Favorable economic trends are helping mortgage rates continue the downward trend they’ve been on for the past few months.
HousingWire‘s Mortgage Rates Center showed that the average 30-year conforming loan rate was 7.06% on Tuesday, down from 7.11% a week earlier. The 15-year conforming loan rate showed an even larger pullback, declining from 6.90% to 6.79% during the week.
That data comes on the heels of cooling inflation numbers. Last week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices for goods and services declined by 0.1% from May to June. They rose 3% on an annualized basis, the slowest rate of growth in more than three years.
More good news for the housing and mortgage industries arrived Monday through remarks delivered by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. At an event in Washington, D.C., Powell indicated that policymakers would not wait for inflation to reach 2% before making cuts to benchmark rates. The federal funds rate has been in a target range of 5.25% to 5.5% since July 2023.
“The implication of that is that if you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you’ve probably waited too long, because the tightening that you’re doing, or the level of tightness that you have, is still having effects which will probably drive inflation below 2%,” Powell said, according to reporting by CNBC.
According to the CME Group‘s FedWatch tool, analysts believe there is a 93% chance that rates will remain unchanged after the Fed’s meeting at the end of July. But 100% of analysts have penciled in a cut in September.
HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami believes that mortgage rates could fall to 6% if the 10-year Treasury yield continues to recede. The spread between the 10-year yield and the 30-year rate narrowed to 2.62% last week, down from a recent peak of 3.1% in June 2023.
Mohtashami said that mortgage rates would be 0.48% higher today if the highest levels of spreads from last year were incorporated today. The shrinking spreads are correlating with a rise in purchase mortgage applications.
“The last time we saw 12 weeks of positive trending purchase app growth was when mortgage rates reached 6%,“ Mohtashami wrote Saturday. “Purchase apps have been positive for four out of the last five weeks and mortgage rates aren’t even near 6%. Now, context is critical because we are working from the lowest bar ever, so it doesn’t take much to move the needle higher with purchase apps, as the last five weeks have shown.“
With mortgage rates stubbornly remaining above 7% for all of 2024, home-price growth has cooled and supply has increased in many areas of the country.
According to data released Tuesday by First American, U.S. home prices grew by 5.6% year over year in June. It marked the sixth straight month that the annualized appreciation rate has slowed.
Anaheim, California, led the way among the metro areas analyzed by First American with 10.2% price growth compared to June 2023. Miami (8.9%), Pittsburgh (6.5%), Las Vegas (6.4%) and San Diego (6.2%) each exceeded the national average rate of appreciation.
“Elevated mortgage rates continue to keep homeowners rate locked-in, while reducing affordability for potential first-time home buyers,” Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American, said in a statement. “The resulting pullback in demand coincided with an uptick in supply, which is cooling price growth. However, housing remains fundamentally undersupplied nationally, which will keep a floor on how low house price appreciation can fall.”
Data from Altos Research shows that the supply of single-family homes for sale shrank slightly last week to 651,000. That figure is up 38.5% year over year but is still 32% below the pre-pandemic figure of July 2019. Altos also noted that the share of listings with a price cut has grown to 38.3%.
“If we get lucky and mortgage rates ease from here on out for the rest of the year, then one place we’ll measure a rebound in demand will be fewer price cuts,“ Mike Simonsen, president of Altos Research, wrote on Monday. “When you list your home, if you don’t get the offers, you cut your price. But when a few more offers are made by newly affordably mortgages for buyers, then this stat will plateau and even tick down.“
June’s housing market data shows a mixed bag for prospective homebuyers as prices hit a new all-time high but monthly mortgage payments decreased, a report from Redfin said.
U.S. house values reached a peak in June with the median home sale price coming in at $397,954, the biggest increase since March. This led to a 5% decline in pending sales, the real estate brokerage reported.
With the new record, affordability is even more out of reach for many potential homeowners. The affordability crunch is unlikely to change by the end of 2024, according to First American Data & Analytics’ Real Home Price Index.
“Unfortunately, inflation has proven stubborn and led to the Federal Reserve’s ‘higher-for-longer’ stance on interest rates, contributing to an elevated outlook for mortgage rates, while house prices have once again demonstrated their ‘downside stickiness,'” said chief economist Mark Fleming at First American Financial, First American Data & Analytics’ parent company.
