See our picks for the most memorable episodes of RHOBH.


She’s cashing out.

Source: realitytea.com

Apache is functioning normally

When you have kids you always want to do what’s best for them. You wonder, what is the right brand of diapers to buy, which baby lotion is the best for their skin, which car seat is the safest? The sheer number of decisions that you have to make as a new parent can be overwhelming. 

One of the decisions my husband and I are currently grappling with is around the state of our children’s education. Where should they go to school? Where will they receive the best education? Is there a certain educational philosophy that would fit best with their learning style? 

When I was growing up the decision was easy. You go to the school that’s closest to where you live. And while this is still an option, parents can also consider a number of other choices. You can send your children to public school, charter school, private school, or you can homeschool.  

This article will introduce these four different schooling options, what they are, how they work, and the eduction costs involved so you can make the decision that is best for your family.

What’s Ahead:

The cost of private, public, charter, and homeschool tuition and other costs to consider

Private Public Charter Homeschool
Average out of pocket tuition $11,004 Free Free Free
Other costs to consider Uniform
Extra curriculars
Transportation
Tutoring
Field trips
“Keeping up with Joneses”
School supplies
Tutoring
Clothing
Field trips
School supplies
Tutoring
Clothing
Field trips
Transportation
Curriculum
School supplies
Textbooks
Computers
Workstation (desk/chairs)
Opportunity costs

In 2019, there were approximately 56.6 million students attending elementary and secondary school in the U.S. Of those students, 5.8 million were enrolled in a private school and 50.8 million were enrolled in public schools. 

As of 2017, 7.1% of public schools are classified as charter schools. Charter schools have seen their numbers grow from 6,860 in 2016 to 7,010 in 2017.

There are approximately 2.5 million students from grades K-12 being homeschooled in the US. According to the National Home Education Research Institute. This is equivalent to approximately 3% – 4% of school-aged children. 

Private school

Private school can be super expensive for the average family. While we all want what is best for our kids you might be wondering, why would I stretch myself so thin financially when I can send my kids to public school for free?

Great question. 

Every family will have their own reasons for choosing the school system that is right for them but some of the reasons families opt for private include: 

  • Smaller class sizes (sometimes). According to EducationalData.org, the average class size for private schools is 18.8 students compared to 24 students in public school. 
  • Looking for a specific educational approach. For instance, some families might want their children to experience the Montessori style of learning.
  • Gifted children or children with special needs. Certain children learn better in particular environments or require different supports.
  • Religious or cultural preference. Many private schools have a religious affiliation which may be especially important to a family. 

The cost of attending a private school

Private schools are funded by private companies and by the banks of moms and dads!  

According to Private School Review, the average cost of tuition for private school is $11,004. Breaking this down even further, the average tuition for private elementary school is $9,900 per year. The average tuition for private high school is $14,711 per year. 

Of course, the cost will also depend on where you live. If you’re located in Connecticut or Massachusetts I’m sorry to say you will be paying the highest private school tuition rates at over $24,000 per year (ouch). 

If you look into private schools associated with the National Association of Independent Schools (NAIS), the cost of tuition is even higher. The average day tuition for a NAIS school sits at $26,866 for the 2019-2020 school year. 

If you want to send your little one off to boarding school at a NAIS school, the five-day average is $46,475, and the average for a seven-day boarding school is $60,600. Wowza, that kid better get into Harvard…am I right?

Other costs associated with private school

When it comes to the cost of sending your child to private school, tuition cost is just one piece of the puzzle. You should also consider: 

  • Uniforms.
  • Extracurricular activities.
  • Gas money. (this could get pricey if you have a long daily commute to and from school)
  • The cost of keeping up with the Joneses. A lot of wealthy families send their kids to private schools. This means you might be dealing with kids that have a lot and, in turn, your kids will want to keep up. Of course, it’s up to you to manage your children’s expectations but be prepared to have this conversation. 

How to minimize costs

If you want your children to attend private school because of the smaller class sizes or specific programs being offered, you can look into financial aid to see if you qualify. If cost is an issue you can also consider religious vs. secular private schools, as religious private schools tend to be cheaper.

