The existing home sales market is a face on a milk carton, and homebuilders are salivating at the opportunity to meet strong consumer demand. So why aren’t they?
New data from the U.S. Census Bureau speaks to the growing strength of the new home market, which stands in stark contrast to the moribund re-sale market. May’s housing starts rate was actually the highest since April 2022, which was then the highest since 2006.
Let’s dive in a little deeper. Get a load of these figures:
Privately‐owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.63 million, 21.7% above the revised April estimate of 1.34 million and 5.7% above the May 2022 rate of 1.54 million. The 291,000-unit monthly increase in starts was the most since January 1990, and the 21.7% rise was the largest percentage gain since October 2016.
Single‐family housing starts in May were at a rate of 997,000; 18.5% above the revised April figure of 841,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 624,000. Interestingly, the share of single-family housing starts dropped to 61.5% of total housing starts over the past 12 months through May, the lowest share since 1986. The share of multifamily starts in buildings of 5+ units rose to 38.7%, the highest share since 1974.
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.491 million. This is 5.2% above the revised April rate of 1.41 million but is 12.7% below the May 2022 rate of 1.7 million. Single‐family authorizations in May were at a rate of 897,000; this is 4.8% above the revised April figure of 856,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 542,000 in May.
Currently there are 695,000 single-family units under construction, which is actually 136,000 units below the peak in May 2022. And there are currently 994,000 multifamily units under construction, the highest level since 1973.
Homebuilders are now completing more single-family homes than they are starting, but starting more multifamily units than they are completing. The latter is likely due in part to construction delays and stalled projects, but the permitting data suggests builders in single-family and multifamily see different levels of opportunity.
The industry probably won’t hit the extreme highs of 2022 in terms of housing starts, but multifamily is still booming. We’ll likely see a lot of units delivered later this year and into next year, though I would keep an eye on banks pulling back on construction financing, which could sharply reduce completions.
Single-family construction deliveries, meanwhile, will likely be more muted. That’s despite various housing economists projecting existing home sales to fall about 20% in May. (We’ll know more when the existing home sales report is released on Thursday and new home sales next week.)
In other words, the multifamily deliveries will likely relieve pressure in the form of rents and help with overall supply, but the inventory deliveries likely won’t do much for the sales market. And we still have a long way to go in meeting overall housing demand.
Homebuilders today have a big advantage. Their products now comprise about 30% of the sales market — nearly three times the normal rate — and that’s because there’s so few total homes. Cancellation rates among national homebuilders are now down to about 9% (you may recall that KB Homes reported a cancellation rate of 68% in Q4 2022) and the vast majority of them can throw major incentives like mortgage rate buydowns at choice-restricted homebuyers. The few existing homeowner sellers aren’t incentivized to negotiate much, and there’s no reason to think they will for a long while.
So why aren’t builders going even harder, particularly with single-family homes? The answer won’t shock you: beyond their own specific profit incentives, in much of America, it is simply way too hard to build a home, and way too expensive. Zoning restrictions, inane building code regulations/restrictions, NIMBYs and the weaponization of environmental laws have resulted in housing death by a thousand cuts. A nation doesn’t end up with a shortage of 6 million-plus homes by accident.
We’ve talked before about the regional disparities in inventory – the demographic trends for housing look strong through at least 2030, but also look at where we are building, courtesy of John Burns Research & Consulting.
State legislatures and governors on the coasts have failed to address their respective housing crises, particularly by allowing suburban towns to block housing. They desperately need to institute reforms and override local control.
It will certainly be an uphill battle. While homebuilders stick shovels in the suburbs and exurbs of the Sunbelt, few new homes are being built in the Northeast or on the West Coast.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul failed to get her YIMBY-friendly housing package through the legislature, though the sought reforms — which include mandating housing in the suburbs by overriding local zoning rules — are hopefully a future reference point for housing policy changes. And in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom in late September signed into law a major reform to homebuilding in the state, which will override local zoning codes to allow more affordable housing units to be built on commercially zoned land. He’s also looking to limit the procedural scope of the environmental law known as CEQA, which has been used to kill all sorts of projects in California. But under Newsom, California has built roughly 500,000 total housing units in six years. In a healthier market with fewer constraints, that figure would be closer to 2 million.
With arguably fewer incentives than ever for existing homeowners to sell, homebuilders must be able to maximize their productivity and build where demand is strong. Permit reform and policy changes alone won’t be enough to create millions of new housing units, but you gotta start somewhere.
Share your thoughts on permit reform and housing policies that would result in more housing by emailing me at [email protected].
In our weeklyDataDigest newsletter, HW Media Managing Editor James Kleimann breaks down the biggest stories in housing through a data lens. Sign up here! Have a subject in mind? Email him at [email protected]
A sweltering, muggy day in Paris did little to dampen the atmosphere at the Paris Air Show on Monday. Representatives from the aviation industry gathered for the first time in four years to showcase the latest products and technologies and to plot the course for the aerospace industry.
There was joy in being back at Paris—Le Bourget Airport (LBG) for the first time since 2019 (the coronavirus pandemic canceled the 2021 edition of the biennial show) and overall happiness about the demand the industry is currently seeing even as supply chains continue to buckle. Still, a muted undercurrent set the tone of the day.
Despite the overall bright spot that commercial aviation and its airline industry customers are currently enjoying, few new things were expected to be announced. Most of what was on display had been introduced at previous shows.