Redfin found that June’s pending home sales posted their biggest decline since February, as the median sale price rose 5% from last year.
The good news for prospective homeowners, however, is that more new listings are on the market for them to choose from, Redfin reported. Also, monthly housing payments decreased by nearly $100 from their peak in April.
New listings jumped 10% in June, the biggest increase seen in two months. Over 100,000 new listings landed on the market, a 9.9% increase year-over-year.
As of July 2, the daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sat at 7.13%. The latest metric is up from a three-month low of 6.97% that was seen three weeks earlier. Fortunately, the current number is still a ways away from a five-month high of 7.52% in early May.
“While affordability is likely to remain constrained for the remainder of 2024, mortgage rates are expected to come down in 2025, which would be welcome news for potential home buyers,” Fleming continued.
Housing affordability dipped in March on both a monthly and yearly basis, according to a new report by First American.
Affordability fell by 0.1% compared with February, according to the First American Real House Price Index (RHPI). On an annualized basis, affordability fell by approximately 5%. Meanwhile, mortgage rates also rose over the course of the month.
The RHPI measures the price changes of single-family properties throughout the U.S., adjusted for the impact of income and interest rate changes on consumer homebuying power over time at the national, state and metro-area levels.
“Two factors drove the year-over-year decline in affordability – a 6.2% annual increase in nominal house prices, and a 0.3 percentage point increase in the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate compared with one year ago,” Mark Fleming, First American chief economist, said in a statement.
“For home buyers, holding prices constant, the only way to mitigate the loss of affordability caused by higher mortgage rates is with an equivalent, if not greater, increase in household income,” Fleming said. “Even though household income increased 3.7% since March 2023 and boosted consumer house-buying power, it was not enough to offset the affordability loss from higher mortgage rates and rising nominal prices.”
Consumer homebuying power, which represents how much one can buy based on changes in income and mortgage rates, decreased 0.1% between February and March 2024 but increased 0.8% year over year. The median household income has increased 3.7% since March 2023 and 90.2% since January 2000.
West Virginia, New Mexico, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Indiana posted the largest year-over-year increases in the RHPI. Meanwhile, Washington, D.C., and Colorado posted year-over-year decreases.
Among the metros tracked by First American, Memphis, Tennessee; Boston; Providence, Rhode Island; Buffalo, New York; and Cincinnati posted the highest year-over-year gains in the RHPI. Meanwhile, Denver and Portland, Oregon, posted year-over-year losses.
In March, the housing market was almost overvalued at a national level, but a surprisingly large number of markets remain significantly undervalued, according to First American.
Among the top 50 markets tracked, 22 were overvalued in March, meaning that the median existing-home sale price exceeded home purchasing power.
The market with the highest overvaluation was San Jose. There, the median consumer home purchasing power in March was $723,000, significantly below the median sale price of $1,430,000.
“In markets considered overvalued, the chronic housing supply shortage is preventing prices from adjusting downward enough to reflect the affordability reality,” Fleming said. “Additionally, house prices are ‘downside sticky.’ Home sellers would rather withdraw from the market than sell at lower prices.”
“The good news is that most of the markets we track remain undervalued by this measure, and nine markets were undervalued by $100,000 or more,” Fleming added. “Detroit, Philadelphia, and Cleveland are markets considered undervalued by an average of $145,000.”
Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or evaluations.
As we head into peak home-buying season, signs of life have begun to spring up in the housing market.
Even so, still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continue to put homeownership out of reach for many.
Moreover, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a monumental $418 million settlement on March 15 following a verdict favoring home sellers in a class action lawsuit. Still subject to court approval, the settlement requires changes to broker commissions that will upend the buying and selling model that has been in place for years.
Housing Market Forecast for 2024
Elevated mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and record-low housing stock are the perennial weeds that experts say hopeful home buyers can expect to contend with this spring—and beyond.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, in an emailed statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast.”
Despite ongoing affordability hurdles, Fannie Mae forecasts an increase in home sales transactions compared to last year. Experts also anticipate a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply.
