If you or someone you know has dealt with a collection agency, you know how trying it can be. Debt collection agencies have a long history of harassment and illegal practices. Can a collection agency report to a credit bureau without notifying you? The answer might not be that simple. Knowing illegal debt collection practices can help identify when you’re being treated unfairly.
The Law Protects You
The Fair Debt Collection Practices Act is a federal law that protects consumers against certain unfair collection practices. It applies to only external or third-party debt collectors and only for personal debts. It does not come into play for creditors collecting their own debts. State laws may provide additional protection.
In its annual report to Congress about debt collection complaints, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau described collection complaints received by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).
In 2019, the FTC received 75,200 complaints about debt collectors—down from 84,500 in 2018. A complaint does not mean a law has been broken, and some complaints may result from overseas debt collection scammers who harass consumers.
If the FTC finds the complaint to be valid, the agency can ban parties from participating in debt collection. The FTC keeps an up-to-date list of all prohibited parties.
A collection account can significantly affect credit score. If you’ve been contacted by a collector and are worried your credit is being hurt, it might be a good idea to check your credit scores to see if anything has changed.
FTC 2019 Annual Report: Types of Debt Collection Complaints Reported by Consumers
Every year the FTC releases a report discussing the six main types of debt collection complaints from consumers. Understanding these complaints gives you a better idea of your rights as a consumer. If you’ve experienced any of these types of actions from a debt collection agency, you can report them to the FTC.
Before we delve in, a quick note: keep in mind that state laws can vary. So whenever we mention the law, we’re specifically referring to the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act (FDCPA).
1. Attempts to Collect a Debt Not Owed
Percentage of complaints: 45% in 2019
The law: If you don’t think the debt belongs to you, you can send a request in writing within 30 days of receiving the initial notice that you want verification of the debt. You can also request that the debt collector no longer contact you. You may consider making the request in writing so you have proof of the request
Often, this issue arises after identity theft occurs. That’s why it’s essential to keep an eye on your credit report, so you can spot these issues early.
2. Failure to Provide Written Notification of Debt
Percentage of complaints: 18% in 2019
The law: Within five days of initially contacting you, the collector must send written notice of the debt and include:
The amount of the debt
The name of the original creditor to whom the debt is owed
A statement describing your right to dispute the debt
You can file a complaint with the FTC if you believe the debt collector never sent written notice. Most individuals complaining about written notifications (65%) say they didn’t receive adequate information to identify and confirm their ownership of the debt. Additionally, some individuals (30%) complain that their written notice never included their right to dispute the debt.
3. Communication Tactics
Percentage of complaints: 12% in 2019
The law: Collectors are not allowed to call repeatedly just to harass you. However, there is no specific number of calls specified in the FDCPA limiting calls they can make within a given period. That’s for the courts to decide. If you think a debt collector is calling too often, start keeping a record of the time of the call and any messages left. Collectors also may not call before 8 a.m. or after 9 p.m. unless you’ve given them permission or at times you’ve told them are inconvenient.
The majority of complaints surrounding communication tactics are about repeated phone calls (55%), foul or abusive language (12%) or calls outside of the allotted times (5%).
4. Negative or Legal Action, or Threats of It
Percentage of complaints: 12% in 2019
The law: Collectors can’t threaten a lawsuit, criminal prosecution, wage garnishment, jail time, or a poor credit rating unless they have the legal authority to do so and intend to do so.
The most common complaints in this category in 2019were:
Threats or suggestions that a consumer’s credit history would be damaged (34%)
Threats to sue on old debt (28%)
Threats to arrest or jail consumers for not paying the debt (14%)
Lawsuits without proper notification (9%)
Attempts or successful seizures of property (8%)
Attempts or successful collection of exempt funds, such as unemployment benefits or child support (5%)
Lawsuits filed in a different state from where the consumer signed the contract or currently lives (2%)
Threats of turning the consumer in to immigration officials or of deportation (0.2%)
These threats are often in violation of the FDCPA. Usually, collectors must take you to court and win before they can take these kinds of actions—if they even have the right in the first place.
5. False Statements or Representations
Percentage of complaints: 11% in 2019
The law: Collectors can’t use false statements or representations to try to force consumers to cooperate, including:
Claiming to be affiliated with the U.S. government or any state
Purporting to be a law enforcement official or an attorney
Stating that failure to pay will result in imprisonment, seizure of property, garnishment of wages, or other false claims
Implying the consumer committed a crime
These claims are in violation of the FDCPA to make if they are untrue. Sometimes, collectors may be allowed to make a claim if they have taken the consumer to court and received a court-approved judgment.
In 2019, the majority of complaints in this category were for:
Attempts to collect the wrong amount (74%)
Impersonations of an attorney, law enforcement official, or government official (17%)
False statements that the consumer committed a crime by not paying the debt (6%)
Suggestions that the consumer should not respond to a lawsuit (3%)
6. Threats to Contact Someone or Share Information Improperly
Percentage of complaints: 3% in 2019
The law: Collectors can call third parties such as family members, neighbors, friends, or co-workers only once to locate the debtor. When they do, they are not allowed to reveal the debt.. They can only make contact again under specific circumstances.
In 2019, the majority of complaints in this category were for debt collectors who contacted:
A third party about the debt (53%)
An employer (28%)
The consumer after being asked not to do so (18%)
The consumer directly when they were informed to speak with only the consumer’s attorney (2%)
Debt Collection Laws
The federal Fair Debt Collection Practices Act (FDCPA) limits what debt collectors can do and say when attempting to collect a debt. This law covers mortgages, credit cards, medical debts, and any other debt for personal, family, or household purposes.
Unfortunately, the FDCPA doesn’t cover business debt or debt that is owed to the original creditor rather than a collection agency.
As stated earlier, time and place, harassment, and representation are all factored into this federal act. Debt collectors cannot contact you in an unusual place or at a time they know is inconvenient.
Additionally, if collectors are aware you have sought legal representation for the matter, they must immediately stop direct communication with you and, instead, contact your attorney, except for a few exceptions.
Can a Debt Transfer Hands?
Many people ask, “If a debt is sold to another company do I have to pay?” Once your debt is transferred, you owe the money to the current company rather than the original creditor. However, the new collector must still adhere to all the regular debt collection laws. In addition, the company cannot add interest you didn’t agree to or change any other terms of your original contract.
So, when does this happen? Can collection agencies buy from other collection agencies? Yes. Once your debt crosses a threshold that indicates it’s less likely to be paid, your original creditor will send it to a collection agency. After some time, the collection agency might sell your debt to a debt buyer.
If you do choose to pay off your debt, always make sure you pay the party currently holding your debt.
The Fair Credit Reporting Act
Another federal law is the Fair Credit Reporting Act. It covers certain financial aspects, including debt being collected and reported on your credit report.
This law protects consumers from unfair, deceptive, or abusive acts or practices by collection agencies or creditors.
How to Get Help
If you think a debt collector or collection agency has broken the law while trying to collect a debt, you can:
Complain to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and your state attorney general
Contact a consumer law attorney — you might be entitled to damages and/or attorney’s fees
Whenever you’re dealing with debt, it’s smart to review your credit reports for accuracy, because errors can unnecessarily damage your credit standing. Should the worst case happen, there are ways to dispute credit report errors.