Public school

The majority of elementary and secondary students in the U.S. are enrolled in public schools. Public schools can be a great option for families for a number of different reasons including: 

  • Cost. I mean you can’t beat free, right?
  • Availability. All children in the U.S. have access to a free public education. 
  • Diversity. Public schools are often more diverse in terms of ethnicity and socioeconomic status. 

The cost of attending public school

The average cost of public school education per student (pre K through to grade 12) in the U.S. is $13,440. The cost of a public school education is covered by funding from the government at the federal, state, and local levels.  

While you don’t have to write out a check to pay for your children’s public education, don’t be mistaken, you are still paying. Payment comes in the form of taxes!  

So, while you won’t have to dish out thousands of dollars for tuition, you will pay in other ways. Yay! 

Of course, if you already live in a home that is located in a great school district then you probably won’t worry about your property taxes in relation to your kids’ education! 

Other costs to consider

  • School supplies and clothing. In 2019 American households planned to spend an average of $696.70 on back to school shopping. This included school supplies, clothes, shoes, and electronics. 
  • Tutoring. According to tutors.com, the average hourly price of a private tutor ranges between $25 – $80 per hour.
  • Field trips. Any special trips outside of the school walls are going to cost you. It’s estimated that the average expense for field trips and extra activities at the elementary level ranges from $10 to $3,500.

How to minimize costs

  • Shop the back to school sales. This can apply to clothes, shoes, and electronics. You can check out whether or not your state has a sales tax holiday that is specifically geared at back to school purchases. You can check out if your state offers a sales tax holiday and when it is on the Sales Tax Institute website.
  • Buy used. If you are trying to keep costs down then consider going to a consignment store to buy used clothing or shoes. This can be especially useful for younger kids who seem to grow out of their stuff every few months. 

Charter schools

Charter schools are a type of public school and while they share some characteristics with a regular public school, they also have their differences. 

How are charter schools and public schools similar?

  • Both publicly funded.
  • Both offer free tuition.

How are charter schools and public schools different?

  • Run by independent groups while regular public schools are governed by the school board and school district.  
  • Charter schools don’t have to follow the same rules and regulations as regular public schools. They enjoy a greater sense of freedom and flexibility when it comes to their curriculum and even their school hours. 
  • Students usually have to apply to get into a charter school. If there are not enough spots for all of the applicants then a lottery is held. 
  • Charter schools often come to fruition in an effort to achieve a specific goal
  • You don’t have to live in a particular district to go to a charter school. If you can get yourself there, and you’ve been accepted, then you can go.

The cost of attending a charter school

As I already mentioned, the cost of a charter school is the same as a public school, it’s free! 

Other costs to consider

There’s not much new to consider here. It’s the same costs associated with a regular public school – you know, school supplies, clothes, and potentially some tutoring and field trips. However, if you get into a charter school that is super far away from where you live then you’ll also want to consider the amount of gas you’re going to be needing for your commute. 

Homeschooling

With the current state of the world, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an influx in the number of children being homeschooled. Or maybe, all of the parents who temporarily had to step in to play the role of teacher have been scared off for good! 

Regardless, homeschooling is another option and one that accounts for approximately 2.5 million students from kindergarten to grade 12. 

Homeschooling is pretty self-explanatory – it’s schooling your kids at home. There are several reasons that a family might choose this as an option including:

  • Other school options were not a good fit for their child.
  • The family has a specific religious background that will direct the way they teach.
  • Similarly, they might have a particular educational philosophy that they want to follow.
  • Some parents might feel that it is safer to teach their children from home.
  • Your child has special needs.

The cost of homeschooling

Obviously, when it comes to homeschooling there will be no hefty tuition. However, there are still many costs associated with this form of schooling. According to the National Home Education Research Institute (NHERI), families who homeschool spend an annual average of $600 per student. 

Other costs associated with homeschooling

Homeschooling is different from the other school options I’ve covered in this story because you will be the teacher and you will be teaching out of your home. So, you have to consider all of the costs associated with that task of teaching such as purchasing a curriculum, unless you decide to create your own. 

