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Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Even with mortgage rates hovering around 15-year highs, home prices in California edged higher for the fourth consecutive month in May, according to the latest data from the California Association of Realtors.

The median single-family home price in the Golden State last month was $836,110, roughly $25,000 higher than in April and $100,000 above February’s average, data shows.

The San Francisco Bay Area ($1,300,000), Central Coast ($1,000,000) and Southern California ($800,000) continue to be the priciest, while the Far North region ($380,000) is the most affordable, CAR said.

Home prices are still well below the all-time high recorded in May 2022 when the average California single-family home cost $893,200.

Average Single-Family Home Prices in California

Region May 2023 April 2023 May 2022
Statewide $836,110 $811,950 $893,200
Condo/Townhomes $635,000 $634,000 $675,000
Los Angeles Metro $765,000 $740,000 $805,000
Central Coast $1,000,000 $1,020,000 $995,000
Central Valley $485,000 $463,000 $510,000
Far North $380,000 $385,000 $425,000
Inland Empire $574,990 $565,000 $596,000
San Francisco Bay Area $1,300,000 $1,250,000 $1,465,000
Southern California $800,000 $785,000 $845,000
California Association of Realtors

Additionally, the number of homes under contract in California rose by nearly ten percent in May after dipping in April and March.

This is the ‘most expensive’ neighborhood in California, study says

After an initial spike in the lead-up to Congress’s debate over the debt ceiling, mortgage rates have hovered in the high 6% range. The Fed has already signaled as many as two more rate hikes this year to tame inflation.

But regardless of where interest rates go in the short term, or even long-term, Wei says the underlying reason home prices move higher in California comes down to simple supply and demand.

“The tight supply is really constraining,” he says. “People are not putting their houses on the market and, of course, we’re just not building fast enough.”

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Source: ktla.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Despite its shockingly low ratings, The Idol has managed to claim a top spot as one of the most popular newly released TV shows.

The provocative HBO series, which airs on Sundays at 9:00 p.m. ET/PT on HBO, has been stained with controversy even before it premiered. From production drama to script rewrites, the show had quite a few obstacles to overcome before making its way on our screens.

While many find The Idol scenes hard to watch, there’s one thing we can all agree on – that mansion featured on the show is undoubtedly stunning. The palatial estate, which serves as Jocelyn’s home base is actually The Weeknd’s real-life home, and he spent an insane amount of money on it.

Photo credit: Eddy Chen/HBO

The Idol’s controversial debut

Hitmaker Abel Tesfaye, best known as The Weekend, collaborated with Euphoria creator Sam Levinson to write, create, and produce the show.

Tesfaye stars as Tedros, a cult leader who develops a toxic romance with pop star Jocelyn, played by Lily-Rose Depp. The series marks Tesfaye’s first major acting role, after appearing briefly (as himself) in Josh Safdie’s Uncut Gems in 2019.

Photo credit: Eddy Chen/HBO

Before The Idol’s press tour began, Rolling Stone wrote an exposé detailing a toxic production set, which led to director Amy Seimetz’s departure. The editorial piece called the show “twisted, torture porn”. Seimetz was later replaced by Levinson, who rewrote the show almost completely. 

“It was like any rape fantasy that any toxic man would have in the show — and then the woman comes back for more because it makes her music better,” one source told the publication.

Meanwhile, Depp has defended the show several times in interviews, saying she never felt objectified or exploited despite being half-naked in scenes.

Photo credit: Eddy Chen/HBO

Showrunners Levinson and Tesfaye maintain that the public backlash was expected all along.

​​”We’re playing with genres with this show, we’re doing exactly what we wanted to do,” Tesfaye told People. “And none of this is a surprise.”

How The Weeknd’s $70 million mansion ended up playing the part of Jocelyn’s house on The Idol

The Blinding Lights singer dropped a whopping $70 million for his 33,000-square-foot Bel Air mansion back in 2021.

It was the largest, most expensive real estate deal in Los Angeles that closed that year, earning Tesfaye a spot in our list of the most expensive celebrity homes in recent history.

We won’t overwhelm you with the never-ending list of amenities the star’s mansion packs between its walls, but you can read all about The Weeknd’s extravagant property here.

At the time of purchase, there were no plans of using the mansion as a filming set. But, as production was shaken up, they needed a quick resolution.