U.S. home prices declined in January for the third consecutive month due to high borrowing costs, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But prices year-over-year jumped 6%—the fastest annual rate since 2022.
Chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming predicts a “flat stretch” ahead.
“If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which experts say is imminent despite rates edging back up toward 7%. For the week ending April 11, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.88%, according to Freddie Mac.
However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
NAR Settlement Rocks the Residential Real Estate Industry
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers.
The plaintiffs claimed that the leading national trade association for real estate brokers and agents “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
Though the landmark settlement is subject to court approval, most consider it a done deal.
The settlement requires NAR to enact new rules, including prohibiting offers of broker compensation on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings. The rule is set to take effect in mid-July, once the settlement receives judge approval.
Moreover, sellers will no longer be required to pay buyer broker commissions and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with their buyer clients.
NAR denies any wrongdoing and maintains that its current policies benefit buyers and sellers. The organization believes it’s not liable for seller claims related to broker commissions, stating that it has never set commissions and that commissions have always been negotiable.
How Will the New Rules Impact the Buying and Selling Process?
Per the settlement’s terms, the costs associated with buying and selling a home are set to change dramatically.
“The primary things that will change are the decoupling of the seller commission and the buyer commission in the MLS,” says Rita Gibbs, a Realtor at Realty One Group Integrity in Tucson. “It’s gonna cause some chaos.”
While sellers will no longer be able to offer broker compensation in the MLS, there’s no rule prohibiting off-MLS negotiations. Because of this, Gibbs suspects buyers and sellers will continue offering broker compensation off the MLS.
The Department of Justice confirmed it will permit listing brokers to display compensation details on their websites. However, buyer agents will need to undergo the tedious task of visiting countless broker websites to find who’s offering what.
Michael Gorkowski, a Virginia-based real estate agent with Compass, is also trying to figure out how to manage the potential ruling.
“We often work with buyers for many months and sometimes years before they find exactly what they’re looking for,” Gorkowski says. “So in a case where a seller isn’t offering a co-broker commission, we will have to negotiate that the buyer pays an agreed-upon commission prior to starting their search.”
The Changes Will Impact These Home Buyers Most
“In the short term, it is absolutely going to injure buyers, especially FHA and VA buyers,” Gibbs says. “With rare exception, these buyers are not in a position to pay for their own agent.”
Gibbs says that if sellers don’t offer compensation, many buyers who can’t otherwise afford to pay a broker will choose to go unrepresented.
Gorkowski notes that veterans taking out VA loans face a unique challenge under the new rules. “[P]er the VA requirements, buyers cannot pay so it must be negotiated with the seller for now.”
As a result, NAR is calling on the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to revise its policies prohibiting VA buyers from paying broker commissions. Even so, there’s skepticism that the federal government will be able to implement changes in time for the July deadline.
Gibbs and Gorkowski are among the many agents especially concerned about first-time home buyers. After July, first-time and VA buyers will be required to sign a buyer-broker agreement stating that they will compensate their broker—but Gibbs says many won’t have the means to do so.
In this situation, agents would likely only show buyers homes where sellers are offering compensation.
“This is a very troubling situation,” Gorkowski says.
Housing Inventory Forecast for 2024
With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices. Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Yet, some hopeful housing stock signs have begun to sprout:
Existing inventory is showing signs of loosening as impatient buyers and sellers have begun to accept the reality of mortgage rates oscillating between 6% and 7%.
Home-builder outlook also continues to get sunnier, trending back up amid declining mortgage rates and better building conditions.
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, surpassing a crucial threshold with an increase from 48 to 51 in March. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits ticked up 1% in February—the 13th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales
Though some housing market data indicates signs of growth are in store this spring home-buying season, persistently high mortgage rates may hinder activity from fully flourishing.
Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales came to life in February, shooting up 9.5% from the month before, according to the latest data from the NAR. Sales dipped 3.3% from a year ago.
Experts attribute the monthly jump to a bump in inventory.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report.
Existing inventory rose 5.9%—logging 1.07 million unsold homes at the end of February. However, there are still only 2.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market falling between four and six months.
Meanwhile, existing home prices continue to soar to unprecedented heights, reaching $384,500, which marks the eighth consecutive month of yearly price increases and a February median home price record.