Instead, the day felt like a grounding exercise, a reset — or even just a chance to catch a collective breath — as the industry orients itself to whatever direction is next.
Complete coverage from the 2023 Paris Air Show:
There was manic yet tentative jubilation at the world’s nascent reopening that underpinned the Dubai Air Show in late 2021, and there were high expectations and sprawling displays at the first European show to return, Farnborough, just under a year ago. The first hours in Paris felt more like a deliberate effort to check for sure footing and to look up and see where things are heading.
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Of course, there was still plenty to see, hear and explore at the world’s biggest aviation event, and the quieter vibe didn’t stop a planemaker from inking a record-shattering deal. It is an air show, after all.
Airbus signed an agreement with Indian carrier IndiGo for a firm order of 500 A320 family aircraft — the biggest single aircraft purchase in the nearly 120-year history of commercial aviation. The deal was not quite a surprise as Reuters first reported earlier this month that it was nearing completion. Nevertheless, it eclipsed Air India’s recent order for 470 jets (itself a record-breaker at the time) and capped a successful first day for Airbus.
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The European planemaker also announced that Saudi budget airline Flynas had firmed 30 options for A320neo jets, while Air Mauritius ordered three A350 wide-bodies.
It was a quiet day for Boeing, by comparison, with no orders announced. However, the company had previously said it expected a quieter showing this year, having announced several major orders over the past six months.
Early in the day, Canadian planemaker De Havilland Canada made noise by introducing a new variant of its storied workhorse “Twin Otter” aircraft, the DHC-6. The new plane, the Twin Otter Classic 300-G, is a lighter version with a greater payload. Twin Otters can be seen on commuter routes, ferrying guests from the airport to their resorts in the Maldives, carrying supplies and cargo to rugged environments around the world, running medevac missions and more. DHC said it had sold up to 45 new planes so far.
Behind the scenes: What it was like to cover my first airshow: A Dubai Airshow recap
Air shows are sprawling affairs that typically take over an entire airport, albeit a smaller one. They feature taxiways and ramps full of aircraft on display, temporarily constructed “chalets” in which major companies and airlines hold meetings, exhibition halls full of civil and military aviation tech, glimpses of future projects that could define the industry and much more. For many attendees, the deals are an afterthought; the chance to see cool new stuff is the latest.
Over the coming days, TPG will bring more from the show. This year, the show features a strong presence from eVTOL makers racing to be the first “flying taxi” company to market. The gathering will also showcase everything from hopeful supersonic airplane designers to electric and hydrogen engines and sustainable aviation fuel providers looking to help transition the industry to a greener future.
Today, though, was about finding our own footing at the show, exploring some planes we rarely see inside (stay tuned!) and, of course, watching the flying displays and checking out the new stuff on the ground.
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DAVID SLOTNICK/THE POINTS GUY
I have a weakness for helicopter acrobatics, so seeing a few bonus swoops and dives earlier in the day was a treat. The official flying program doesn’t start until the afternoon.
DAVID SLOTNICK/THE POINTS GUY
We also saw Airbus fly its A321XLR at an air show for the first time. The planemaker first flew this extra-long-range variant last year, but not as part of a public display.
DAVID SLOTNICK/THE POINTS GUY
A Dassault Rafale fighter took the stage next. While I’m not as big on military aviation, it was cool to see it take flight with an Air France jet approaching Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG) in the background … and some of the stunts it pulled off in the humidity.
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DAVID SLOTNICK/THE POINTS GUY
Back on the ground, Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al Baker held a ceremony for the first Gulfstream G700 to join the airline’s executive fleet.
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DAVID SLOTNICK/THE POINTS GUY
Sitting next to a modified Airbus A319 already part of that fleet, the two were a notable pairing. We’ll have more on these two jets soon, but here’s a sneak preview:
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DAVID SLOTNICK/THE POINTS GUY
Speaking of sneak previews, new startup Saudi Arabian airline Riyadh Air — a sister airline to flag carrier Saudia and owned by the state’s sovereign wealth fund — displayed a leased 787-9 in its brand new livery. Riyadh doesn’t take delivery of its first planes until 2025, but it was an opportunity that the airline saw to make a splashy debut.
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DAVID SLOTNICK/THE POINTS GUY
I missed some of the afternoon flying display but still had the chance to see Boeing’s latest two jets — the 737 MAX 10 and 777-9, which are both still undergoing certification work.
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DAVID SLOTNICK/THE POINTS GUY
Finally, I saw some remarkable flying by a FedEx ATR-72-600, a French Potez CM-170 Fouga stunt plane and a U.S. F-35.
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DAVID SLOTNICK/THE POINTS GUY
Stay tuned for lots more at the Paris Air Show, and be sure to follow TPG on Instagram for even more from France.
One of the biggest events in the aviation world is about to kick off for the first time in four years.
The famed Paris Air Show is set to officially return Monday for the first time since 2019, the second major European air show since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
Want more airline-specific news? Sign up for TPG’s free biweekly Aviation newsletter.
The Paris Air Show, or Salon international de l’aeronautique et de l’espace de Paris-Le Bourget, takes place biennially on odd-numbered years, switching off with the Farnborough Air Show outside of London. Farnborough returned last year for the first time since the pandemic canceled the 2020 show.
