returns, you should always start as early as possible.
Even if the benefit of delaying Social Security was 20% per year, but I had an investment that paid me 40% per year, I’d rather start collecting as soon as possible and get the money invested. Given sufficiently high returns, you always want to get the compound growth started.
But we must return, once again, to a foundational pillar of investing and oft-repeated maxim of The Best Interest: Risk and return are intrinsically connected.Returns are not “free.” They are compensation for taking on investment risk.
Whenever an investor compares returns alone, without also comparing the risks involved, they’re making an incomplete analysis. DT’s original question only considers return. It doesn’t consider risk.
What Comparison Makes Sense?
The benefits of delaying Social Security are guaranteed by the U.S. government. That’s very low risk. What kind of investment risk should we compare that to?
I see two viable options.
First, why does Warren Buffett invest all of Berkshire Hathaway’s extra cash into U.S. Treasuries, instead of an S&P 500 index fund? Doesn’t he know the S&P 500 has much better long-term returns?!
Answer: U.S. Treasuries are as risk-free as anything in the investing universe, backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. As long as Uncle Sam pays debts, U.S. treasuries are risk-free. The S&P 500 is far from risk-free, and Buffett knows it. He wants his cash to be safe and ready for deployment at a moment’s notice. The S&P 500 cannot fulfill that need.
The first logical comparison today, then, is to use a true “risk-free” rate as our investment return. Something like a high-yield bank account (FDIC insured) or short-term U.S. Treasury is appropriate. Conveniently, we already did that in Analysis #1, where our conclusion is no different than traditional Social Security advice: the “break even” point occurs in the late 70s.
Note: this is reason for the concept of “risk-adjusted returns.”To compare only the returns of two investments is not an apples-to-apples comparison.
The second option is to show the downsides of Analysis #2. That is, to show how 9.3% per year from a 60/40 portfolio is far from a guarantee. More specifically, I’d like to show how the downside risk of a 60/40 portfolio could turn our result on its head. What happens if we suffer some bad markets during our early Social Security period?
Looking at historical returns, a 60/40 portfolio has had 10-year periods with returns below 2% per year. What if we started our Social Security timeline with that kind of low return, and then made up for it at the end of the analysis? That’s what I show on our spreadsheet on the A3 tab.
The results? The 60/40 “solution” comes with risks! In this scenario, “taking Social Security early and investing it” only worked out if our retiree died before age 75. That’s not a good outcome. Doubly so if Social Security is a safety net or backstop in your financial plan.
To Apply or Not Apply
If your Social Security is “play money” in your financial plan, and you’re ok with risking a loss, then I can see the merit and appeal of DT’s proposal. You can apply for Social Security early, invest it (reasonably), and the odds are in your favor that you’ll end up in a good spot.
But it’s no guarantee.
And the entire point of the Social Security system is to provide a guaranteed benefit to retirees. If Social Security plays even a minor role in your financial plan, I would strongly discourage putting that money at investment risk to eek out extra returns.
When we make a level comparison by using a risk-free rate, like in Analysis #1, we see there is no net benefit to taking Social Security early to invest it.
Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join 8000+ subscribers who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week.
-Jesse
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Thanks to reader Lynn, who wrote in this week with some specifics about her household’s situation and an overarching question: When should we start taking Social Security?
I’ll provide background information below, and then we’ll discuss a few common “if –> then” heuristics to help you with your Social Security planning.
Background – The Pros and Cons of Taking Social Security Early
Social Security is a government program that provides financial support to individuals who are retired, disabled, or survivors of deceased workers, funded primarily through payroll taxes. It aims to ensure economic stability and security for eligible participants by offering benefits to mitigate income loss due to retirement, disability, or death.
Today, we’re talking about retirees.
American retirees each have an “eligible benefit” from Social Security, which is based on the following factors.