You will also need to ensure that your students have all of the tools they need to learn. This could include:

  • Textbooks.
  • Laptops.
  • Wifi.
  • Craft supplies.
  • Science experiment supplies.
  • Pens and paper.
  • Comfy chair to sit in and desks to work at.
  • Use your imagination – you can see how your costs could get out of control if you didn’t have a strict budget! 

Cost of being home

Then there is the cost associated with having your children at home most of the time. This could increase your heating or cooling bills, your water bill, and most definitely the food bill. 

Extracurriculars

What about extracurriculars? If your kids have been at home all day then they could probably use a dose of socialization (or socially distanced socialization) — depending on the times! Extracurricular activities can get expensive so make sure you consider this.

Field trips

Also, if you want to take your students on any field trips, that’s going to be coming out of your wallet. And, because your class sizes are probably pretty small you likely won’t be getting a volume discount at your local science center or zoo. 

Personal development

Unless you come from a background in education, you might want to consider some teaching classes to improve your pedagogical skills.

Opportunity costs

If you really want to think about the cost of homeschooling from all angles you also want to consider your opportunity costs. What are you giving up to homeschool your kids? Are you giving up a lucrative career or a job that you’re truly passionate about? Is it worth it to you? 

On the flip side, maybe homeschooling your littles and spending tons of time with them is what you are passionate about. 

Your sanity

Last by not least. What is your sanity worth? Are you mentally prepared to take on the role of teacher with your children? Again, this will depend on a number of factors including whether or not you want to take on this role or you feel it is your obligation due to…oh, I don’t know, a worldwide pandemic. 

How to minimize costs

  • Look for free publicly-funded curriculums online.
  • Borrow books from the library instead of purchasing new.
  • Use free online resources for teaching (we all know there’s a ton of good info available on YouTube and blogs).
  • If you plan to go on the same field trip several times (e.g. local science center) then consider buying a family pass instead of purchasing individual tickets for each visit.

How to save for your kids education

If you know you want your kids to attend private school and your bank is not overflowing with money, then it’s important to start saving as early as possible. In fact, you might want to consider saving while your kids are still babies, or even when you start thinking about having kids. It sounds crazy but private school is expensive.

While private school is the most expensive when it comes to out of pocket tuition, each type of school has costs associated with it. There is no free education. 

If you want to start putting some money into savings for your kids education, be it tuition or back to school clothes, you can check out Chime®. Chime is a great option for those who like to bank digitally as it operates online and offers both checking and savings accounts. *

Chime is a good place to keep savings associated with your kids schooling because they offer 2.00% APY. So, instead of earning nothing back if you just leave this money sitting in a checking account, you will at least be earning some interest. 

* Chime is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by The Bancorp Bank, N.A. or Stride Bank, N.A., Members FDIC.
7 The Annual Percentage Yield (“APY”) for the Chime Savings Account is variable and may change at any time. The disclosed APY is effective as of November 17, 2022. No minimum balance required. Must have $0.01 in savings to earn interest.

Do people who attend one type of school perform better?

If you’re a parent then you know that there are virtually an endless number of ways that you can screw up your kids. You give them too much attention as babies – hello attachment issues. You let them see a screen before they are 10 – ugh, how could you. You put them into public school instead of spending your grocery money on private school – do you even care about your children?

The question is, do people who attend one type of schooling perform better and then make more money as adults?

Private vs. public

In a longitudinal study published in 2018, researchers found that kids (K to 9th grade) in private school perform better academically, socially, and psychologically then kids who attend public schools. However, when you control for sociodemographic factors that typically direct which students are able to go to a private school ( a.k.a how much money your parents make) “all of the advantages of private school were eliminated.” 

The study also reported that “there was no evidence to suggest that low-income children or children enrolled in urban schools benefited more from private school enrollment.” 