Complete coverage from the 2023 Paris Air Show:
The 777X at the Dubai Airshow in November 2021. DAVID SLOTNICK/THE POINTS GUY
Major joint air shows, which mix civil and military aviation, offer opportunities for companies to showcase their latest products and innovations, and for plane manufacturers to display aircraft and announce new products and developments. That includes up-close walk-arounds, interior tours of new aircraft and riveting flying displays that can see test pilots pushing jetliners, helicopters, fighter jets and stunt aircraft to their limits.
Importantly, the shows also serve as a chance to finalize and announce deals and orders with customers.
There are also several smaller regional joint air shows around the world, including in Dubai, Singapore and Johannesburg, which often focus more on those regions’ airlines and products that might suit them. Paris and Farnborough, however, are typically considered the “home” shows for Toulouse, France-based Airbus and Arlington, Virginia-based Boeing, the two largest passenger aircraft-makers, giving the shows an extra boost of importance.
They’re also the main home shows for American and European airlines, which typically have a presence and sometimes announce new orders.
Sign up for our daily newsletter
What to expect at the Paris Air Show
There has been little indication that either plane-maker plans to announce a new aircraft program in Paris this year, although surprises are always possible.
Nevertheless, the show looks likely to feature some exciting updates and showcases.
Boeing plans to return with its 777-9, part of the new 777X generation, which first made its public debut at the 2021 Dubai Airshow, as well as the 737 MAX 10, which has moved closer to certification this year following a deal in Congress to allow certification of certain adopted tools from already-certified 737 MAX models.
Boeing also plans to highlight the passenger interior of the new 777X for the first time, which it says offers new flexible and spacious options for customers.
New Saudi Arabian mega-airline Riyadh Air, which ordered up to 72 Boeing 787 Dreamliners earlier this year, is expected to make its public debut with its very first airplane on display featuring the newly announced livery, while Gulf carrier Qatar Airways has scheduled several media events throughout the show.
The new eVTOL sector will take a more prominent spot at this year’s show than in the past, with Eve Air Mobility and Boeing-backed Wisk expected to display full-scale production mockups of their flying taxi-type aircraft, which remain in development. Other aspirational or in-development programs, like Boom Supersonic, will also have a large presence at the show.
DAVID SLOTNICK/THE POINTS GUY
Airbus, meanwhile, will display its in-demand A321LR and the hotly anticipated long-range A321XLR, which was announced at the 2019 show and is undergoing the certification process after completing its first test flight last year. The 321XLR is expected to take part in the flying demonstrations for the first time at an air show.
Boeing, which has announced a spate of major orders in the first half of this year — including a massive sale of its workhorse 737 MAX to budget carrier Ryanair last month — expects a relatively quieter show in terms of orders, according to one source, while Airbus is anticipating a splashy opening with an order for up to 500 A320neo aircraft from Indian carrier IndiGo, Bloomberg first reported.
Reports of an imminent Delta order for new wide-body aircraft emerged last month, which could be finalized and announced during the show.
Still, a run of orders remains possible as airlines scramble to secure delivery slots as travel demand grows and supply chain interruptions stymie plane-makers’ efforts to get aircraft into customers’ hands. Thinking ahead, airlines are planning their fleets for the 2030s and looking to avoid waiting too long and missing prime delivery opportunities.
Meanwhile, less splashy but nevertheless crucial suppliers like engine-makers and other component manufacturers will demonstrate new tools and parts that could help transform aviation, unlocking efficiency, longer range or more dynamic options for aircraft.
One of the biggest events in the aviation world is about to kick off for the first time in four years.
The famed Paris Air Show is set to officially return Monday for the first time since 2019, the second major European air show since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
Want more airline-specific news? Sign up for TPG’s free biweekly Aviation newsletter.
The Paris Air Show, or Salon international de l’aeronautique et de l’espace de Paris-Le Bourget, takes place biennially on odd-numbered years, switching off with the Farnborough Air Show outside of London. Farnborough returned last year for the first time since the pandemic canceled the 2020 show.
Complete coverage from the 2023 Paris Air Show:
The 777X at the Dubai Airshow in November 2021. DAVID SLOTNICK/THE POINTS GUY
Major joint air shows, which mix civil and military aviation, offer opportunities for companies to showcase their latest products and innovations, and for plane manufacturers to display aircraft and announce new products and developments. That includes up-close walk-arounds, interior tours of new aircraft and riveting flying displays that can see test pilots pushing jetliners, helicopters, fighter jets and stunt aircraft to their limits.
Importantly, the shows also serve as a chance to finalize and announce deals and orders with customers.
There are also several smaller regional joint air shows around the world, including in Dubai, Singapore and Johannesburg, which often focus more on those regions’ airlines and products that might suit them. Paris and Farnborough, however, are typically considered the “home” shows for Toulouse, France-based Airbus and Arlington, Virginia-based Boeing, the two largest passenger aircraft-makers, giving the shows an extra boost of importance.
They’re also the main home shows for American and European airlines, which typically have a presence and sometimes announce new orders.
Sign up for our daily newsletter
What to expect at the Paris Air Show
There has been little indication that either plane-maker plans to announce a new aircraft program in Paris this year, although surprises are always possible.
Nevertheless, the show looks likely to feature some exciting updates and showcases.
Boeing plans to return with its 777-9, part of the new 777X generation, which first made its public debut at the 2021 Dubai Airshow, as well as the 737 MAX 10, which has moved closer to certification this year following a deal in Congress to allow certification of certain adopted tools from already-certified 737 MAX models.
Boeing also plans to highlight the passenger interior of the new 777X for the first time, which it says offers new flexible and spacious options for customers.
