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There’s an obvious trend toward higher rates as far as Treasury yields are concerned. This goes all the way back to August. Treasury yields and mortgage rates historically correlate quite well. But mortgage rates have almost completely ignored that correlation recently. In fact, most of the 2nd half of 2020 saw mortgage rates fall while Treasury yields continued higher. The chart above doesn’t tell the whole story because it uses a separate y-axis for each line. Here’s the same time frame with mortgage rates and 10yr yields on the same axis: That still doesn’t tell us much although we can certainly see different patterns. Here’s another look at the same two rates on the same axis, but this time we’re charting the CHANGE since Jan 1, 2020. This one probably tells the story better than the rest