They must be 62 years old or older
They’ve worked and paid into Social Security for at least 10 years (measured quarterly, for a total of 40 or more quarterly credits)
They could be eligible for additional credits based on their spouse’s work history, too.
Your eligible benefit is determined by your highest 35 years of earnings, with each year’s earnings adjusted for inflation (aka “indexed”). The higher your overall earnings, the greater your Social Security benefit will be.
Quick Example: AIME and PIA
Here’s a quick example:
Bob worked the same job from age 22 to age 62. His salary in 1984 was $25,000, and he’s received a 4% raise every year since; he’s earning $120,000 now in 2024 (his final working year).
We’d use the Social Security indexing factors to adjust each of his prior years’ earnings by rates of inflation. We’d then pick the highest 35 years, find the average, and divide by 12 to get Bob’s average indexed monthly earnings, or AIME.
Bob’s AIME is $8717. Here’s the Google sheet with the math. Feel free to make a copy.
Note 1: because only a certain percentage of income is subject to Social Security taxes, only that portion of earnings is considered for AIME. In 2024, the FICA income limit is $168,800. Even if someone earned millions every year for their entire career, their AIME would only include that smaller portion of income that was taxed by FICA. That logic is why the maximum AIME in 2024 is ~$13,100.
Note 2: if you don’t work a full 35 years, you’ll have some “zeroes” in your AIME math. This isn’t ideal. But depending on the rest of your work history, these zeroes could have a major effect or a minor effect. The PIA section below will shed more light.
Next comes PIA, or the Primary Insurance Amounts, aka what you actually receive from Social Security if you retire at “full retirement age,” or FRA. PIA is the real deal. An individual’s Social Security benefits (or PIA) are based on specific percentages of that individual’s AIME. For 2024, the PIA math is:
Take 90% of AIME below $1174
Plus 32% of AIME between $1174 and $7078
Plus 15% of AIME above $7078
If we run that math for Bob, whose AIME was $8717…
90% of his first $1174 = $1056.60
plus 32% of ($7078 – $1174) = $1889.28
plus 15% of ($8717 – $7078) = $245.85
For a grand total PIA of $3191.73per month.
You see – not all your AIME dollars count the same! The first dollars matter a lot – they’re counted at 90%! The latter dollars are only counted at 15%. And since high-earners’ latter dollars aren’t factored into AIME at all, we can think of those dollars as being counted at 0%. This concept is dubbed the “Social Security bends” or “bend points” because of how it looks when graphed out.
If you have a “zero year” in your 35 years of earnings, your AIME will certainly decrease. But if you’re already in the 0% or 15% section of the PIA graph, it might have only a tiny effect on your PIA. It’ll have a huge effect if you’re in the 90% section.
Bob had his final ~$1700 of AIME in the 15% section of the PIA graph. I ran a quick test and turned his 35th year into a zero. His AIME dropped from $8717 to $8487 – a $230 drop. His PIA dropped from $3192 per month to $3157 – a $35 drop. $35, you might guess, is 15% of $230.
PIA is Bob’s benefit if collects at “full retirement age.” But what if he collects early?
What About the Age You Start Collecting?
Social Security uses a concept called “full retirement age” (FRA) to determine how much of your eligible benefit you get to collect. Your personal FRA depends on the year you were born. The chart below shows the details:
FRA is either 66 or 67 years old for today’s new retirees. You can start collecting Social Security benefits before your FRA, but there’s a price to pay. Your benefits will be permanently reduced. But by postponing your benefits until after your FRA, your benefits will be permanently increased. The two charts below show both sides of that coin for both age 67 FRA retirees and age 66 FRA retirees.
Let’s do a quick decoder to make sure you understand how this all fits together.
If Bob was born in 1962 (and therefore is 62 years old today), he could start collecting Social Security right now. His FRA (based on his birth year) is 67, so we’ll consult the blue section of the table above. By collecting at age 62, Bob will only receive 70% of his full benefit. His PIA was $3192 per month; Bob would only collect 70% of that, or $2234 per month.