New Saudi Arabian mega-airline Riyadh Air, which ordered up to 72 Boeing 787 Dreamliners earlier this year, is expected to make its public debut with its very first airplane on display featuring the newly announced livery, while Gulf carrier Qatar Airways has scheduled several media events throughout the show.
The new eVTOL sector will take a more prominent spot at this year’s show than in the past, with Eve Air Mobility and Boeing-backed Wisk expected to display full-scale production mockups of their flying taxi-type aircraft, which remain in development. Other aspirational or in-development programs, like Boom Supersonic, will also have a large presence at the show.
DAVID SLOTNICK/THE POINTS GUY
Airbus, meanwhile, will display its in-demand A321LR and the hotly anticipated long-range A321XLR, which was announced at the 2019 show and is undergoing the certification process after completing its first test flight last year. The 321XLR is expected to take part in the flying demonstrations for the first time at an air show.
Boeing, which has announced a spate of major orders in the first half of this year — including a massive sale of its workhorse 737 MAX to budget carrier Ryanair last month — expects a relatively quieter show in terms of orders, according to one source, while Airbus is anticipating a splashy opening with an order for up to 500 A320neo aircraft from Indian carrier IndiGo, Bloomberg first reported.
Reports of an imminent Delta order for new wide-body aircraft emerged last month, which could be finalized and announced during the show.
Still, a run of orders remains possible as airlines scramble to secure delivery slots as travel demand grows and supply chain interruptions stymie plane-makers’ efforts to get aircraft into customers’ hands. Thinking ahead, airlines are planning their fleets for the 2030s and looking to avoid waiting too long and missing prime delivery opportunities.
Meanwhile, less splashy but nevertheless crucial suppliers like engine-makers and other component manufacturers will demonstrate new tools and parts that could help transform aviation, unlocking efficiency, longer range or more dynamic options for aircraft.
We financial planners and financial writers love to trot out hypothetical illustrations along the lines of “If you save 20% of your income starting at age 40, you’ll be able to retire by your late 60s, assuming an 8% rate of return” — a scenario I wrote about in March. While such projections are necessary for planning for the future, the truth is that they will most definitely be wrong once the future rolls around. There are just too many unknowable variables, such as future investment returns, inflation rates, and tax rates.
However, the unknowable unknowns aren’t just limited to economic variables, as readers often remind me after I write such an article. Here’s a tale a GRS reader told in the comments section after my March post:
In 1996 I had $78,000 in retirement funds and was 32 years old (hubby was 38). Then our home was flooded because a contractor doing a city project made a mistake. While struggling with being unable to live in the house, I was diagnosed with cancer and needed surgery ([we had] no insurance). Within a year I had cashed out the $78,000 to begin rebuilding the house and pay for surgery (we recouped a very small portion of the loss from the contractor). We sold the house and walked away with $11,000 to our name. That was in 1998.
We’ve tried to get back on track, but every time I save, something happens to eat it up: chronic illness, cost of experimental medication, hurricane and tornado damage to home over three years (part not covered by insurance), and more. Life lesson for us: Continue to save because it’s the responsible thing to do. Plan for the future, but be prepared for something to get in the way of those plans.
A sad story with an important lesson: Along your road to retirement, you may encounter speed bumps, fender-benders, road blocks, and perhaps outright tragedies. While many will be unpreventable, the financial fallout can be mitigated.
In this post, we discuss the most common causes of financial derailment, and what you can do to keep your plan on course. While many of the solutions are specific to each particular risk, there’s one line of defense that will protect your financial empire regardless of the method of assault, and that is a big, fat emergency fund. You’ve heard it before, but we’ll say it again: Have three to six months’ worth of living expenses in cash, ready to be deployed when the possible becomes the present.
Illnesses and Accidents Health problems are expensive and can impair a person’s ability to earn a paycheck. They can also force older Americans into retirement earlier than planned. Studies indicate that as many as 45% of current retirees quit work due to health problems or disability. The haleness and heartiness of a household’s breadwinner(s) aren’t the only factor; the health problems of other relatives, such as children or elderly relatives, can consume savings and impede a career.
Your defense As the sad tale of the above GRS reader shows, being diagnosed with a serious disease while lacking health insurance can lead to financial disaster. Being properly insured is an absolute necessity. However, no insurance policy covers all procedures and all costs. Reduce the burden of out-of-pocket expenses by participating in your employer’s flexible-spending plan, if offered, which allows you to set aside money for qualified health-care expenses. The money you contribute is not subject to income or payroll taxes.
The decision to acquire disability insurance, which replaces your paycheck in case you’re unable to work, is not as clear-cut. You already have some coverage through Social Security, though the definition of disability is very stringent. You may also have coverage through your employer. If you decide to purchase disability insurance for yourself, you’ll find that it can be expensive and complicated. However, the more your job requires that you be in good physical shape (e.g., traveling, meeting with clients, holding a scalpel, violin, or other tool), the more you should consider disability insurance. Many employers, professional associations, and other groups offer group disability policies, which can be less expensive and easier to qualify for.
Finally, one of the best ways to keep health-care costs down is to be healthy. As much as 70% of health-care costs are due to lifestyle choices — eating too much, moving too little, and putting things in our mouths that smoke, impair, or bear no resemblance to anything in nature.
Job Loss Once the boss stops sending a paycheck, either due to a layoff or company collapse, contributions to the 401(k) also stop. Depending on the person’s employment prospects, it may also be just a matter of time before debt piles up or the nest egg is cracked to cover living expenses. It’s a recipe for a delayed retirement.