New Home Sales
Sales of newly constructed single-family houses ticked down by a nominal 0.3% compared to January, but outpaced February 2023 sales by 5.9%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
Amid a high percentage of homeowners still locked in to low mortgage rates, home builders have been picking up the slack.
“New construction continues to be an outsized share of the housing inventory,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in an emailed statement.
Sturtevant notes that declining new home prices are coming amid a recent trend of builders introducing smaller and more affordable homes to the market.
The median price for a new home in February was $400,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Pending Home Sales
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index rose 1.6% in February from the month prior even as mortgage rates approached 7% by the end of the month. Pending transactions declined 7% year-over-year.
A pending home sale marks the point in the home sales transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator of future closed sales.
The Midwest and South saw monthly transaction gains while the Northeast and West saw declines due to affordability challenges in those higher-cost regions.
“While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said Yun, in the report.
Ongoing Affordability Challenges Could Throw Cold Water on Spring Home-Buying Hopes
Though down from its 2023 high of 7.79%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2024 remains well over 6% amid rising home values. As a result, home buyers continue to face affordability challenges.
According to data from its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report, property data provider Attom found that median-priced single-family homes remain less affordable than the historical average in over 95% of U.S. counties.
For one, the data uncovered that expenses are eating up more than 32% of the average national wage. Common lending guidelines require monthly mortgage payments, property taxes and homeowners insurance to comprise 28% or less of your gross income.
At the same time, home prices and homeownership expenses continue to outpace wage growth.
Consequently, the latest expense-to-wage ratio is hovering at one of the highest points over the past decade, according to the Attom report, despite some slight affordability improvements over the last two quarters.
“Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom.
Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.
Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
Will Foreclosures Increase in 2024?
In February, total foreclosure filings were down 1% from the previous month but up 8% from a year ago, according to Attom.
“These trends could signify evolving financial landscapes for homeowners, prompting adjustments in market strategies and lending practices,” said Barber, in a report.
Lenders began foreclosure on 22,575 properties in February, up 4% from the previous month and 11% from a year ago. Meanwhile, real estate-owned properties, or REOs, which are homes unsold at foreclosure auctions and taken over by lenders, spiked year-over-year in three states: South Carolina (up 51%), Missouri (up 50%) and Pennsylvania (up 46%).
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally and certain areas of the country seeing notable annual increases in REOs, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low unemployment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth in homeowner equity over the past few years has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Will declining mortgage rates cause home prices to rise?
Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.
What will happen if the housing market crashes?
Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.
Is it smart to buy real estate before a recession?
If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.
NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun said in remarks accompanying the release that high mortgage costs were the main barrier to homebuying intentions in the present market. “This combination of economic conditions is favorable for homebuying,” Yan said. “However, consumers are showing extra sensitivity to changes in mortgage rates in the currently cycle, and that’s impacting … [Read more…]
Existing home sales have declined approximately 30% since mortgage rates started rising in the fall of 2021, according to First American’s Potential Home Sales Model for June 2023. But home sales may have now reached their bottom and are ready to settle at a new normal somewhere between the breakneck pace of 2020 and 2021 and the low pace of earlier this year, according to Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American.
First American’s model measures what a healthy market level of home sales should be, based on economic, demographic and housing market fundamentals.
In June, potential existing-home sales decreased to a 5.31 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), a 0.23% month-over-month decrease. The market potential for existing-home sales decreased 2.8% compared with a year ago, a loss of 152,400 (SAAR) sales.
The current housing market is unique because more than 90% of homeowners in the U.S. have locked in a mortgage rate below 6%, noted Fleming.
“As mortgage rates return to a not-so-new-normal of over 6%, those homeowners have a financial disincentive from selling, keeping a lid on the primary source of housing supply, and you can’t buy what’s not for sale,” Fleming said.
“The good news is that home sales have likely already bottomed, and the pace of sales will begin to settle into a new normal below the breakneck pace of 2020 and 2021, but also not as low as earlier this year. The hope is that affordability will improve in the second half of 2023, so that the pace of sales can be not too hot, not too cold, but just right.”