“If we were going to reshoot from the beginning, I knew it had to be for less money. Sitting in Abel’s house, looking around at the 40,000 square feet, I said, ‘It’s stunning here—you can’t buy production design like this. What if we shoot it here?’” Levinson told GQ.

The megamansion came complete with luxurious amenities, expansive grounds, and gorgeous views, making it the perfect shooting venue.

There was little done to change the interiors and the singer’s personal home decor can be seen throughout the episodes. According to Levinson, he and his wife “essentially moved into Tesfaye’s house” during filming, while The Weeknd moved out to protect himself from blurring the lines between fiction and reality.

With the mounting negative feedback, the show’s fate for a second season remains unclear. Recent reports indicate that the series will conclude earlier than its initially planned six-episode runtime, wrapping up at the end of the fifth episode.

Several outlets claimed, however, that Levinson’s iteration has always been billed as a five-episode series, so it remains to be seen if Lily-Rose Depp, The Weeknd, and Jocelyn’s house return to our screens for a second season.

More stories you might like

A recap of all the fab apartments in ‘And Just Like That…’ 

Hampsie, Lady Phoebe’s country house in ‘You’ & where to find it in real life

Tony Soprano’s house is a real-life home in New Jersey — and the pool and driveway look awfully familiar

Source: fancypantshomes.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Mortgage rates have increased a little over the past twenty-four hours thanks to an impending long-term government bond auction this afternoon.

It’s important to keep an eye on that event as we move towards the end of the trading day. Read on for more details.

Where are mortgage rates going?              

Rates see modest increase

Mortgage rates are moving slightly higher from where they were at the start of the week.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note briefly touched 3.00% again today as investors get antsy ahead of a $25 billion 10-year Treasury auction.

We’re also seeing the market affected by President Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal.

The expectation here is for a tighter global oil supply, leading to higher prices.

That inflation pressure could play a part in forcing the Federal Reserve to increase rates at a faster pace in 2018 than expected.

Mortgage rates aren’t directly set by the federal funds rate, but the word out from the Fed certainly plays a part in which way rates move.

The more likely it looks like the Fed will raise the federal funds rate, the more upward pressure we will see on mortgage rates.

Rate/Float Recommendation   

Locking now is likely the smart move      

Looking at the market right now, it seems as though mortgage rates will continue to gradually move higher as 2018 unfolds. Given that expectation, we think it’s wise for most borrowers to lock now.

Learn what you can do to get the best interest rate possible.  

Today’s economic data: 

PPI-FD   

Producer prices rose 0.1% month over month in April, putting them at 2.6% year over year.

Producer prices less food and energy rose 0.2% month over month, bringing it to 2.3% year over year.

Producer prices less food, energy, and trade services ticked up 0.1% month over month, making it 2.5% year over year.

10-Yr Note Auction  

Fedspeak  

  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic at 1:15pm

Notable events this week: 

Monday:  

Tuesday:     

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
  • JOLTS

Wednesday:        

  • PPI-FD
  • 10-Yr Note Auction
  • Fedspeak

Thursday:     

  • Consumer Price Index
  • Jobless Claims
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

Friday:          

  • Fedspeak
  • Consumer Sentiment

*Terms and conditions apply.

Carter Wessman

Carter Wessman is originally from the charming town of Norfolk, Massachusetts. When he isn’t busy writing about mortgage related topics, you can find him playing table tennis, or jamming on his bass guitar.

Source: totalmortgage.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Homebuilder confidence has been rising over the past few months, and housing starts rose 21.7% from April. Strong new home sales have gotten the new construction industry back on track to deliver much-needed inventory for this undersupplied market. They now supply about 30% of the residential sales market.

“This spring shopping season has buyers searching for listings and affordability – both of which can be found in new construction – with many builders offering incentives and fresh inventory,” said Zillow Senior Economist Nicole Bachaud in a statement. “This has brought a resurgence to the new construction industry with sales rising and home builder confidence climbing.’

The new home market stands in contrast to the existing re-sales market, which has sputtered due to record-low inventory and high listing prices. Still, Zillow economists said, there are signs that the existing home sales market might be growing.

The median sales price of new homes sold in May 2023 was $416,300 versus $396,100 for existing home sales. The average sales price for new homes was $487,300.