But it’s not only the unemployed who find it harder to save for retirement. These days, income insecurity also takes the form of stagnant or reduced wages, while the costs of many goods and services keep rising. In many cases, the first item in the budget that gets sacrificed is contributions to the 401(k) or IRA.
Your defense Strengthening and expanding human capital is one of the most under-appreciated concepts in financial planning. To shore up your ability to turn your talents into dollars, develop multiple skills, stay on top of the trends in your company and its industry, and become crucial to your employer or, if you’re self-employed, your customers.
Loss of a Spouse Whether through death or divorce, the loss of a spouse can be emotionally and financially devastating. Most married household finances are built on two incomes, or one income and one spouse who does a lot of work that otherwise would cost money (e.g., raising kids). Then there’s the division of labor; it’s common for one spouse to handle all the bills or one to handle all the investing, with the other spouse being fairly ignorant of what’s going on. A death or divorce can leave a spouse on her or his own, often getting by on less income and having to assume all the financial housework.
Your defense If the death of a spouse would lead to significant financial hardship, then that spouse should have life insurance. Also, don’t be in the dark about important aspects of financial planning; each spouse has to at least know enough to step in during an emergency. One subscriber to my newsletter (a man who handles most of the financial duties in his household) annually updates a document he calls “A Letter From Your Dead Husband,” which explains the family finances to his wife in the case of his untimely demise.
As for divorce, it’s not very romantic to plan for your marriage’s dissolution. But if your matrimony is full of acrimony, begin by protecting yourself while still being fair to your spouse. If you’re engaged, a prenuptial agreement can be a delicate topic but a good idea, especially if there are kids from previous relationships.
Natural Disaster The tsunamis in Japan and tornadoes throughout America demonstrate that Mother Nature is a risk to everyone’s financial plan.
Your defense Have enough homeowners or renters insurance, with an insurer that has a record of honoring legitimate claims. Inventory all your possessions, with proof of ownership for big-ticket items, so you can substantiate your claims if necessary. Keep copies in several places, including in a fireproof safe or safety deposit box, along with other valuable items so that they’ll have some extra protection from the elements (as well as thieves).
Kids It costs $260,700 to raise a kid until age 17, according to the Department of Agriculture (because there’s little difference between a cow and a kid). And that doesn’t factor in college costs. Yes, children are their own form of natural disaster, at least when it comes to money. (Don’t get me started on the hair loss.)
Your defense Scientists are working on a cure. In the meantime, enjoy all the non-financial benefits of reproducing or adopting. Such as an excuse to play Candyland and Chutes & Ladder, again… and again… and again.
American Financial Resources named top USDA manufactured wholesale partner | Mortgage Professional Specialty Wholesale USDA renovation loans and various construction financing options. “It is our sincere conviction that by embracing factory-built housing, we can address the critical issue of affordable housing while ensuring that everyone has access to a safe and comfortable place to call … [Read more…]
Let’s talk about traditional dining versus “my time” dining (also known as flexible, anytime or freestyle dining). Even if you’ve cruised a few times, do you really understand your mealtime options and what to choose?
An acquaintance, who is not a new cruiser, confessed to me that she only recently learned that meals in the luxurious-looking main dining rooms on cruise ships are included in the cruise fare. She had previously thought the phrase “anytime dining” referred only to eating in the buffet area whenever she wanted.
While it’s true you can eat in the buffet anytime it’s open, flexible dining (by whatever name your cruise line calls it) specifically refers to the main dining room. It’s one of the standard complimentary dining options on every cruise ship. Whether you select to eat at the same table at the same time each night or opt to take your chances on any available table during the dining room’s open hours, you never have to pay to eat in your ship’s grand dining hall.
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Don’t let the complexities of cruise ship dining plans keep you from enjoying all the great food your ship has to offer. Here, I’ll walk you through the ins and outs of “my time” versus traditional dining, as well as how these dining concepts came to be and how to choose the best meal plan for your trip.
A brief history of cruise ship dining concepts
The Manhattan Room on Norwegian Epic. SUSAN SEUBERT/NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE
For a bit of history of the dining concepts used by most mainstream cruise lines, you have to go back a couple of decades. In the past, all cruise ships served dinner at two fixed times, dubbed early and late seatings. Everyone was assigned to one of the seatings, and they’d sit at the same table, with the same dinner companions and waiters, for the duration of their cruise.
That concept began to evolve in the early 2000s when Norwegian Cruise Line introduced Freestyle Dining. Rather than have everyone assigned to arrive at specific times, cruisers were allowed to show up to eat whenever they wanted during the dining room’s hours of operation. NCL’s Freestyle Dining also heralded the modern version of specialty restaurants, so not only could passengers eat at the time of their choosing, but at whichever eatery suited their fancy each evening. It was a stunning change to the long-running system previously used.
The idea took hold. After considerable fine-tuning of the dining concept over the years and plenty of variation among cruise lines, the industry standard now is that most ships allow you to choose either the traditional early or late dining options or a flexible option with open seating and no set dining time.
Traditional dining
The Festivale Restaurant on Carnival Celebration. ERICA SILVERSTEIN/THE POINTS GUY
Traditional dining includes an assigned table and your choice of an early or late dinner time. Though what constitutes “early” and “late” varies by cruise destination, on most cruise lines, the early seating is usually set to a specific time between 5 and 6 p.m., while the late seating might be as early as 7:45 (Carnival Cruise Line) or as late as 9 p.m. (MSC Cruises, which has three traditional seatings on some ships).