If Bob waits to collect, a few things will happen.
First, the AIME math and the PIA bends will likely change to account for inflation and other factors. On net, this will increase Bob’s PIA.
Second, Bob’s postponed filing age will increase his benefit amount, per the blue table above. If Bob waits until age 70, he’ll receive 124% of his PIA.
This begs a question: should Bob collect early to get those extra years of income, though at a discounted benefit? Or collect later, for fewer years, but at a much higher rate? When is the breakeven point?
The Breakeven Point for Collecting Social Security
When is the breakeven point for collecting Social Security? I looked at retirees with FRA = 67 years old. Here’s my Google sheet if you want to play around with it yourself.
With the bare eye, you can see the breakevens occur in the upper 70s. The joke in financial planning is, “Tell me when you’ll die, and I’ll tell you when to start collecting Social Security.” But the rough outline is:
If you die before age 77, collecting as early as possible would have been best.
If you die between ages 78-80, then all scenarios are roughly equal (all within ~6% of one another)
If you die after age 80, then waiting until at least “full retirement age” of 67 has distinct advantages
If you die after age 84, then waiting until the maximum collection age of 70 becomes optimal, and it only gets better the longer you live.
But there’s much more to consider than “how long will you live?”
So let’s get to the real meat of the article: what are some applicable thought processes, strategies, and if –> then scenarios to guide you and your family in Social Security decisions?
This is Hard to Get Right
As Annie Duke says (and I love to repeat), two things determine outcomes in our life:
the quality of our decisions, and
luck.
Or, put another way, there are things in your control and things out of your control.
Whatever decision you make regarding Social Security, you must accept that luck might strike, and your decision won’t have been the optimum one. It’s not because of the quality of your decisions. It’s because of luck. (This is “results-oriented thinking,” a bias worth breaking.)
You Want to Get This Right
This is close to a one-way gate.
Once you start collecting Social Security, you do have up to 12 months to 1) change your mind and 2) repay any benefits you’ve received so far. You get one of these “withdrawals” in your lifetime.
Once you delay collecting, though, you can’t go back in time and reclaim those missed benefits.
Ideally, you want to get this decision right.
Health, Illness, Family History, and Social Security
The most common questions surrounding Social Security revolve around your personal health and family history. We’ve determined that ages in the late 70s to early 80s are the “break even” point. You should ask: does anything in your personal or family history point you toward an early or late death?
If you’re healthy and all your relatives live to 100, it’s reasonable to assume you could have a similar fate. Postponing Social Security as long as possible (age 70) makes sense.
If you’re chronically ill, your relatives have all passed away early, etc., again, you can reasonably assume you could have a similar fate. Collecting Social Security as early as possible would make sense.
Granted, I’m not a doctor. One health phrase worth remembering is, “Genetics loads the gun, environment pulls the trigger.” In other words, you aren’t condemned to your family history. You have dials to control. Don’t forget that.
Do You Need It? It’s Longevity Insurance.
Do you need to take Social Security early? Will that extra income bridge the gap between cat food and a normal human diet? Because if you don’t need Social Security, why take it early?
Delaying your Social Security will act as “longevity insurance,” protecting against the risk that you will live to 90, 95, or beyond. The longer you wait, the higher your benefit will be, and the better your long-term outcomes will be.
Are You Still Planning to Work?
Are you planning to work while also collecting Social Security? Tread carefully! Your work income will actively eat away at your Social Security benefits.
Bob, for example, who is age 62, can only earn $22,320 in ordinary income before he hits trouble. For every $2.00 he earns above that limit, $1.00 will be deducted from his annual Social Security benefit. If Bob earns $125,000 (like he did last year) while also collecting Social Security at age 62, he effectively receives $0.00 in Social Security benefits while being permanently hamstrung by his choice to collect early. Ouch.