If you’re ready to improve your credit score, you can begin the process of credit repair. Debt sent to a collections agency doesn’t have to ruin your financial life—you can work to fix your credit report with credit repair. ExtraCredit is offering an exclusive discount to one of the leaders in credit repair, so sign up today.
2008 & 2018 lenders: ghosts in the machine; warehouse, pre-approval, DPA, manufactured housing, marketing products
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2008 & 2018 lenders: ghosts in the machine; warehouse, pre-approval, DPA, manufactured housing, marketing products
By: Rob Chrisman
Wed, Aug 2 2023, 8:26 AM
“If you have no interest in banking, you are not a loan.” (Best said out loud to a 6th grader.) Cutting edge humor aside, this morning I head to Orlando for the FAMP event, in a state where there are a total of 186 banks operating with 4162 branches. Some of the conversation will be about Freddie Mac earning $2.9 billion in the 2nd quarter (how’d your company do?). Banks… Last Friday we saw something we haven’t seen for a while: a bank closure. “Heartland Tri-State Bank of Elkhart, Kansas, was closed by the Kansas Office of the State Bank Commissioner, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver… the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Dream First Bank, National Association, of Syracuse, Kansas…” While we’re on Agency and government news, the Federal Reserve’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey found that banks have tightened credit standards for both business and consumer clients, and they expect to tighten further through the rest of the year. “…a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook, an expected deterioration in collateral values, and an expected deterioration in credit quality of [commercial real estate] and other loans.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and is sponsored by Candor. Candor’s patented automated underwriting decision engine, CogniTech, is a state-of-the-art, 100 percent machine platform that can handle infinite loan scenarios. Listen to an interview with Polunsky Beitel Green attorney Andy Duane on recent capital rules plans changes by U.S. bank regulators.)
Lender and broker software, products, and services
In 2022, Americans spent an average of $6,000 on engagement rings to demonstrate lifelong commitment to their partners. Just as the act of proposing with a ring symbolizes a promise, SimpleNexus, an nCino company, also seeks to engage prospective homebuyers with the promise of an intuitive, modern home financing experience. A single-sign mobile app gives borrowers the convenience of managing their mortgage loan from anywhere, with a rich feature set that allows them to submit an application, scan and upload documents, eSign disclosures, and attend virtual eClosings. What’s more, built-in messaging and notification features foster meaningful connections between lenders, borrowers, and their real estate agents. See how SimpleNexus can put your organization and your borrowers on the path to a future filled with security and prosperity. Schedule a demo today.
Click links, ask questions later. The most common attack vector for a cyberattack is the human element. It’s what phishing emails, phone calls and text messages all have in common. Yet while it’s the weakest link, the human element could be your organization’s greatest prevention layer if trained correctly. In an industry that incentivizes people based on sales goals, every mortgage lead has bottom line potential. And in the current market, it’s only human to go after leads without stopping to consider their legitimacy. But recent data shows just how risky clicking without thinking can be. According to ISACA, in 2022 social engineering (tricking humans) was the #1 attack vector, and even the best teams are vulnerable. Learn how to do a better job at testing and training your team to identify legitimate leads. Talk to Richey May’s cybersecurity experts for help assessing and defining your cybersecurity training needs.
“Attention Mortgage Technology Companies! Discover the secrets to thriving in this competitive market with our free white paper, tailored specifically for you. Written by Seroka Brand Development, the mortgage industry’s leading marketing and public relations company, this exclusive guide reveals top marketing and PR strategies for 2023. As the industry faces its current set of challenges, effective yet cost-conscious marketing is more crucial than ever for companies like yours, competing for every opportunity. Learn six impactful ways to reach your target market and secure success through the rest of 2023 and beyond. Don’t miss out on this invaluable resource: download your FREE white paper now.”
“AFR Wholesale® (AFR) is teaming up with financing experts from Fannie Mae for the next session of our Why Wait Live Webinar Series! Please join us Wednesday, August 9th at 2 PM EST, where we will be highlighting what you need to know about manufactured home financing. AFR has been a leading expert in manufactured homes for over 25 years. With this added knowledge and proven experience, we’ll be an extension of your team to help the prospects in your portfolio to become borrowers. Over this series, AFR has been discussing affordable financing solutions that together will help us provide homeownership opportunities to more families. Register Today! This is a live webinar, and a recording will not be provided. Sign up today and don’t miss it! If you are currently a partner of AFR, start utilizing these programs right away! Contact AFR by going to afrwholesale.com, email [email protected] or call 1-800-375-6071.”
“Why are some lenders and LOs thriving in this market? Because they know there are still 1st-time buyers and people seeking DPA! Stairs Financial aggregates DPA information and matches homebuyers, often CRA-eligible, to lenders/programs on our platform to help lenders create customers for life. Through Stairs, borrowers are educated about loan programs and terms to better understand their loan options before connecting with our lender network. Stairs is launching in Texas and quickly expanding nationwide with licenses in 40 states. We’re partnering with national, regional, and local lenders in every market to ensure every aspiring homeowner gets the help they need. By seamlessly connecting to your PPE, Stairs can show borrowers your rates, loan terms, and DPA program options. Further, we can deliver mortgage leads to your CRM or lead management system. If your firm wants to help more 1st-time buyers achieve their dream of homeownership, contact Mike Romano.”
“This seems too good to be true” is what we hear pretty often when it comes to QuickQual. Lucky for you, it is true. Loan officers issue QuickQuals right from within the LOS and give borrowers and Realtors the ability to run payments and update pre-approval letters within guardrails you set. Check out QuickQual by LenderLogix and they’ll text a demo right to your phone!
Warehouse/liquidity programs
If you’re heading to California for Western Secondary, carve out time to meet with the team from Flagstar Bank. At a time when banks are downsizing or leaving the warehouse business altogether, Flagstar remains firmly committed to the mortgage space. They’re the second largest warehouse lender with $119 billion in assets, offering the strength, stability, and best-in-class service you’ve been looking for. Flagstar warehouses most loan types, including conventional, non-QM, and construction, and offers MSR, servicer advance, and EBO financing solutions. Their warehouse platform is flexible enough for 400+ warehouse clients of all sizes to fund quickly and easily. While you’re at the conference, talk to Flagstar about their experienced Specialized Mortgage Banking Solutions team to find out if they can help streamline operations and provide greater value for cash balances. With 35 years of experience, Flagstar is a trusted lending partner ready to unlock a world of opportunities for your business. Contact Jeff Neufeld or Patti Robins today to discuss what Flagstar can do for you.
“If you’re attending the California MBA Western Secondary Market Conference in Dana Point, make sure to include Axos Bank’s Warehouse Lending Team in your agenda. Our team will be available to discuss strategies and showcase how our diverse array of Agency, Jumbo, and Non-QM products can provide you with the flexibility and liquidity needed to become a top producer in today’s market. With our expanded portfolio programs and extended cutoff times (6:15 p.m. ET), achieving success has never been easier. To secure a meeting time, simply reach out to Eric Nelepovitz and Justin Castillo via email, or if you have any questions, feel free to contact the Warehouse Lending team at 888-764-7080. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to elevate your business to the next level.”