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You can opt into this traditional plan when you book your cruise, and the decision-making ends there. When you arrive for your cruise, you’ll be handed a cruise card marked with your dining room name and deck number, dining time and possibly even your table number.
From that point, each evening you will show up at your table at the appropriate time. If your travel group spans several cabins and you want to dine together, you should coordinate your choices before booking, then ensure that the reservations are linked. It’s wise to have someone in the group stop by the restaurant on boarding day to make sure the group will be seated together.
Related: The ultimate guide to cruise ship food and dining
If you’re just a couple or a small travel party, the dining team may assign you to a table by yourself or place you at a large table with cruisers you don’t know. You can ask for dining time and table changes once on board, but the restaurant staff may or may not be able to accommodate requests.
Cruisers who prefer traditional dining say they prefer it over flexible options partly because they feel it allows them to get to know their waitstaff, which is not always a guarantee with “my time” dining. Others feel it’s better simply because once you know where your table is on the first evening, there’s no standing in line to be seated unless you arrive before the doors open.
There are reasons to think twice about set seating. An early dinner often leaves you with no time to wind down and dress for dinner, especially when the ship has a late departure from port and you want to make the most of your time ashore.
Also, if you’re cruising in a time zone just a few hours different from your norm, you might find you’re hungry at the wrong times for traditional fixed dining. Alaska is the worst for me. I’m not hungry enough for the early seating but hangry by the time the late seating rolls around. Flexible options work best for me on those itineraries.
‘My time’ dining
PUXAN BC PHOTO/PRINCESS CRUISES
On cruise lines that offer both traditional and flexible dining, you generally opt into the flexible dining program at the time of booking. Your stateroom keycard will list you as a flexible dining passenger and note your assigned dining room.
Lines that offer both a traditional and anytime dining program will usually separate the two groups into different dining rooms or different areas of a large dining room. Menus are identical for both groups, so don’t worry about missing out.
Here’s where it gets a little confusing. On most lines, prior to sailing, those who opt into flexible dining can make main dining room reservations for each night of the cruise. Do you have to make reservations? The answer is a resounding no, unless you have a large group wanting to dine together.
Think of it like dining out at a restaurant on land. You can show up at your leisure and wait in line for a table, or you can make a reservation and possibly be seated more quickly. On a cruise ship, those with reservations may be offered a priority line, sometimes even a separate section of the dining room. Those without reservations will still be seated, but during a rush you may have to wait a few minutes (or even an hour) for a table to open up.
One big plus for flexible dining is that you can make specific table requests each night. You might have to wait a bit longer for that window table for two, but if it’s important to you, it might be worth the wait.
Some cruise lines only offer flexible dining options. Norwegian’s modern version of Freestyle Dining has no fixed dining times; you can dine anytime you wish during a venue’s hours of operation. Reservations are not required but are “highly suggested.” These can be made pre-cruise online in your MyNCL planner or on board, subject to availability.
Princess Cruises recently changed its dual system to a single system called Dine My Way. You can dine at the same time, same table every night, or change it up on a daily basis, but you need to make advance reservations for your preferred mealtimes. Changes are made in the Princess MedallionClass app.
People who rave over flexible dining options often have a serious aversion to sitting with strangers or prefer to dine with different people each night. Let the maitre d’ know your preferred table size. Families with small children love the ability to eat around the schedule that works for their family on any given day.
One last advantage of flexible dining (and it might be the deciding factor for some) is the ability to book spa appointments during the traditional dining times. Especially on big ships where the spas stay open late, flexible dining allows you to dine around your spa time, not the other way around.
On the other hand, you might think twice about selecting “my time” dining if the cruise line’s shows are a priority for you. On cruise lines that offer both traditional and flexible dining, the show schedule is likely to match the traditional time frames to allow as many people as possible to attend the shows. Dining between the two traditional times would cause you to miss the early show, if there are two performances, and the entire show on nights when there’s only one performance.
Also, if you feel like you are queuing in enough lines already, you might be happier with a traditional dining time. Flexible dining always involves lines, even when you make reservations. On a good night, at a late evening arrival time, your wait might be minor, but on a megaship with 3,000-plus people wanting to be seated at 6:45, you could find yourself waiting for an extended time.
Specialty dining
Making plans to skip the main dining room in favor of a specialty restaurant or dining rooms exclusive to your stateroom category does not alter your ability to choose either a traditional or “my time” style of dining in the main dining room. You don’t even need to let the wait staff know you plan to dine elsewhere. (In most cases, the maitre d’ will have access to your specialty reservations, so they will not be expecting you, but if you have tablemates, it’s a courtesy to let them know.)
Related: 5 reasons you should splurge on a cruise ship specialty restaurant
It’s perfectly OK to choose traditional dining as your main option but make a 7:30 reservation in a specialty restaurant one night, plus try out the suites-only dining room a few nights (if you have access). You can usually see the menus in advance, either in the app, on interactive screens in your stateroom or posted near the restaurants themselves.
Cruise line offerings
Cyprus, one of the complimentary restaurants on Celebrity Beyond. ERICA SILVERSTEIN/THE POINTS GUY
Several cruise lines offer both flexible and traditional dining in the main dining room.