Public vs. charter

The National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP) evaluates students’ academic achievement at grade four, eight, and 12 levels in both private and public schools across the country. In 2017 they compared the reading and math test scores of grade eight students from traditional public schools and charter schools and found no measurable difference. (Note that these results were observed after controlling for parents’ educational attainment). 

Anecdotally, I know a lot of super amazing, smart, successful, and kind people who graduated from public school. I too graduated from public school and I hold no resentment towards my parents for not putting me in a private, charter, or homeschooling situation. 

Public vs. homeschooling

According to NHERI, homeschooled students “score above average on achievement tests regardless of their parents’ level of formal education or their family’s household income.” 

However, an article in the Studies in Educational Evaluation Journal proposes that comparing academic achievement in public school to academic achievement in homeschool is not comparing apples to apples. The study suggests that this is because it’s hard to know if the evaluation methods used to determine academic achievement in a homeschool environment are compatible with the teaching and education occurring within that context. 

So, when it comes to which is “better” academically or performance-wise the answer is murky at best. It depends more on what is the right fit for your child. 

Do people who attend one type of school make more money as adults?

Honestly, when researching the answer to this question you can find evidence to support each type of schooling. Proponents of private school will give you evidence to suggest that your child will have a higher earning potential if they go private. Proponents of public and charter schools will have their own evidence to suggest that a public education is the way to reach success, as will the homeschoolers. 

What’s important to remember is that your children’s school is one variable in their lives. You want to know two variables that are more likely to contribute to your child’s future earning potential – their socioeconomic background (how much money do their parents make) and their parents’ educational level (high school degree vs. master or doctorate).

As a parent, I get that we all want to do right by our children. But, when it comes to trying to predict their future earning potential I have to stop and shake my head. Yes, we want our kids to find financial security but when it comes to their education shouldn’t we be more worried about finding a school that supports their learning style, challenges their amazing aptitude for curiosity, and encourages them to see the beauty in diversity and new ideas? 

And, if you feel bad because you live in a not-so-stellar school district and don’t have the means to relocate, remember this. School in the traditional sense of the word is just one way that you learn. There are so many other ways to encourage your children’s development and challenge their curiosity. Bring home mountains of free library books and teach them the joy of reading. Take them outside in nature and explore, you can even use YouTube to learn about new places and cultures.  

Is the cost of each type of school worth it?

Now I hope you’re armed with a lot more information when it comes to evaluating which type of school is best for your kids and your family. There is no one size fits all solution when it comes to school. Every kid is different, the way they learn is different, the schools are different, the teachers are different. There are simply too many variables to say which one is better, or worth more than the other. What you value is ultimately going to be different than what I value. 

When it comes to finding the right fit, this is a mental calculation you will have to perform with your family. If you’re struggling to choose between all of the options the first question you can ask yourself is, “can I afford private school?” If you have to choose between paying your child’s tuition and keeping the lights on in your house, maybe private school isn’t the right choice. 

Summary

When deciding on which type of school to send your child to, remember, based on the research, your kids will have the opportunity to succeed in life regardless of the type of school they go to. There are many things that are more likely to improve your kids’ chances of success and a better financial outcome – like having a loving parent and someone they can consistently count on. 

Read more:

Source: moneyunder30.com

Apache is functioning normally


Washington, DC
CNN
 — 

The housing market showed clear signs of slowing, according to new data released on Thursday.

Mortgage rates climbed this week after three weeks of declines, according to the latest survey from Freddie Mac. Separately, a report from the National Association of Realtors showed that pending home sales dropped much more than expected in May.

Rising mortgage rates

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.71% in the week ending June 29, up from 6.67% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 5.70%.

Mortgage rates have remained over 5% for all but one week during the past year and even went as high as 7.08%, last reached in November.

“Despite affordability headwinds, homebuyers have adjusted and driven new home sales to its highest level in more than a year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “New home sales have rebounded more robustly than the resale market due to a marginally greater supply of new construction. The improved demand has led to a firming of prices, which have now increased for several months in a row.”

The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.

The US housing market has been on a wild ride in the past two years: Home sales and prices soared in the recovery from the pandemic; but then as mortgage rates jumped, closings plummeted and prices started coming back to Earth.