The only thing constant is change
Independent mortgage banks and credit unions aren’t the only entities who originate residential loans. Banks have been in the news!
Grizzled industry vet Ken Sonner, showing his age, noted, “The ‘Banc of California buying PacWest’ deal is very interesting. A $10BB bank tries to swallow a $40BB bank? Kinda like GreenPoint buying Headlands.” Don’t forget that Norwest bought Wells Fargo but kept Wells’ name.
And then there’s this story: “Donald Trump’s business empire faced a potential crisis after he left the White House and his longtime accounting firm warned not to rely on his past financial statements. But Axos Bank, an online-only financial firm headquartered in San Diego, soon agreed to loan him $225 million, stabilizing his finances.”
In general, do you think anything is permanent in residential lending? How many of 2008’s top 20 are still in the game? Wells Fargo, Chase, Bank of America, Countrywide Financial, Citi, Residential Capital LLC, Wachovia, SunTrust Mortgage, US Bank Home Mortgage, PHH Mortgage, Washington Mutual, Taylor, Bean, & Whitaker, Flagstar Bank, AmTrust Bank, National City Mortgage, ING Bank, BB&T Mortgage, First Horizon Home Loans, Franklin American Mortgage Company, and IndyMac.
How about in 2018?
Wells Fargo, Chase, Quicken Loans, PennyMac Financial, United Wholesale Mortgage, Bank of America Home Loans, U.S. Bank Home Mortgage, Caliber Home Loans, Amerihome Mortgage, loanDepot.com, Flagstar Bank, Freedom Mortgage, Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp., Guaranteed Rate Inc., SunTrust Mortgage, Nationstar Mortgage, Citizens Bank, Guild Mortgage, Stearns Lending LLC, and Navy Federal Credit Union.
Recognize some ghosts?
Capital markets: rates, as always, up some, down some
Yesterday was yet another volatile day in rates and MBS as rates staged another breakout to higher yields after shrugging off month-end buying and some weak data. While volatility remains elevated it also remains range-bound, and sentiment is that the Fed is finally finished with its historically aggressive pace of tightening.
On the data front, we received a weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing survey (Institute for Supply Management) for July as the manufacturing economy continues to contract. New Orders improved, and pricing pressures continue to fall. Supply delivery times decreased. Overall, the news on pricing should be good for the Fed, as it looks like its tightening policy is having the desired effect. There was also a smaller than expected increase in June Construction Spending (actual 0.5 percent) after increasing an upwardly revised 1.0 percent in May. Residential spending continues to be powered by new single-family construction to meet demand that cannot be satisfied through the existing home market.
Ahead of Friday’s payrolls report, job openings were 9.6 million at the end of June, according to the JOLTS report. Hires decreased to 5.9 million, with losses experienced in finance and manufacturing. The “quits” rate, which tends to forecast wage inflation, decreased to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent in June and 2.7 percent a year ago. The jobs market remains exceptionally tight but continues to show incremental signs of weakening. Job openings have fallen 20 percent since the Fed began tightening policy in March 2022, even with the unemployment rate trending sideways. Price growth still elevated and a pullback in demand for workers ongoing, a “soft landing” remains far from assured, but this is an encouraging step toward inflation subsiding without a recession.
Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications decreasing 3.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from MBA. We’ve also received ADP employment (324k, nearly twice as strong as expected! We’ll learn the U.S. Treasury details of the Quarterly Refunding (3-year notes, 10-year notes, and 30-year bonds) where we can expect amounts to increase from previous auctions in the face of a Fitch downgrade of U.S. debt. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Tuesday and the 10-year yielding 4.04 after closing yesterday at 4.05 percent; the 2-year is at 4.90, showing no impact of Fitch’s opinion of U.S. debt. Much ado about nothing?
Jobs and transitions
“FLCBank is looking for seasoned Wholesale Account Executives in the northeast, southeast, central, and northwest regions. If you are looking to make a move and join a company with a tenured culture of collaboration, team-based success, and the security of working for a federally chartered national bank, then it’s time to call Bob Eisendrath, Strategic National Account Manager (414.350.3986). FLCBank is an agency-approved lender, offering a suite of Jumbo products with IO, fixed, and ARM options, as well as bank portfolio products like bridge loans. Our AEs work with Brokers, Non-Delegated Correspondents and have the opportunity to offer warehouse lines to your customers. FLCB cultivates a fun team environment where both sales and the operations staff are passionate about delivering exceptional customer experience with every loan. We offer competitive compensation, an energized culture, and seasoned operations and support staff. FLCBank is an Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action Employer.”
Do you have what it takes to be a mortgage superstar? Do you want to work with a lender that is leading the way in using AI to revolutionize the mortgage industry? If so, you need to check out Stockton Mortgage, a proud adopter of Lender Toolkit and its revolutionary solution, AI Underwriter™, which automates and applies underwriting conditions in 90 seconds or less. With just one click, you can review credit reports, income, assets, appraisals, loan data, fraud reports and more. Stockton Mortgage is using AI Underwriter to boost its productivity, quality, compliance, and find issues earlier in the process, delivering faster communication to Stockton’s customers. Stockton is looking for talented and ambitious professionals to join its team and grow with others on the team. If you’re ready to take your career to the next level and be part of the tech future of mortgage lending, visit Stockton’s website or contact the team today.
“Security National Mortgage Company (SNMC) has announced that Austin Jacks has joined the Company to serve as its Chief Marketing Officer. Mr. Jacks has over a decade of mortgage industry marketing experience focused on creating marketing products and building teams to enable loan originators to thrive. Mr. Jacks most recently served as the field marketing manager for Nations Lending. Joel Harward, SNMC’s SVP, stated, “Austin’s approach to modern marketing and his extensive experience will help us elevate awareness of the Company’s brand and expand its market share. His passion for marketing, strategic focus, and creativity will make him a great addition to the SNMC team. We are confident that Austin will play a key role in SNMC’s continued growth and success.” If you are interested to find out why Austin Jacks joined SNMC and why “It is Better Here”, please check us out here.”
How many ads for mortgages have you seen like this ad for mobile homes?
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The Jefferson Avenue commercial district in Buffalo, New York, is anchored by a supermarket.
There are dozens of other businesses and services along the 12-block corridor — a couple of bank branches, a library, a coffee shop, gas stations, a small plaza with a dollar store and a primary care clinic and a business incubator for entrepreneurs of color.
But Tops Friendly Markets, the only grocery store on Buffalo’s vast East Side, is the center of activity. More than just a place to buy food, pick up medications and use an ATM, the store is a communal gathering space in a predominantly Black neighborhood that, for generations, has been segregated, isolated and disenfranchised from the wealthier — and whiter — parts of the city.
Which explains how it came to be the site of a mass shooting on a spring day in May of last year. On that Saturday, a gunman, who lived 200 miles away in another part of the state, drove to Jefferson Avenue and went into Tops, and in just a few minutes killed 10 people, injured three and inflicted mass trauma across the community.