Carnival offers a flexible plan called Your Time Dining that uses pagers to let you know when your table is ready. Carnival’s website states that “advance table reservations are not accepted,” but recent Carnival cruisers report being able to use the app to let the dining room know they are on their way to speed up their wait time most nights.
Royal Caribbean’s My Time Dining plan uses optional reservations with separate lines for those who reserve a seating time. Sister line Celebrity Cruises’ options are a bit confusing. Its traditional dining plan is named Celebrity Select Early or Late, and its flexible dining is dubbed Celebrity Select Anytime. This latter plan offers advance reservations and separate lines for those who walk up without reservations.
Holland America calls flexible dining As You Wish Dining, with reservations accepted but not required. MSC Cruises calls its nontraditional dining plan My Choice Dining. This option is only available to guests who book the Aurea or Yacht Club experience; passengers selecting the Bella or Fantastica packages can only access set-time dining.
In addition to Princess and Norwegian, which have dropped set-seating dining options, upscale lines like Windstar Cruises, Viking and Oceania Cruises do not utilize set dining times, tables or dining companions, nor do luxury cruise lines. Most of these accept main dining room reservations made by calling the maitre d’ or have dining rooms so spacious they can accommodate all walk-ups with no wait. Advance reservations on these lines are especially useful for group dining.
All cruise lines expect reservations for sit-down specialty restaurants.
Related: 12 dining mistakes you must fix on your next cruise
Bottom line: ‘My Time’ dining vs. traditional dining
PRINCESS CRUISES
Traditional dining, when it’s offered, is a great option for large groups traveling together. There’s no last-minute quibbling over dinner reservations and whether the group can get a table together. Everyone knows ahead of time when they’ll be eating and which dining room and table to go to for dinner.
Flexible dining — whether called My Time, Anytime, Freestyle or something else — works for those for whom the early or late traditional times aren’t ideal or those who want to eat at different times each night depending on the day’s schedule. Cruising with children is one reason some people prefer to keep all dining options flexible. The same holds true for travelers who pack their cruise days with every available activity.
The bottom line when it comes to traditional versus “my time” dining is to choose what works best for you and your travel companions on any given cruise. Some people choose traditional dining when they travel with groups of friends and family and the flexible plan when they travel with only one partner or with children. Others stick with one or the other on every cruise.
Either way, cruise lines want happy cruisers. Giving you choices of how and when your main dining room experience is scheduled is one way to keep everyone satisfied.
Lopez, a 30-year mortgage industry veteran, is currently the chairman of AmeriSphere Companies, which is involved in commercial real estate development and investment. He also previously served as MBA’s 2017 chairman. “Rodrigo Lopez is a titan in commercial real estate finance, a tremendous leader, and a longtime champion of MBA and its efforts to diversify … [Read more…]
A few weeks ago, I attended the Morningstar Investment Conference and took in the insights and predictions of all kinds of mutual fund managers and financial experts. On the whole, these folks weren’t too optimistic about earning exceptional returns on any kind of investment. Bonds and cash have paltry yields, and stocks aren’t as cheap as they were a couple of years ago. I think the collective investment advice of the event could be summed up by a line from Tom Hancock of money-management firm GMO, who said, “The only thing I like about stocks is they’re not bonds.”
During the opening session, Pimco co-chief investment officer and bond fund manager Bill Gross bemoaned the low rates on Treasuries. He also argued that investors shouldn’t expect 10% returns from stocks. But at the end of his talk, Gross suggested investors look for a solid, inflation-beating return from companies that pay steady dividends — companies such as Coca-Cola, Proctor & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Southern Company, and Duke Energy. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Johnson & Johnson, and when children pass me in the street they scream, “Gross!”)
Bill Gross was singing a tune similar to what has been wafting from the pages my Rule Your Retirement newsletter over the past few months: Stocks are not priced for exceptional returns over the next decade, and in a sideways market, dividends play an even bigger role in your portfolio.
As I listened to Gross, I wondered what would happen at the extreme: What if stocks didn’t gain a penny and all we received was dividends? I fired up Excel and found some fascinating figures.
Benefits of Stock Dividends
First off, let’s recap the benefits of stock dividends.
Unlike the interest from bonds, dividends tend to grow over time, historically at a rate that exceeds inflation. For most investors, the smart strategy is to use those dividends to buy more shares of stock, so that they’ll receive even more dividends, so they can buy even more stocks, and so on. In a previous post, I likened dividend-paying stocks to money-growing trees that produce a little more financial fruit each year. If you buy more trees with that cash crop, you reap even more fiscal flora. Given long enough time, you could have a whole greenhouse producing the green stuff.
To illustrate how this can pay off over the long term, let’s move from stalks to stocks and assume you own 1,000 shares of a stock that trades for $100, for a total investment of $100,000. (Note that this is just a hypothetical illustration; very, very few people should have so much money in one stock; also, the same principles apply to a mutual fund that pays dividends, even if you invest just $100.) The stock has a 3% dividend yield, so over the past year you received $3 per share, or a total of $3,000 in dividends.
Unfortunately, the price of this stock doesn’t move much over the next decade. In fact, it doesn’t move at all. Here’s what such an investment would look like after 10 and 20 years, if the dividend increases 6% a year but the stock price doesn’t budge.