Mortgage rates have ticked down in recent weeks, and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.67% in the week ending June 22.

Pending home sales fall in May

US pending home sales dropped more than expected in May, according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors.

The index shrank 2.7% from April, to 76.5 in May. Economists were expecting a drop of 0.5%, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv.

The pending home sales index is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts to buy a home rather than final sales, which are accounted for in the existing home sales index.

With May’s tumble and a downward revision to April’s previously steady reading, the index has now declined for three consecutive months.

Year over year, pending transactions were down 22.2%. All four US regions saw year-over-year declines in transactions.

“Despite sluggish pending contract signings, the housing market is resilient with approximately three offers for each listing,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “The lack of housing inventory continues to prevent housing demand from being fully realized.”

An index reading of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined by the NAR. By coincidence, the volume of existing home sales in 2001 fell between 5 million to 5.5 million, a range considered normal for the current US population.

Inflation remains the focus

Meanwhile, investors continued to take in Fed Chairman Powell’s comments on rate hikes.

“Two weeks ago, the Fed signaled that the projected policy rate would be 50 basis points higher than previously expected by the end of 2023, which is also half a point higher than the current rate,” said Jiayi Xu, an economist with Realtor.com. “Powell’s recent comments remarked that the very strong labor market is the main driver behind the Fed’s rate setting decisions and that there’s more restriction coming.”

While this may pose near-term upward pressure on interest rates, including for mortgage rates, she said, she expects a gradual decline that could bring rates near 6.0% by year-end.

The Fed does not set the interest rates that borrowers pay on mortgages directly, but its actions influence them. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasuries, which move based on a combination of anticipation about the Fed’s actions, what the Fed actually does and investors’ reactions. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow.

Homebuyers face headwinds

As rates have cooled over the past couple weeks, applications for mortgages have gone up, according to Mortgage Bankers Association.

“Purchase applications increased for the third consecutive week to the highest level of activity since early May but remained more than 20% lower than year ago levels,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist.

New home sales have been driving purchase activity in recent months as buyers look for alternatives to very low inventory of existing homes.

“Existing-home sales continued to be held back by a lack of for-sale inventory as many potential sellers are holding on to their lower-rate mortgages,” said Kan.

Even as rates have been trending lower the past few weeks, for much of May rates were climbing. This resulted in home buyer affordability worsening in May, according to MBA.

The national median monthly payment for purchase loan applicants increased 2.5% to $2,165 from $2,112 in April, the MBA found. It is up $268 from one year ago, a 14.1% increase.

In addition to still-high mortgage rates and housing prices, the shortage of housing supply has worsened the conditions faced by first-time home buyers, creating an especially challenging situation for those dreaming of homeownership.

“While smaller entry-level homes may not meet the criteria of a dream home, there is strong demand, but very few homes available that fit the bill,” said Xu. “Thankfully, builders are taking note of the market need and are making efforts to catch up to demand through new construction, especially of homes at lower price tiers.”

After dropping below 10% in 2022, the proportion of new homes sold that are priced under $300,000 is on an upward trajectory, Xu said.

Early estimates in May indicate that homes within this price range constituted approximately 17% of total sales, marking the highest share since December 2021, when the share was 18%.

“Despite this encouraging news, there remains an urgent need for more homes at the most affordable price points, where the shortage of available inventory is most severe,” said Xu.

Source: cnn.com

Apache is functioning normally

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates fell just a little last Friday. But last Thursday’s massive jump means they finished that week — and last month — higher than when they started them.

First thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today might again barely budge. But that could change as the hours pass.

Markets will be closed tomorrow for the Independence Day holiday. And we’ll be back on Wednesday morning. Enjoy your celebrations!