First American said its potential home sales model measures existing-homes sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate based on the historical relationship between existing-home sales and U.S. population demographic data, homeowner tenure, house-buying power in the U.S. economy, price trends in the U.S. housing market and conditions in the financial market.
However, affordability issues persisted as house-buying power remained heavily dependent on the changes in mortgage rates, according to First American chief economist Mark Fleming. “While household income increased by 0.4%, it was not enough to offset the affordability-dampening impact from higher mortgage rates and prices,” Fleming said. “Consumer house-buying power declined by nearly $9,000 compared … [Read more…]
In a new report from First American, Chief Economist Mark Fleming reveals that two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), nominal house prices and mortgage rates, dragged affordability lower in June. The 30-year, fixed mortgage rate increased by 0.3 percentage points and nominal house prices accelerated by 0.8% compared with May.
The Three Key Drivers of the RHPI:
Median Household Income is one of the fundamental factors determining the amount of housing a particular consumer can afford. incomes can be tracked over time to demonstrate how rising/falling incomes impact consumer house-buying power.
Interest rates drive how much a home buyer can leverage their median household income to purchase more or less housing. As interest rates fall, consumers are able to purchase a more expensive house due to lower borrowing costs. The opposite is true for rising rates.
House price levels are measured using a weighted repeat-sales house price index that tracks how prices of single-family residential properties rise and fall over time and across numerous geographies.
While household income increased by 0.4%, it was not enough to offset the affordability-dampening impact from higher mortgage rates and prices. Consumer house-buying power declined by nearly $9,000 compared with May and remains $32,000 lower than one year ago. Fleming predicts the outlook for house-buying power to be heavily dependent on the path for mortgage rates, and that path is highly uncertain.
“It’s likely that mortgage rates continue to hover in the 6.5-to-7.5% range for the remainder of the year, which means affordability will remain a challenge for many homebuyers,” said Fleming.
How High Will Mortgage Rates Go?
The RHPI can be referenced to model shifts in income and mortgage rates to see how they impact consumer house-buying power or affordability. Rising incomes and falling mortgage rates each boost house-buying power, while falling incomes and rising mortgage rates each sap house-buying power.
As of mid-August, the average mortgage rate nationally sits at approximately 7%. In June of last year, the average mortgage rate nationally was roughly 5.5%. Holding incomes constant at their June 2023 level and assuming a 5% down payment, the increase in mortgage rates alone reduced house-buying power by nearly $57,000.
An average of several industry forecasts projects that mortgage rates will end the year lower, at 6.1%. If those forecasts are correct and the average mortgage rate decreases from the 7% level to 6.1%, house-buying power increases by nearly $32,000. However, if mortgage rates drifted upward to 7.5%, house-buying power would fall by an estimated $16,000.
Uncertain Outlook for Mortgage Rates
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is loosely benchmarked to the 10-year Treasury bond. Since the end of the Great Recession, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has on average remained 1.7 percentage points (170 basis points) higher than the 10-year Treasury bond yield. The spread usually widens during periods of economic or geopolitical uncertainty, as is the case in today’s market.
As the industry forecasts predict, it’s reasonable to assume that the spread and, therefore, mortgage rates will moderate later in the year if the Federal Reserve stops further monetary tightening and provides investors with more certainty. However, it’s unlikely that mortgage rates will revert to the 5.5% levels of 2022 until inflation has moved closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and it begins loosening monetary policy, or there’s a significant economic downturn.
U.S. Census Bureau data published this week shows that the homeownership rate fell slightly to 64.1%, despite the fact that the number of new households is rising. That’s because most new household formations come from rentals, the number of which was larger than the amount of new homeowners for the first time since 2016.
“The housing shortage, especially at the level of moderately priced homes, has prevented financially capable renters from owning,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, said in a statement about the latest homeownership rate numbers. “More home construction is needed to relieve the housing shortage and allow more Americans to participate in the wealth gains associated with ownership.”
Mark Fleming, chief economist of First American, said in another report this month that the homeownership rate is below what it should be at present. In 2018, he said the homeownership rate was underperforming potential demand by 8.7%, mainly due to the lifestyle choices of young adults.