The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 428,000. This represents a supply of 6.7 months at the current sales rate.

Demand has been resilient as people grow accustomed to interest rates in the 6%-7% range, and existing inventory remains tight, economists said. These factors are making new homes more visible on the market, while homeowners looking to trade up are attracted by new floor plans, more technology, as well as higher efficiency, noted George Ratiu, chief economist at Keeping Current Matters.

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Homebuilder confidence has been rising over the past few months, and housing starts rose 21.7% from April. Strong new home sales have gotten the new construction industry back on track to deliver much-needed inventory for this undersupplied market. They now supply about 30% of the residential sales market.

“This spring shopping season has buyers searching for listings and affordability – both of which can be found in new construction – with many builders offering incentives and fresh inventory,” said Zillow Senior Economist Nicole Bachaud in a statement. “This has brought a resurgence to the new construction industry with sales rising and home builder confidence climbing.’

The new home market stands in contrast to the existing re-sales market, which has sputtered due to record-low inventory and high listing prices. Still, Zillow economists said, there are signs that the existing home sales market might be growing.

The median sales price of new homes sold in May 2023 was $416,300 versus $396,100 for existing home sales. The average sales price for new homes was $487,300.

The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 428,000. This represents a supply of 6.7 months at the current sales rate.

Demand has been resilient as people grow accustomed to interest rates in the 6%-7% range, and existing inventory remains tight, economists said. These factors are making new homes more visible on the market, while homeowners looking to trade up are attracted by new floor plans, more technology, as well as higher efficiency, noted George Ratiu, chief economist at Keeping Current Matters.

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Mortgage rates are moving higher thanks to some strong economic data over the past few days. If you’re considering buying a home or refinancing your current mortgage, we strongly recommend that you take action sooner rather than later to avoid the risk of locking in a higher rate. Read on for more details.

Where are mortgage rates going?     

Rates spike in Freddie Mac PMMS

A sell-off in the bond market this week has put some upward pressure on mortgage rates.

This is evident in today’s Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which has the average rate on a 30-year fixed up to a seven-year high. Here are the numbers:

  • The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage moved up six basis points to 4.61% (0.4 points)
  • The average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose seven basis points to 4.08% (0.4 points)
  • The average rate on a 5/1-year adjustable rate mortgage ticked up five basis points to 3.82% (0.3 points)

Here is what Freddie Mac’s Economic and Housing Research Group had to say about rates this week:

“After plateauing in recent weeks, mortgage rates reversed course and reached a new high last seen eight years ago.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up to 4.61 percent, which matches the highest level since May 19, 2011.

Healthy consumer spending and higher commodity prices spooked the bond markets and led to higher mortgage rates over the past week. Not only are buyers facing higher borrowing costs, gas prices are currently at four-year highs just as we enter the important peak home sales season.

While this year’s higher mortgage rates have not caused much of a ripple in the strong demand levels for buying a home seen in most markets, inflationary pressures and the prospect of rates approaching 5 percent could begin to hit the psyche of some prospective buyers.”

It’s always important to note that the data for the survey is mostly collected early on in the week and therefore doesn’t necessarily reflect current market conditions.

That being said, we’ve seen rates stay fairly level since mid-day on Tuesday, so the PMMS isn’t far off what what national averages currently are.

Rate/Float Recommendation    

Lock before rates move even higher     

With mortgage rates heading higher it makes sense that you’ll want to lock in a rate soon. The longer you wait, the more likely it is that you’ll wind up locking in a higher rate.

Of course, everyone’s situation has its own unique factors, which is why it’s so incredibly important to go discuss your options with an experienced mortgage professional.

Learn what you can do to get the best interest rate possible.  

Today’s economic data:               

Jobless Claims 

Applications filed for U.S. unemployment benefits for the week of 5/12/18 rose 11,000 from the previous week to 222,000. That puts the four-week moving average at 213,250.

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey 

The Philly Fed General Business Conditions Index surged up to a 34.4 in May. With new orders up to a 45-year high, this is one of the most robust reports to date.

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 

  • This report is currently being delayed at the source

Fedspeak 

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at 10:45am
  • Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan at 1:30pm

Notable events this week:     

Monday:  

Tuesday:   

  • Retail Sales
  • Empire State Mfg Survey
  • Business Inventories
  • Housing Market Index

Wednesday:        

  • Housing Starts
  • Fedspeak
  • Industrial Production
  • Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report

Thursday:     

  • Jobless Claims
  • Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
  • Fedspeak

Friday:          

*Terms and conditions apply.