Now
After 10 Years
After 20 Years
Value of Investment
$100,000
$151,726
$319,120
Number of Shares Owned
1,000
1,517
3,191
Dividends Received During the Last Year
$3,000
$7,885
$28,943
Annualized Return
N/A
4.3%
6.0%
While ten or twenty years of no price movement in a stock is disappointing, all is not lost. By reinvesting the dividends, you still earned money, thanks to owning more shares that each pay higher dividends.
Slowly Get Rich with Dividends
Like all illustrations of compound interest — i.e., earning interest on interest, or, in this case, dividends on dividends — it’s not something that will make you wealthy overnight — but it could help you get rich slowly. (Hey, that would be a great name for a website!). Also, like all illustrations of compounding growth, it looks better the more time you give it.
If you can stretch your investing horizon even further — or if you’re trying to convince a young investor to get started early — 30 years of reinvested dividends, growing 6% a year, will turn that $100,000 starting sum into $1.2 million, for an 8.6% annualized gain.
Earning 4% or even 8% on your long-term money may not sound exciting to some people. But that’s not tragic considering it’s based on a dire scenario: a stock that doesn’t increase in value for 10, 20, or 30 years. Of course, I hope that any stock or mutual fund you buy does increase in value. And when that happens, dividend reinvestment pays off even more, because you’re accumulating more shares to benefit from that capital appreciation.
An Uncertain Future with Stock Investments
This article isn’t intended to persuade you to buy stocks. Stocks are volatile and risky and often stinky and all that. I am not offering boilerplate legalese when I say that I’m not 100% confident stock investments will be worth more in 20 years than they are today.
At the Morningstar Investment Conference, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said, “Anyone who plans to be around in 10 years should be in equities.” It’s not hard to see his point when you look at the alternatives. On the other hand, if you read the aforementioned link to Doug Short’s site, you won’t feel so sanguine about stocks.
As for me, I continue to own stocks in all forms — index funds, some actively managed funds, a handful of individual companies — but I don’t expect exceptional returns; I’m basing my retirement on my ability to save, not on the return I earn on the savings. And I expect that dividend reinvestment will be a large source of any returns I receive.
American Airlines is adding four new lines to its domestic route map.
Later this year, the Fort Worth-based carrier will start flying the following four routes, as first seen in Cirium schedules and later confirmed by the carrier.
Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) — Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL).
DCA — Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport (MKE).
Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) — Albany International Airport (ALB).
Miami International Airport (MIA) — Portland International Airport (PDX).
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All of the new routes are interesting, but perhaps the most intriguing is the new service between Miami and Portland, Oregon.
CIRIUM
Miami has historically been a fortress hub for American, acting as its key gateway to the Caribbean and Latin America with plenty of domestic feed for both the local and connecting markets.
So, despite the new route being one of the longest coast-to-coast flights in the American network, it may not necessarily be surprising to see the airline adding a new 2,700-mile service from Miami to Portland.
The airline shared in a statement that “American Airlines is pleased to announce new nonstop service from Miami (MIA) to Portland, Oregon (PDX) starting this November. The new nonstop service will complement American’s network of more than 140 destinations from MIA and opens convenient, one-stop access to the largest network of destinations in the Caribbean and Latin America from the United States.”
However, keen aviation observers will remember that it was just days ago when Alaska Airlines, which operates a hub in Portland, announced plans to commence flights to Miami later this year.
While American’s new route announcement could purely be a coincidence, the timing of when the service starts makes it pretty clear that this move is targeted at Alaska. American’s new Miami-to-Portland flight starts on Nov. 5, and Alaska’s will commence less than two weeks later.
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To recap, Miami is going from having no flights to Portland to having two daily flights in just a matter of days.
Though American and Alaska are Oneworld alliance partners and share a West Coast International Alliance, American’s competitive response is seemingly starting a turf war between the airlines.
More flight options are certainly better for travelers, especially since airlines like to match each other’s fares. While Alaska must now fend off a new competitor in Miami, the airline is no stranger to a turf war.
The Seattle-based carrier had a strong relationship with Delta Air Lines in the early 2010s that included a robust codeshare and frequent flyer alliance. By the middle of the decade, however, the partnership frayed as Delta moved instead to build its own hub in Seattle, ultimately competing head-to-head with Alaska on many of its most lucrative routes.
The partnership ultimately ended in 2017 amid an escalating turf battle for Seattle. Since then, Alaska’s been in growth mode — boosting the Seattle hub with new routes and elevating many elements of the travel experience, including new and expanded airport lounges.
ZACH GRIFF/THE POINTS GUY
Meanwhile, in San Diego, Alaska recently announced new service to Dulles International Airport (IAD), a key hub for United. A few days later, United retaliated by upgauging its route with the airline’s twin-aisle Boeing 777.
Since then, Alaska has been “trolling” United by switching its flight number to “AS 777” and offering select flyers 777 bonus miles for taking the new route.
American’s three other new routes are quite interesting as well. The flight from Washington, D.C., to Fort Lauderdale will go up against JetBlue’s flights in the same market.
While the Northeast Alliance between American and JetBlue may not be around for much longer, the two carriers are seemingly battling at DCA.
Meanwhile, the flight from Dallas to Albany will become American’s longest from the New York capital. The new route to Milwaukee will go head-to-head with Southwest Airlines.
“American is excited to offer more service to Reagan National Airport (DCA) with the additions of Fort Lauderdale and Milwaukee,” said Brian Znotins, American’s senior vice president of network planning. “These new markets join our robust DCA network of more than 85 destinations. We’re proud to serve these new in-perimeter markets without adding more congestion to the most heavily-utilized runway in the nation.”