It is a scenario that has sadly, and repeatedly, played out in other parts of the country that have experienced mass shootings. But this one came with a twist: The gunman’s intention was to kill as many Black people as possible.
To achieve that, he specifically targeted a ZIP code with one of the highest percentages of Black residents in New York state. All 10 who died that day were Black.
“The mere fact that someone can research, ‘Where will the greatest number of Black people be … on a Saturday morning,’ that’s not by chance,” said Franchelle Parker, a community organizer and executive director of Open Buffalo, a nonprofit focused on racial, economic and ecological justice. “That’s not a mistake. It’s a community that’s been deeply segregated for decades.”
The day of the shooting, Parker, who grew up in nearby Niagara Falls, was driving to Tops, where she planned to buy a donut and an unsweetened iced tea before heading into the Open Buffalo office, which is located a block away from Tops. The mother of two had intended to complete the mundane task of cleaning up her desk — “old coffee cups and stuff” — after a busy week.
She saw the news on Twitter and didn’t know if she should keep driving to Jefferson Avenue or turn around and go back home. She eventually picked the latter.
When she showed up the next day, there were thousands of people grieving in the streets. “The only way that I could explain my feeling, it was almost like watching an old war movie when a bomb had gone off and someone’s in, like, shell shock. That’s how it felt,” said Parker, vividly recounting the community’s collective trauma in a meeting room tucked inside of Open Buffalo’s second-story office on Jefferson Avenue.
Almost immediately following the May 14, 2022, massacre, which was the second-deadliest mass shooting in the United States last year, conversations locally and nationally turned to the harsh realities of the East Side and how long-standing factors that affect the daily life of residents — racism, poverty and inequity — made the community an ideal target for a white supremacist.
Now, more than a year after the tragedy, there is growing concern that not enough is being done fast enough to begin to dismantle those factors. And amid those conversations, there are mounting calls for the banking industry — whose historical policies and practices helped cement the racial segregation and disinvestment that ultimately shaped the East Side — to leverage its collective power and influence to band together in an effort to create systemic change.
The ideas about how banks should support the East Side and better embed themselves in the neighborhood vary by people and organizations. But the basic argument is the same: Banks, in their role as financiers and because of the industry’s history of lending discrimination, are obligated to bring forth economic prosperity in disinvested communities like the East Side.
I know banks are often looked upon sort of like a panacea, but I don’t particularly see it that way. I think others have a role to play in all of this.
Chiwuike Owunwanne, corporate responsibility officer at KeyBank
“Banks have been very good at providing charitable contributions to the Black community. They get an ‘A’ for that,” said The Rev. George Nicholas, an East Side pastor who is also CEO of the Buffalo Center for Health Equity, a four-year-old enterprise focused on racial, geographic and economic health disparities. “But doing the things that banks can do in terms of being a catalyst for revitalization and investment in this community, they have not done that.”
To be sure, banks’ ability to reverse the course of the community isn’t guaranteed — and there is no formula to determine how much accountability they should hold to fix deeply entrenched problems like racism. Several Buffalo-area bankers said that while the Tops shooting heightened the urgency to help the East Side, the industry itself cannot be the sole driver of change.
“There are a lot of institutions … that can certainly play a part in reversing the challenges that we see today,” said Chiwuike “Chi-Chi” Owunwanne, a corporate responsibility officer at KeyBank, the second-largest bank by deposits in Buffalo. “I know banks are often looked upon sort of like a panacea, but I don’t particularly see it that way. I think others have a role to play in all of this.”
A long history of segregation
How the East Side — and the Tops store on Jefferson Avenue — became the destination for a racially motivated mass murderer is a story about racism, segregation and disinvestment.
Even as it bears the nickname “the city of good neighbors,” Buffalo has long been one of the most racially segregated cities in the United States. Of the 114,965 residents who live on the East Side, 59% are Black, according to data from the 2021 U.S. Census American Community Survey. The percentage is even higher in the 14208 ZIP code, where the Tops store is located. In that ZIP code, among 11,029 total residents, nearly 76% are Black, the census data shows.
The city’s path toward racial segregation started in the early 20th century when a small number of job-seeking Black Americans migrated north to Buffalo, a former steel and auto manufacturing hub at the far northwestern end of New York state. Initially, they moved into the same neighborhoods as many of the city’s poorer immigrants and lived just east of what is today the city’s downtown district. As the number of Blacks arriving in Buffalo swelled in the 1940s, they were increasingly confronted with various housing challenges, including racist zoning laws and restrictive deed covenants that kept them from buying homes in more affluent white areas.
Black Buffalonians also faced housing discrimination in the form of redlining, the practice of restricting the flow of capital into minority communities. In 1933, as the Great Depression roiled the economy, a temporary federal agency known as the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation used government bonds to buy out and refinance mortgages of properties that were facing or already in foreclosure. The point was to try to stabilize the nation’s real estate market.
As part of its program, HOLC created maps of American cities, including Buffalo, that used a color coding scheme — green, blue, yellow and red — to convey the perceived riskiness of making loans in certain neighborhoods. Green was considered minimally risky; other areas that were largely populated by immigrant, Black or Latino residents were labeled red and thus determined to be “hazardous.”
“The goal was to free up mortgage capital by going to cities and giving banks a way to unload mortgages, so they could turn around and make more mortgage loans,” said Jason Richardson, senior director of research at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, an association of more than 750 community-based organizations that advocates for fair lending. “It was kind of a radical concept and it has evolved over the decades into our modern mortgage finance system.”
The Federal Housing Administration, which was established as a permanent agency in 1934, used similar methods to map urban areas and labeled neighborhoods from “A” to “D,” with “A” considered to be the most financially stable and “D” considered the least. Neighborhoods that were largely Black, even relatively stable ones, were put in the “D” category.
The result was that banks, which wanted to be able to sell mortgage loans to the FHA, were largely dissuaded from making loans in “risky” areas. And Buffalo’s East Side, where the majority of Blacks were settling, was deemed risky. Unable to get loans, Blacks couldn’t buy homes, start businesses or build equity. At the same time, large industrial factories on the East Side were closing or moving away, limiting job opportunities and contributing to rising poverty levels.
“Today what we’re left with is the residue of this process where we’ve enshrined … a pattern of economic segregation that favors neighborhoods that had fewer Black people in them and generally ignores neighborhoods that had African Americans living in them,” Richardson said.
Case in point: Research by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition shows that three-quarters of neighborhoods that were once redlined are low- to moderate-income neighborhoods today, and two-thirds of them are majority minority communities.
Adding to the division between Blacks and whites in Buffalo was the construction of a highway called the Kensington Expressway. Built during the 1960s, the below-grade, limited-access highway proved to be a speedy way for suburban workers to get to their downtown jobs. But its construction cut off the already-segregated East Side even more from other parts of the city, displacing residents, devaluing houses and destroying neighborhoods and small businesses.