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30-year fixed 7.129% 7.158% Unchanged
Conventional 15-year fixed 6.638% 6.651% Unchanged
Conventional 20-year fixed 7.506% 7.558% Unchanged
Conventional 10-year fixed 6.997% 7.115% Unchanged
30-year fixed FHA 6.672% 7.303% Unchanged
15-year fixed FHA 6.763% 7.237% Unchanged
30-year fixed VA 6.729% 6.937% Unchanged
15-year fixed VA 6.625% 6.965% Unchanged
5/1 ARM Conventional 6.75% 7.266% Unchanged
5/1 ARM FHA 6.75% 7.532% +0.11
5/1 ARM VA 6.75% 7.532% +0.11
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Recent reporting in the financial media makes me think mortgage rates are unlikely to see any significant and sustained falls until at least the fourth (Oct.-Dec.) quarter of 2023 and probably not until 2024.

And that’s why my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time last Friday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged down to 3.82% from 3.85%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were mostly lower. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices inched up to $70.61 from $70.25 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices rose to $1,930 from $1,919 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 84 from 80 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might again hold steady or close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

Currently

To see sustained lower mortgage rates we need to see the inflation rate halving, the economy weakening, and the Federal Reserve stopping hiking general interest rates. And none of those looks likely anytime soon.

Some progress is being made on inflation. But not enough.

And the economy is showing extraordinary resilience. Last week’s gross domestic product (GDP) headline figure was 50% higher than many expected.

Meanwhile, the Fed seems highly likely to hike general interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) on Jul. 26. And there may well be at least one more increase after that in 2023.

Recession

As I’ve written before, our best hope for lower mortgage rates is a recession. That should weaken the economy, reduce inflation and perhaps cause the Fed to at least hold general rates steady.

Economists have been predicting an imminent recession for ages. And, not so long ago, I bought that line and was expecting one at any moment.

But, now, many big hitters aren’t expecting a recession until 2024. Yesterday, CNN Business listed a few of those making that prediction:

  • Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan
  • Vanguard economists
  • JPMorgan Chase economists

Of course, others disagree, as economists always do. Some think a recession will still land later this year. And others believe there will be no recession at all.

This week

There are a few reports this week that could send mortgage rates up or down a bit. But Friday’s jobs report is the one most likely to have a decisive impact.

The consensus among economists is that the report will show 240,000 new jobs created in June compared with 339,000 in May. Anything lower than 240,000 might see mortgage rates tumble, which would be great.

However, we’ve witnessed economists making similar predictions for employment several times over recent months. And, nearly every time, their forecasts have greatly underestimated the resilience of the American labor market and therefore the American economy.

Of course, they might be right this time. Let’s hope so. But I shouldn’t hold my breath if I were you.

Please read the weekend edition of this daily report for more background on what’s happening to mortgage rates.

According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.

Freddie’s Jun. 29 report put that same weekly average at 6.71%, up from the previous week’s 6.67%. But Freddie is almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.

In November, Freddie stopped including discount points in its forecasts. It has also delayed until later in the day the time at which it publishes its Thursday reports. And we now update this section on Fridays.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q2/23) and the following three quarters (Q3/23, Q4/23 and Q1/24).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on May 23 and the MBA’s on Jun. 21.

In the past, we included Freddie Mac’s forecasts. But it seems to have given up on publishing those.

Forecaster Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
Fannie Mae 6.4% 6.2%  6.0% 5.8%
MBA 6.5% 6.2%  5.8% 5.6%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:

“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”

In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.


How your mortgage interest rate is determined

Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.

Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:

  • Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
  • Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
  • Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
  • Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
  • Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
  • Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
  • Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
  • Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate

Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.

To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.

Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?

Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.

However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.

Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.

This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.

Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.

In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.

Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.

Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.

How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate

Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.

Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Here are a few tips to keep in mind:

1. Get multiple quotes

Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.

Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.

However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.

So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.

2. Compare Loan Estimates

When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.

You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:

  • Interest rate
  • Annual percentage rate (APR)
  • Monthly mortgage payment
  • Loan origination fees
  • Rate lock fees
  • Closing costs

Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.

Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.

Also pay close attention to your closing costs.

Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.

3. Negotiate your mortgage rate

You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.

Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.

You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.

And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.

Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?

Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).

Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change, unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.

Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.

With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.

Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.

In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.

Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.

How your credit score affects your mortgage rate

You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.