Carter Wessman

Carter Wessman is originally from the charming town of Norfolk, Massachusetts. When he isn’t busy writing about mortgage related topics, you can find him playing table tennis, or jamming on his bass guitar.

Source: totalmortgage.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Case in point: Today we have 69,000 new homes completed and ready to sell, as shown below. The builders have managed their backlog nicely to ensure this data line doesn’t explode higher on them like we saw in 2008. An average number would be around 80,000 homes for sale, so we are returning to normal.

 

But a bigger story here is that the builders’ biggest competition isn’t other builders — it’s the number of existing homes on the market. Existing homes are cheaper and have a geographical advantage because they’re all over the map. In 2007, we had more than 4 million total active listings, which was too much supply for the builders to compete effectively. Today, the total number of active listings according to NAR is 1.080 million, and that number is down year over year.

NAR total active listings data going back to 1982:

This explains why the builders and new homes are doing better than the existing home sales market, which deals with higher mortgage rates and low active listings. Some people prefer something other than the current active existing inventory. This means new homes — with all the bells and whistles — can peel some buyers from the existing home sales market, especially if they pay down mortgage rates.

Now on to the report.

From Census:

New Home Sales: Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.2 percent (±12.8 percent)* above the revised April rate of 680,000 and is 20.0 percent (±15.5 percent) above the May 2022 estimate of 636,000.

As we can see in the chart below, new home sales aren’t booming like what we saw at the peak of 2005 but are getting back to trend sales growth from the bottom we saw when rates got 5% in 2018. New home sales can be wild monthly, so if we see some negative revisions to this report, just remember: it’s the trend that matters, and it’s gotten much better here.

Also, in the chart below, we can all agree it isn’t housing 2005 or housing 2008 with new home sales.

For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 428,000. This represents a supply of 6.7 months at the current sales rate.

As home sales improve, the builders are winding down their monthly supply, which is good for the economy. I have a straightforward model for when the homebuilders will start issuing new permits with some kick. My rule of thumb for anticipating builder behavior is based on the three-month supply average. This has nothing to do with the existing home sales market — this monthly supply data only applies to the new home sales market and the current level of 6.7 months.

Housing permits will follow since this data line improves as new home sales keep growing. The model below has been my bread and butter for years:

  • When supply is 4.3 months and below, this is an excellent market for builders.
  • When supply is 4.4-6.4 months, this is just an OK market for builders. They will build as long as new home sales are growing.
  • When supply is 6.5 months and above, the builders will pull back on construction 

The current data has seen significant improvement, as the chart below shows. Also, the only bubble crash this year has been in cancellation rates, not existing home sales prices.


Also, it’s vital to break down the monthly supply data into different supply categories.

  • 1.1 months of the supply are homes completed and ready for sale, about 69,000 homes
  • 4.1 months of the supply are homes that are still under construction, about 259,000 homes
  • 1.6 months of the supply are homes that haven’t started yet, about 100,000 homes

This is a solid report today as the builders are moving products and making deals to get buyers in. I love it. 

Housing has always been used as an indicator of the economy. As the builder confidence data rose, many pessimists ignored it because they assumed it was a dead-cat bounce. Now that we are almost to July 4, 2023, it’s a wake-up call. I ask my bearish friends who use housing as a leading indicator going into recession and out what they believe the data is telling them now. So far, I haven’t heard back.

Home Builder Confidence Index

The builder’s confidence index is gold because the builders are thinking about making money, whereas some indexes might have a political or ideological twist. I track the builders’ confidence and the 10-year yield because these two are essential for housing. This report is a plus for the economy because construction worker employment risk will decrease if sales continue to higher and mortgage rates can fall.

This article aims to show how much progress we have made in this sector and why it’s happening. The report today is a positive story for the U.S. Hopefully, this trend continues to go higher because the best way to deal with inflation is always with supply, not demand destruction. Demand destruction is a short-term fix, but supply needs to grow over time to beat inflation. 