As a result of those factors and more, many Black residents have become “trapped” on the East Side, according to Dr. Henry Louis Taylor Jr., a professor of urban and regional planning at the University at Buffalo. In 1987, Taylor founded the UB Center for Urban Studies, a research, neighborhood planning and community development institute that works on eliminating inequality in cities and metropolitan regions. In September 2021, eight months before the Tops shooting, the Center for Urban Studies published a report that compared the state of Black Buffalo in 1990 to present-day conditions. The conclusion: Nothing had changed for Blacks over 31 years.
As of 2019, the Black unemployment rate was 11%, the average household income was $42,000 and about 35% of Blacks had incomes that fell below the poverty line, the report said. It also noted that just 32% of Blacks own their homes and that most Blacks in the area live on the East Side.
“Those figures remain virtually unchanged while the actual, physical conditions that existed inside of the community worsened,” Taylor told American Banker in an interview in his sun-filled office at the center, located on the University at Buffalo’s city campus. “When we looked upstream to see what was causing it, it was clear: It was systemic, structural racism.”
Banks’ moral obligations
As the East Side struggled over the decades with rampant poverty, dilapidated housing, vacant lots and disintegrating infrastructure, banks kept a physical presence in the community, albeit a shrinking one. In mid-2000, there were at least 20 bank branches scattered across the East Side, but by mid-2022, the number had fallen to around 14, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s deposit market share data. The 14 include four new branches that have opened since early 2019 — Northwest Bank, KeyBank, Evans Bank and BankOnBuffalo.
The first two branches, operated by Northwest in Columbus, Ohio, and KeyBank, the banking subsidiary of KeyCorp in Cleveland, were requirements of community benefits agreements negotiated between each bank and the National Community Reinvestment Coalition. In both cases, Northwest and KeyBank agreed to open an office in an underserved community.
Evans Bank opened its first East Side branch in the fall of 2021. The office is located in the basement of an $84 million affordable senior housing building that was financed by Evans, a $2.1 billion-asset community bank headquartered south of Buffalo in Angola, New York.
Banks have been very good at providing charitable contributions to the Black community. They get an ‘A’ for that. But doing the things that banks can do in terms of being a catalyst for revitalization and investment in this community, they have not done that.
The Rev. George Nicholas, an East Side pastor who is also CEO of the Buffalo Center for Health Equity
On the community and economic development front, banks have had varying levels of participation. Buffalo-based M&T Bank, which holds a whopping 64% of all deposits in the Buffalo market and is one of the largest private employers in the region, has made consistent investments in the East Side by supporting Westminster Community Charter School, a kindergarten through eighth-grade school, and the Buffalo Promise Neighborhood, a nonprofit organization focused on improving access to education in the city’s 14215 ZIP code.
Currently, Buffalo Promise Neighborhood operates four schools. In addition to Westminster, it runs Highgate Heights Elementary, also K-8, as well as two academies that serve children ages six weeks through pre-kindergarten. Twelve M&T employees are dedicated to the program, according to the Buffalo Promise Neighborhood website. The bank has invested $31.5 million into the program since its 2010 launch, a spokesperson said.
Other banks are making contributions in other ways. In addition to the Jefferson Avenue branch and as part of its community benefits plan, Northwest Bank, a $14.2 billion-asset bank, supports a financial education center through a partnership with Belmont Housing Resources of Western New York. Meanwhile, the $198 billion-asset KeyBank gave $30 million for bridge and construction financing for Northland Workforce Training Center, a $100 million redevelopment project at a former manufacturing complex on the East Side that was partially funded by the state.
BankOnBuffalo’s East Side branch is located inside the center, which offers KeyBank training in advanced manufacturing and clean energy technology careers. A subsidiary of $5.6 billion-asset CNB Financial in Clearfield, Pennsylvania, BankOnBuffalo’s office opened a month after the shooting. The timing was coincidental, but important, said Michael Noah, president of BankOnBuffalo.
“I think it just cemented the point that this is a place we need to be, to be able to be part of these communities and this community specifically, and be able to build this community up,” Noah said.
In terms of public-private collaboration, some banks have been involved in a deeper way. In 2019, New York state, which had already been pouring $1 billion into Buffalo to help revitalize the economy, announced a $65 million economic development fund for the East Side. The initiative is focused on stabilizing neighborhoods, increasing homeownership, redeveloping commercial corridors including Jefferson Avenue, improving historical assets, expanding workforce training and development and supporting small businesses and entrepreneurship.
In conjunction with the funding, a public-private partnership called East Side Avenues was created to provide capital and organizational support to the projects happening along four East Side commercial corridors. Six banks — Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America, the second-largest bank in the nation with $2.5 trillion of assets; M&T, which has $203 billion of assets; KeyBank; Warsaw, New York-based Five Star Bank, which has about $6 billion of assets; Northwest and Evans — are among the 14 private and philanthropic organizations that pledged a combined $8.4 million to pay for five years’ worth of operational support, governance and finance, fundraising and technical assistance to support the nonprofits doing the work.
Laura Quebral, director of the University at Buffalo Regional Institute, which is managing East Side Avenues, said the banks were the first corporations to step up to the request for help, and since then have provided loans and other products and education to keep the program moving.
Their participation “is a signal to the community that banks cared and were invested and were willing to collaborate around something,” Quebral said. “Being at the table was so meaningful.”
Richard Hamister is Northwest’s New York regional president and former co-chair of East Side Avenues. Hamister, who is based in Buffalo, said banks are a “community asset” that have a responsibility to lift up all communities, including those where conditions have arisen that allow it to be a target of racism like the East Side.
“We operate under federal charters, so we have an obligation to the community to not only provide products and services they need but also support when you go through a tragedy like that,” Hamister said. “We also have a moral obligation to try to help when things are broken … and to do what we can. We can’t fix everything, but we’ve got to fix our piece and try to help where we can.”
In the wake of a tragedy
After the massacre, there was a flurry of activity within banks and other organizations, local and out-of-town, to respond to the immediate needs of East Side residents. With the community’s only supermarket closed indefinitely, much of the response centered around food collection and distribution. Three of M&T’s five East Side branches, including the Jefferson Avenue branch across the street from Tops, became food distribution sites for weeks after the shooting. On two consecutive Fridays, Northwest provided around 200 free lunches to the community, using a neighborhood caterer who is also the bank’s customer. And BankOnBuffalo collected employee donations that amounted to more than 20 boxes of toiletries and other items that were distributed to a nonprofit.
At the same time, M&T, KeyBank and other banks began financial donations to organizations that could support the immediate needs of the community. KeyBank provided a van that delivered food and took people to nearby grocery stores. Providence, Rhode Island-based Citizens Financial Group, whose ATM inside Tops was inaccessible during the store’s temporary closure, installed a fee-free ATM near a community center located about a half-mile north of Tops, and later put a permanent ATM inside the center that remains there today. And M&T rolled out a short-term loan program to provide capital to East Side small-business owners.
One of the funds that benefited from banks’ support was the Buffalo Together Community Response Fund, which has raised $6.2 million to address the long-term needs of the East Side.
Bank of America and Evans Bank each donated $100,000 to the fund, whose list of major sponsors includes four other banks — JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, M&T and KeyBank. Thomas Beauford Jr., a former banker who is co-chair of the response fund, said banks, by and large, directed their resources into organizations where the dollars would have an immediate impact.