This is because credit history determines risk level.

Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.

For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.

Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:

  • Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
  • FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down
    payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
  • VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
  • USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score

Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.

If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.

You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.

How big of a down payment do I need?

Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.

In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.

Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:

  • Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3%
    and 5%
  • FHA loans require 3.5% down
  • VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
  • Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down

Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.

If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.

This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.

But a big down payment is not required.

For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.

Choosing the right type of home loan

No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.

The five main types of mortgages include:

Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)

Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.

The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.

Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)

Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.

Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.

ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).

For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.

Jumbo mortgage

A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.

Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.

FHA mortgage

A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.

VA mortgage

A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.

VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.

USDA mortgage

USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.

Bank statement loan

Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.

Portfolio/Non-QM loan

These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.

Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.

Choosing the right mortgage lender

The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.

Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.

Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.

Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

Source: themortgagereports.com

Apache is functioning normally

The Offer

Direct link to offer (need to be logged in)

  • You can currently receive a 30% transfer bonus when you transfer American Express Membership Rewards points to British Airways Avios. Normally you can transfer 1,000 MR points and receive 1,000 Avios, during this promotion you’ll receive 1,300

The Fine Print

  • Valid until August 31, 2023

Our Verdict


Not as good as the 40% transfer bonus last year. Full list of previous transfer bonuses below:

  • April 2 – unknown end date, 022: 40%
  • June 10th – unknown end date, 2019: 40-50% (YMMV)
  • September 16th -November 15th, 2018: 40%
  • July 17th – September 17th, 2017: 40%
  • July 13th, 2017: Transfer rate restored to 1:1
  • August 10th – October 10th, 2016: 50%
  • December 15th, 2014 – January 31st, 2015: 40%
  • October 1st, 2015: Transfer rate decreased from 1:1 to 250:200
  • October 15th – December 31st, 2013: 20%
  • April 22nd, 2013 – June 7th, 2013: 35%
  • December 3, 2012 – January 14, 2013: 30%
  • August 28th, 2012 – September 27th, 2012: 40%
  • March 15, 2012 – May 31, 2012: 50%
  • March 1, 2012 – March 31, 2012: 50%
  • November 28, 2011 – January 31, 2012: 30%
  • June 1, 2011 – July 31, 2011: 50%
  • February 2, 2011 – March 31, 2011: 40%
  • November 2, 2010 – December 31, 2010: 30%
  • April 1 – June 30, 2010: 20% (only for Platinum & Centurion cardholders)

You can find a complete list of transfer bonuses by clicking here.

Source: doctorofcredit.com

Apache is functioning normally

The median sales price of a Southern California home rose year-over-year for the first time since the summer of 2007, according to DataQuick.

Last month, the median price paid for a SoCal home or condo was $289,000, up 1.4 percent from November and four percent from the $278,000 price tag seen a year earlier.

However, it remains 42.8 percent below the peak Southland median of $505,000 seen in early and mid-2007, leaving scores of homeowners underwater.

“Several forces have pulled the region’s median sale price out of its nose dive and given it lift,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president, in a release. “We’ve seen the re-selling of foreclosed homes fall off its peak in newer lower-cost inland areas, while at the same time sales have started to pick up in some of the more established expensive areas.”

Foreclosure resales accounted for 39.6 percent of sales last month, down from 53.5 percent in December 2008.

“That simple shift in what’s selling, and what’s not selling, puts upward pressure on the median. That’s statistical. But we’ve also seen price floors, however temporary, form in many areas recently as the foreclosure inventory dwindled and buyers took advantage of lower prices, lower mortgage rates and tax credits. A meaningful comeback in the jumbo loan market would provide another big boost to the pricier areas.”

Jumbo financing was tied to 16.7 percent of all home purchase loans last month, the highest level since January 2008, but nowhere close to the near-40 percent share seen before the mortgage crisis got underway.

FHA loans grabbed a 39.6 percent share, while cash-buying accounted for 24.9 percent of December sales.

A total of 22,328 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month, up 16.4 percent from November and 12.1 percent from the 19,926 sold in December 2008.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com