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Last month’s sales of newly constructed single-family homes rose to the highest level since February 2022. The report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development put the seasonally adjusted annual rate for May at 763,000 units, an increase of 12.2 percent compared to the April. That rate of 680,000 was revised down from an original estimate of 683,000 units. On a non-adjusted basis, there were 73,000 homes sold during the month, up from 60,000 in April.

Analysts had expected a much smaller number. Those polled by Econoday had a consensus estimate of 667,000 while Trading Economics had a forecast of 675,000 units.

The increase in sales, however, was a negative for new home inventory. At the end of the reporting period, there were 428,000 homes available for sale, down 4,000 from the prior month. This was a 6.7-month supply at the current sales pace. Only 69,000 of these units are ready for occupancy.

Economist Robert Dietz of the National Association of Home Builders commented, “Demand for new homes is strengthening because of a lack of existing home inventory. There is only a 3-month’ supply of existing single-family homes on the market. New home inventory was 31 percent of total inventory in May. Historically it is typically 10 percent to 15 percent. As a result, the pace of resales is down 20 percent from a year ago, while the rate of new home sales is up 20 percent from a year ago.

Thus far in 2023, there have been 308,000 new homes sold, down from 323,000 in the first five months of 2022. This is a decline of 4.7 percent.

There was more good news for potential homebuyers. The median price of homes sold during the month was $416,300, significantly lower than the $450,700 in May 2022.  The average price fell from $521,500 to $487,300.

Dietz continued, “While builders continue to grapple with elevated construction costs, an encouraging sign is a big gain in home sales priced in the $200,000 to $300,000 price range. In May 2022, just 5,000 homes sold in this range. That total increased to 12,000 in May 2023.

Sales during the month rose in all four major regions and annual sales were higher in three of them. In the Northeast, in fact, they soared 110.5 percent year-over-year and rose 17.6 percent for the month. The Midwest saw a monthly increase of 4.1 percent and a 40.0 percent gain compared to the prior May. The South saw sales up 11.3 percent for the month and 22.0 percent for the year. While the West saw an increase of 17.4 percent from April, annual sales were lower by 0.6 percent.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

After a winter of dire housing market forecasts, the housing market regained its footing this spring, with home prices rising month-over-month for the third consecutive month in April, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which was released Tuesday. These increases came after seven consecutive months of decline.

“The index tracks price changes from the months of February, March, and April of 2023, and spotlights a growing number of buyers coming to terms with higher rates and looking for a path toward homeownership,” George Ratiu, the chief economist at Keeping Current Matters, said in a statement. “Inflation has been a headlining concern for most consumers over the past year, even as price growth had moderated noticeably. At the same time, households have seen interest rates push borrowing costs higher across the board for credit cards, auto loans, and home mortgages. At the same time, the official end of the pandemic signaled a return toward a new normal, encouraging Americans to embrace their next stage of life.”

On a monthly basis, the national index was up 1.3% in April. However, on a year-over-year basis, the index was down 0.2%, compared to an annual gain of 0.7% in March.

“The U.S. housing market continued to strengthen in April 2023,” Craig Lazzara, the managing director at S&P DJI, said in a statement. “Home prices peaked in June 2022, declined until January 2023, and then began to recover.”

Just like in March, both the 10-city and 20-city composite price indexes posted annual declines but monthly gains. For the 20-city composite, after seasonal adjustment, 17 out of the 20 cities reported lower prices in the year ending April 2023 versus the year ending March 2023. Boston, San Francisco and Cleveland all showed slight increases at 0.1%, 0.1%, and 0.9%, respectively.

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through April 2023

Miami topped the list yet again with the highest annual price gain at 5.2%, with Chicago (4.1%) and Atlanta (3.5%), rounding out the top three.

“At the other end of the scale, however, the worst eight performers are all in the Mountain or Pacific time zones, with Seattle (-12.4%) and San Francisco (-11.1%) at the bottom,” Lazzara said. “The Southeast (+3.6%) continues as the country’s strongest region, while the West (-6.9%) remains the weakest.”

Overall, the 20-city index was down 1.7% on an annual basis, but up 1.7% on a monthly basis, while the 10-city index fell 1.2% year-over-year and rose 1.7% month-over-month.

“If I were trying to make a case that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 had definitively ended in January 2023, April’s data would bolster my argument,” Lazzara said. “Whether we see further support for that view in coming months will depend on the how well the market navigates the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness.”

Source: housingwire.com