“Banks said, ‘Hey, you know … it doesn’t make sense for us to try to build something right now. … We will fund you in the work you’re doing,'” said Beauford, who has been president and CEO of the Buffalo Urban League since the fall of 2020. “I would say banks showed up in a big way.”
Fourteen months later, banks say they are committed to playing a positive role on the East Side. For the second year, KeyBank is sponsoring a farmers’ market on the East Side, an attempt to help fill the food desert in the community. Last fall, BankOnBuffalo launched a mobile “bank on wheels” truck that’s stationed on the East Side every Wednesday. The 34-foot-long truck, which is staffed by two people and includes an ATM and a printer to make debit cards, was in the works before the shooting, and will eventually make four stops per week around the Buffalo area.
Evans has partnered with the city of Buffalo to construct seven market-rate single family homes on vacant lots on the East Side. The relationship with the city is an example of how banks can pair up with other entities to create something meaningful and lasting, more than they might be able to do on their own, said Evans President and CEO David Nasca.
The bank has “picked areas” where it can use its resources to make a difference, Nasca said.
“I don’t think the root causes can be ameliorated” by banks alone, he said. “We can’t just grant money. It has to be within our construct of a financial institution that invests and supports the public-private partnership. … All the oars [need to be] pulling together or this doesn’t work.”
‘Little or no engagement with minorities’
All of these efforts are, of course, welcomed by the community, but there is still criticism that banks haven’t done enough to make up for their past contributions to segregating the city. And perhaps more importantly, some of that criticism centers on banks failing to do their most basic function in society — provide credit.
In 2021, the New York State Department of Financial Services issued a report about redlining in Buffalo. The regulator looked at banks and nonbank lenders and found that loans made to minorities in the Buffalo metro area made up 9.74% of total loans in Buffalo. Overall, Black residents comprise about 33% of Buffalo’s total population of more than 276,000, census data shows.
The department said its investigation showed the lower percentage was not due to “excessive denials of loan applications based on race or ethnicity,” but rather that “these companies had little or no engagement with minorities and generally made scant effort to do so.”
“The unsurprising result of this has been that few minority customers or individuals seeking homes in majority-minority neighborhoods have made loan applications … in the first instance.”
Furthermore, accusations of redlining persist today, even though the practice of discriminating in housing based on race was outlawed by the Fair Housing Act of 1968.
In 2014, Evans was accused of redlining by the New York State Attorney General, which said the community bank was specifically avoiding making mortgage loans on the East Side. The bank, which at the time had $874 million of assets, agreed to pay $825,000 to settle the case, but Nasca maintains that the charges were unfounded. He points to the fact that the bank never had a fair lending or fair housing violation, no specific incidents were ever claimed and that the bank’s Community Reinvestment Act exam never found evidence of discriminatory or illegal credit practices.
The bank has a greater presence on the East Side today, but that’s because it has grown in size, not because it is trying to make up for previous accusations of redlining, he said.
“Ten years ago, our involvement [on the East Side] certainly wasn’t what you’re seeing today,” Nasca said. “We were looking to participate more, but we were participating within our means and our reach. As we have grown, we have built more resources to be able to do more.”
Shortly after accusations were made against Evans, Five Star Bank, the banking arm of Financial Institutions in Warsaw, New York, was also accused of redlining by the state Attorney General. Five Star, which has been growing its presence in the Buffalo market for several years, wound up settling the charges for $900,000 and agreeing to open two branches in the city of Rochester.
KeyBank is currently being accused of redlining by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition. In a 2022 report, the group said that KeyBank is engaging in systemic redlining by making very few home purchase loans in certain neighborhoods where the majority of residents are Black. Buffalo is one of several cities where the bank’s mortgage lending “effectively wall[ed] out Black neighborhoods,” especially parts of the East Side, the report said.
KeyBank denied the allegations. In March, the coalition asked regulators to investigate the bank’s mortgage lending practices.
Beyond providing more credit, some community members believe that banks should be playing a larger role in addressing other needs on the East Side. And the list of needs runs the gamut from more grocery stores to safe, affordable housing to infrastructure improvements such as street and sidewalk repairs.
Alexander Wright is founder of the African Heritage Food Co-op, an initiative launched in 2016 to address the dearth of grocery store options on the East Side, where he grew up. Wright said that while banks’ philanthropic efforts are important, banks in general “need to be in a place of remediation” to fix underlying issues that the industry, as a whole, helped create. (After publication of this story, Wright left his job as CEO of the African Heritage Food Co-Op.)
Aside from charitable donations, banks should be finding more ways to work directly with East Side business owners and entrepreneurs, helping them with capital-building support along the way, Wright said. One place to start would be technical assistance by way of bank volunteers.
“Banks are always looking to volunteer. ‘Hey, want to come out and paint a fence? Want to come out and do a garden?'” Wright said. “No. Come out here and help Keshia with bookkeeping. Come out here and do QuickBooks classes for folks. Bring out tax experts. Because these are things that befuddle a lot of small businesses. Who is your marketing person? Bring that person out here. Because those are the things that are going to build the business to self-sufficiency.
“Anything short of the capacity-building … that will allow folks to rise to the occasion and be self-sufficient I think is almost a waste,” Wright added. “We don’t need them to lead the plan. What we need them to do is be in the community and [be] hearing the plan and supporting it.”
Parker, of Open Buffalo, has similar thoughts about the role that banks should play. One day, soon after the massacre, an ATM appeared down the street from Tops, next to the library that sits across the street from Parker’s office. Soon after the ATM was installed, Parker began fielding questions from area residents who were skeptical of the machine and wanted to know if it was legitimate. But Parker didn’t have any information to share with them. “There was no outreach. There was no community engagement. So I’m like, ‘Let me investigate,'” she said. “I think that’s a symptom of how investment is done in Black communities, even though it may be well-intentioned.”
As it turns out, the temporary ATM belonged to JPMorgan Chase. The megabank has had a commercial banking presence in Buffalo for years, but it didn’t operate a retail branch in the region until last year. Today it has four branches in operation and plans to open another two by the end of the year, a spokesperson said.
After the Tops shooting, the governor’s office reached out to Chase asking if the bank could help in some way, the spokesperson said in response to the skepticism. The spokesperson said that while the Chase retail brand is new to the Buffalo region, the company has been active in the market for decades by way of commercial banking, private banking, credit card lending, home lending and other businesses.
In addition to the ATM, the bank provided funding to local organizations including FeedMore Western New York, which distributes food throughout the region.
“We are committed to continuing our support for Buffalo and helping the community increase access to opportunities that build wealth and economic empowerment,” the spokesperson said in an email.
In the year since the massacre, there has been some progress by banks in terms of their interest in listening to the East Side community and learning about its needs, said Nicholas. But he hasn’t felt an air of urgency from the banking community to tackle the issues right now.
“I do experience banks being a little more open to figuring out what their role is, but it’s slow. It’s slow,” said Nicholas. The senior pastor of the Lincoln Memorial United Methodist Church, located about a mile north from Tops, Nicholas is part of a 13-member local advisory committee for the New York arm of Local Initiatives Support Coalition, or LISC. The group is focused on mobilizing resources, including banks, to address affordable housing in Western New York, specifically in the inner city, as well as training minority developers and connecting them to potential investors, Nicholas said.