“He collects no Social Security because of this one stupid trick.”
That specific income limit increases to $59,520 during the year someone reaches their FRA, and the penalty ratio “lessens” to 3-to-1. The penalty disappears altogether once the FRA has been reached.
There’s always a corner case, so making a concrete rule about working while collecting is hard. That said, it’s like going into credit card debt. You really want to avoid it if you can. You really want to avoid starting Social Security benefits before full retirement age if you plan on working.
Consider Spousal Benefits
Spousal benefits are one of the many rabbit holes in Social Security planning. There are many paths, they go deep, and it’s easy to get lost. Trust me, Alice.
The upshot for basic Social Security planning is that your decision to collect Social Security not only affects you, but could affect your current spouse, your ex-spouse, and/or your future spouse or future widow.
Remember Bob? His PIA is $3192 per month. Bob is married to Sharon. Her PIA is $1200 per month. Let’s say they both opt to start collecting at FRA, and thus collect exactly 100% of their PIA each.
Sharon also gets to collect a spousal benefit. If she applies for a spousal benefit when she hits her FRA, she is eligible for 50% of Bob’s PIA (or $1596 per month). She’ll collect her $1200 benefit and then an additional $396 per month.
But if Sharon had applied for the spousal benefit at age 62, she’d only be eligible for ~35% of Bob’s PIA, or $1117 per month. Since this number is lower than her own benefit of $1200, Sharon will get no extra spousal benefit.
Now, what if Bob dies?
Notably, Sharon would step into Bob’s benefit, receiving the full $3192 per month!
If Bob had started collecting at age 62, though, his benefit would have been $2234 per month. Sharon would step into that $2234 per month benefit when he died.
If Bob had started collecting at age 70, his benefit would be $3958 per month. Sharon would step into that $3958 per month benefit when he died.
Bob’s decision doesn’t only affect his benefits. It also affects Sharon, assuming she outlives him.
Some rules of thumb when it comes to spousal benefits:
The lesser-earning spouse can start collecting Social Security as early as possible, especially if they’ll become eligible for a larger spousal benefit at FRA (e.g. just like Sharon, who jumped from her own benefit up to the spousal benefit of $1596)
The higher-earning spouse should delay Social Security to age 70 because their decision not only has a 100% chance of affecting their own benefit but also has a ~50% chance of affecting their spouse’s eventual benefit (if we assume the “who dies first?” question is a coin flip).
What About the Overall Financial Plan, and Sequence of Returns Risk?
How does Social Security fit into your total financial plan? Especially in the early years of retirement, where you’re most at risk for a sequence of returns disaster?
“Sequence of returns risk” refers to the potential that a poor-performing portfolio early in your retirement will cascade into long-term pain. If your assets are worth less early on, you’ll be forced to sell more of them than you anticipated. This leaves fewer assets in your portfolio to grow for the long run.
One way to mitigate this risk is to find alternate sources of retirement income. Social Security, perhaps?! If early Social Security is a vital part of your overall plan’s success, the failure risk introduced from delaying Social Security could be too great to bear.
Taxability Concerns
Social Security is taxable (for many retirees). It’s worth considering if your decision to collect Social Security will have taxation impacts and what your net-of-tax benefits are.
What Do Your Trusted Advisors Have to Say?
While every retirement is a unique adventure, these adventures often rhyme. Your trusted advisor(s) might have seen dozens or hundreds of successful retirements before, all of which rhyme with your plan.
Their counsel might sway you in an optimal direction.
“I’m Ready Uncle Sam!”
Are you ready for Social Security? It’s not an easy question to answer.
Hopefully, I’ve answered more questions today than created new ones. Still, don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions or concerns.
Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join 8000+ subscribers who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week.
-Jesse
Want to learn more about The Best Interest’s back story? Read here.
Looking for a great personal finance book, podcast, or other recommendation? Check out my favorites.
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