The problem is that millennials are trailing previous generations when it comes to homeownership. Many are choosing to delay getting married and having kids, which are often the main triggers for buying a home. As such, Fleming said there’s a six percentage point difference between millennials and members of Generation X at 30-years old.
“But the bulk of millennials have yet to turn 30, which signals higher potential homeownership demand may be on the horizon,” he said.
The largest number of millennials by birth year will turn 30 in 2020, which is the prime age for buying a home, Fleming said. Even better, many are well prepared to make the step up to homeownership, he added. For example, millennials are the most educated generation, and have the highest incomes compared to older generations at the same age. The inflation-adjusted income for 37 year old millennials is $77,000, compared to $72,000 for Generation X and $69,000 for baby boomers.
As such, Fleming believes the homeownership rate could well grow in the coming years.
“Higher income leads to higher house-buying power,” Fleming said. “Coupled with today’s 3.8 percent 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, 37-year-old millennials can afford $35,000 more home than Generation X and $52,000 more home than baby boomers at the same age. We expect the homeownership rate to further close the gap with potential in the years ahead as millennials continue to make important decisions, such as attaining an education and, later in life, getting married and having children.”
Mike Wheatley is the senior editor at Realty Biz News. Got a real estate related news article you wish to share, contact Mike at [email protected]
Homebuyers didn’t get any relief in mortgage rates this week, leaving them with little choice to either move forward with their purchase plans at elevated rates or stick to the sidelines.
The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage edged higher to 6.71% from 6.67% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac. Rates have swayed between 6% and 7% since the start of the year, showing little signs of softening this summer.
The high rates have kept many homeowners from listing their homes, driving up prices on what’s left in the market and creating unfavorable conditions for the buyers still on the hunt.
“That move-up buyer is pretty much gone,” Luis Padilla, CEO of Oceanside Realty and Padilla Team in Miami, told Yahoo Finance. “It’s what’s putting the brakes on the market and inventory.”
Rate-trapped homeowners stall inventory growth
The latest data showing homes that went into contract in May underscores the inventory challenges.
Pending home sales, a leading indicator of the housing market’s health, dropped 2.7% in May from the previous month, much more than what was expected. That’s largely because buyers couldn’t find enough homes to make a deal, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, noting that each listing received three offers on average.
The shortages have persisted. There were 459,000 single-family homes on the market for the week ending June 26, according to Altos Research. While up 1.9% from a week prior, that’s 10% fewer homes compared with a year ago.
“Normally by mid June you’d have 10-20% more homes on the market than over the holidays,” Mike Simonsen, CEO of Altos Research, wrote in his blog. “But this year we have fewer.”
Chad Wootton looks at the listings of homes for sale while talking on the phone in Los Angeles. (Jae C. Hong, AP Photo)
The biggest reason for the dearth of properties is reluctance from homeowners, most of whom have a much lower mortgage rate than the prevailing rate.
“That move buyer doesn’t want to give up that 3% mortgage rate,” Padilla said. “They would rather commute 30 minutes to work than pay hundreds more on a monthly mortgage payment.”
Buyers move on to new homes
So what’s a homebuyer to do? Many of them who are still in the market are looking at new builds.
That was one factor that pushed the volume of mortgage applications for purchases up 3% for the week ending June 23, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). That’s the third week of increases and the highest level of activity since early May.
“New homes sales have been driving purchase activity in recent months as buyers look for options beyond the existing-home market,” MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said in a statement. “Existing-home sales continued to be held back by a lack of for-sale inventory as many potential sellers are holding on to their lower-rate mortgages.”
A Beazer home is shown under construction in Gilbert, Ariz. (Matt York, AP Photo)
Though new inventory offers a glimmer of hope, very few homes that are available are affordable to entry-level buyers.
Padilla noted that while the share of active listings had increased 19.5% in May in the Miami-Dade area, the average cost of a single-family home was $620,000, up 7.8% from a year prior. Prices for condos increased 6.5% to $415,000.
That tracks with national data this week showing prices have increased for three months in a row, making conditions worse for buyers out there.
“This is good news for homeowners gaining more equity,” Mark Fleming, First American’s chief economist, previously told Yahoo Finance. “But it will pressure affordability for the potential first-time homebuyer.”
Gabriella is a personal finance reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @__gabriellacruz.
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