Of the 13 members, seven are from banks — one each from M&T, Bank of America, BankOnBuffalo, Evans and KeyBank, and two members from Citizens Financial Group. One of the priorities of LISC NY is health equity, and the fact that banks are becoming more engaged in looking at health disparities is promising, Nicholas said. Still, they have more work to do, he said.
“I need them to think more on how to strengthen and build the economy on the East Side and provide leadership around that, not only to provide charitable things, but using sound business and banking and community development principles to say, ‘OK, if we’re going to invest in this community, these are the types of things that need to happen in this community,’ and then encourage their partners and other people they work with … to come fully in on the East Side.”
Some bankers agree with the community activists.
“Putting a branch in is great. Having a bank on wheels is great,” said Noah of BankOnBuffalo. “But if you’re not embedded in the community, listening to the community and trying to improve it, you’re not creating that wealth and creating a better lifestyle for everyone.”
What could make a substantial difference in terms of banks’ impact on the community is a combination of collaboration and leadership, said Taylor. He supports the idea of banks leading the charge on the creation of a comprehensive redevelopment and reinvestment plan for the East Side, and then investing accordingly and collaboratively through their charitable foundations.
“All of them have these foundations,” Taylor said. “You can either spend that money in a strategic and intentional way designed to develop a community for the existing population, or you can spend that money alone in piecemeal, siloed, sectorial fashion that will look good on an annual report, but won’t generate transformational and generational changes inside a community.”
Banks might be incentivized to work together because it could mean two things for them, according to Taylor: First, they’d have an opportunity to spend money in a way that would have maximum impact on the East Side, and second, if done right, the city and the banks could become a model of the way to create high levels of diversity, equity and inclusion in an urban area.
“If you prove how to do that, all that does is open up other markets of consumption all over the country because people want to figure out how to do that same thing,” Taylor said.
Some of that is already happening, at least on a bank-by-bank case, said KeyBank’s Owunwanne. Through the KeyBank Foundation, the company is able to leverage different relationships that connect nonprofits to other entities and corporations that can provide help.
“I see this as an opportunity for us to make not just incremental changes, but monumental changes … as part of a larger group,” Owunwanne said “Again, I say that not to absolve the bank of any responsibility, but just as a larger group.”
Downstairs from Parker’s office, Golden Cup Coffee, a roastery and cafe run by a husband and wife team, and some other Jefferson Avenue businesses are trying to build up a business association for existing and potential Jefferson-area businesses. Parker imagined what the group could accomplish if one of the banks could provide someone on a part-time basis to facilitate conversations, provide administrative support and coordinate marketing efforts.
“In the grand scheme of things, when we’re talking about a multimillion dollar [bank], a part-time employee specifically dedicated to relationship-building and building out coalitions, it sounds like a small thing,” Parker said. “But that’s transformational.”
Current mortgage rates are moving a little higher this morning after some better than expected economic data.
We could see mortgage rates continue to adjust tomorrow morning when we get the monthly jobs report for December.
Anyone looking to buy or refinance should pay attention to what happens after that release. Read on for more details.
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Market Outlook 1.2.18 from Total Mortgage on Vimeo.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Rates up a little today
It’s a snowy day for most of the East Coast, but that’s not stopping financial markets from getting on with the day’s events.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Aug. 1, 2023).
If we take a look at the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (which is the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are going), we can see that it’s up about three basis points from where it started the day.
That rise seems mostly due to a stronger than expected headline reading in the ADP employment report this morning. That report showed that 250,000 jobs were added in December, compared to the 180,000 that analysts had expected.
The ADP report is always the precursor the the main event, the Employment Situation report, which gets released the following day. The two reports don’t always align, but that doesn’t stop investor optimism after a strong ADP report.
If we do get a strong monthly jobs report tomorrow morning that would certainly put further upward pressure on Treasury yields and mortgage rates as market participants move out of bonds and into riskier assets such as stocks.
Rate/Float Recommendation
Lock now while rates are low
Mortgage rates are gradually moving higher, which is something we’ve been expecting, and believe will continue to to happen over the coming weeks and months.
Given this expectation, we believe that it makes the most sense for anyone trying to buy a home or refinance their current mortgage to lock in a rate sooner rather than later.
Click here to head to our Mortgage Builder and figure out how much you could save.
Today’s economic data:
ADP Employment Report
The ADP employment report showed that 250,000 jobs were added in December.
Jobless Claims
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits came in at 250,000 for the week of 12/30. The four-week moving average is now at 241,750.
PMI Services Index
The PMI services index hit a 53.7 for December.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
For the week of 12/29:
Crude oil: -4.6 M barrels
Gasoline: 0.6 M barrels
Distillates: 1.1 M barrels
Fedspeak
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will speak at 1:30pm.
Get the GreenLight and close in 21 days*
Notable events this week:
Monday:
Markets Closed: New Year’s Day
Tuesday:
PMI Manufacturing Index
Wednesday:
ISM Mfg Index
Construction Spending
FOMC Minutes
Thursday:
ADP Employment Report
Jobless Claims
PMI Services Index
EIA Petroleum Status Report
Fedspeak
Friday:
Employment Situation
International Trade
Factory Orders
ISM Non-Mfg Index
Fedspeak
*Terms and conditions apply.
Carter Wessman
Carter Wessman is originally from the charming town of Norfolk, Massachusetts. When he isn’t busy writing about mortgage related topics, you can find him playing table tennis, or jamming on his bass guitar.
The west coast is currently being ravaged by wildfires, including five of the top ten largest wildfires in California history so far. These devastating fires have burned down hundreds of millions of acres of land, resulting in at least 36 casualties and the loss of homes, businesses, and other structures. The entire west coast is experiencing unhealthy air quality, and smoke has reached as far as the east coast and even Europe.
Aside from the immediate consequences in terms of property damage and loss of life, wildfires also have a far-reaching economic impact. From the ongoing costs related to fire suppression and prevention to the loss of revenue, expensive repairs, and insurance hikes that inevitably follow, these fires have lasting financial repercussions.
The current wildfires will have an economic impact on both a local and a national level. While states including California, Oregon, and Washington are some of the most likely to be affected by wildfires, the financial fallout has the potential to be even more widespread.
What’s Ahead:
Fire suppression costs are rising
Battling wildfires is an expensive business, and the cost to fight fires has soared from tens of millions to hundreds of millions in recent years as destructive wildfires have become more and more common.
With 2020 on track to be one of the most devastating wildfire seasons on record, the cost just to get fires under control continues to climb.
You’ll see insurance hikes
As wildfires become more common in areas across the western United States, homeowners insurance and fire insurance is getting more expensive as a result. Some homeowners who live in fire-prone areas are unable to secure insurance coverage at all, with insurance companies canceling policies in high-risk areas.
Those who are able to secure insurance will likely face increased premiums as insurance companies attempt to cover the costs of current and future wildfire seasons.
If you live in an at-risk area for wildfires, you need to make sure you have the right insurance in place to cover all of your bases. Policygenius can help you double-check that you have the right type and amount of coverage for your home – and that you’re paying the best price for it.
Temporary power cuts have affected businesses
Power companies like Pacific Gas & Electric have implemented temporary planned power shutoffs in areas where its equipment is in danger of sparking wildfires. PG&E equipment has sparked over 1,500 fires from 2014 to 2017, and officials expect continued power cuts to be a regular feature of fire seasons to come.
These power cuts can have a negative economic impact when they prevent individuals and businesses from operating as normal. While the company is working toward implementing smaller, less disruptive cuts than the power outages that caused multi-day blackouts in 2018, power cuts will still affect tens of thousands of California residents.
Businesses are also seeing a loss of revenue
The wildfires sweeping across much of the western part of the country also have a severe impact when it comes to the loss of revenue. Many businesses aren’t able to operate normally or at all, and may find it difficult to reopen in the aftermath of the fires while also dealing with other issues such as the pandemic.
Wildfires also decrease the revenue brought in by tourism, which affects everything from restaurants and small businesses to hotels and state parks.
Expensive repairs will be needed
Costly repairs will be necessary for areas where wildfires have burned down buildings and damaged infrastructure. The 2018 wildfire season caused over $40 billion worth of damage, and the 2020 season is on track to cause even more damage.
The cost of the repairs is felt both by individuals whose property has been damaged as well as government agencies responsible for repairing infrastructure and cleaning up debris.
Healthcare costs will rise for those impacted by the fires
Other indirect costs of the wildfires include the healthcare costs associated with treating injuries related to the disaster. This includes treating not only those who were directly injured by the fires themselves, but also those who inhale too much smoke and those who are injured in accidents while evacuating.
Extreme wildfires cause hazardous air quality that can lead to coughs, headaches, and shortness of breath in the short term, and chronic inflammation, heart attacks, and strokes in the long term. Those with preexisting conditions like asthma or compromised immune systems are especially vulnerable.
Economic instability may increase
A report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission predicts that the increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters like wildfires could result in further economic instability. These disasters can have a negative impact on many disparate areas of the economy including agriculture, infrastructure, residential and commercial property, and the health and wellbeing of American citizens.
Wildfire prevention costs will rise
While strategies implemented to help prevent or curb future wildfires like controlled burns and thinning are necessary, they’re also expensive. California recently passed a bill dedicating $1 billion toward fire prevention over the course of five years, but experts warn that even that amount may not be enough to curtail future fires.
There are many personal costs as well
While it’s not an easy thing to affix a number to, increasingly devastating wildfire seasons also take a tremendous personal toll, from people grieving lost loved ones to those whose houses burned down to those dealing with anxiety and depression caused by the fires.
These losses are often exacerbated by compounding issues like the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, economic inequality, and the effects of climate change.
How to protect your finances from the impact of natural disasters
Experts predict that wildfires and other natural disasters like heat waves and hurricanes will only become more prevalent as climate change continues to accelerate. People all over the world will be negatively affected by these catastrophic events – especially if they live in places with a high risk of fire, floods, or other disasters.
Here are some steps to take in order to prepare for future disasters and keep your finances secure in the face of an increasingly uncertain world.
Make sure you have the right insurance coverage
Insurance coverage for your property is especially important if you live in an area that may be at risk of wildfires. Even if you already have insurance, it’s still a good idea to shop around and compare different policies in order to ensure that you’re getting a good deal.
Again, online tools like Policygenius make it easy to research and compare different insurance options.
Maintain a healthy emergency fund
Experts recommend that you save between three and six months worth of living expenses in an emergency fund. This financial cushion can be a major safety net when it comes to literal emergencies like wildfires as well as other unexpected expenses.
While it can be difficult to increase your savings in a time of increasing economic inequality, it’s a good idea to try to put a little away each month so that you have something to fall back on in case of hard times.
Pack an emergency bag and it keep it up to date
If you live in an area that is prone to natural disasters, you should pack an emergency bag and keep it up to date, including essential such as:
First aid kit.
Drinking water.
Non-perishable food.
A change of comfortable clothes.
Toiletries.
Medications.
Cash.
Mask.
Radio.
Flashlight.
Local maps.
Phone charger and extra battery pack.
Be sure to keep your bag up to date and to swap out any items that are too old or in danger of expiring. You may want to prepare several kits to keep with you at home, in your car, and any other place you spend a lot of time in, such as your workplace or a relative’s house.
Secure important documents
Replacing important documents can be stressful if you have to leave your house during an emergency. You should keep documents in a secure, safe place that you can access quickly if you need to.
Some important documents you may want to take with you include your social security card, birth certificate, passport, and insurance information.
When it comes to other documents like bills and financial statements, consider switching to paperless billing so that you’re able to access them electronically in the case of an emergency.
See if your qualify for tax relief or other forms of aid
If you’ve experienced financial losses due to a federally declared disaster, you may be able to deduct it on your taxes. There are also a variety of wildfire relief funds and resources available, including:
The Disaster Cash Assistance Program for Washington state residents.
Disaster loan assistance for business owners from the SBA.
FEMA Disaster Assistance.
Red Cross shelters for those impacted by natural disasters.
The California Association of Food Banks.
Masks, medicine, and other resources from Direct Relief.
Disaster Unemployment Assistance for California residents.
Summary
Some experts estimate that the damage caused by the 2020 wildfire season will have a direct cost of over $20 billion, not including the many indirect costs associated with the fires, such as insurance hikes and loss of revenue. As wildfires continue to increase due to drought, warmer temperatures, and shorter winters, they are sure to have far-reaching effects on the economy.
While many aspects of natural disasters are beyond your control, you can stay prepared by reviewing your insurance coverage, packing an emergency bag, and building up your emergency fund.
A report released by the Boston Fed last week found that home price depreciation is a leading cause of mortgage default, challenging common arguments that attribute rising delinquencies to unaffordable mortgage payments.
“We find that the DTI ratio at the time of origination is not a strong predictor of future mortgage default,” the report said. “A simple theoretical model explains this result.”
“While a higher monthly payment makes default more likely, other factors, such as the level of house prices, expectations of future house price growth and intertemporal variation in household income, matter as well.”
The economists estimated that a 10 percentage-point increase in the debt-to-income ratio increases the probability of 90-day delinquency by just seven to 11 percent.
Conversely, a one percentage-point increase in unemployment rate raises this probability by 10-20 percent, and a 10 percent fall in house prices raises it by more than half.
Their findings are important, given the fact that streamlined loan modification programs currently on offer focus on getting a struggling borrower’s housing payment down to a specific debt ratio.
It may also explain why re-default rates are exceedingly high, and puts into question the benefit of a loan modification versus foreclosure.
“Investors also lose money when they modify mortgages for borrowers who would have repaid anyway, especially if modifications are done en masse, as proponents insist they should be,” the report noted.
“Moreover, the calculation ignores the possibility that borrowers with modified loans will default again later, usually for the same reason they defaulted in the first place. These two problems are empirically meaningful and can easily explain why servicers eschew modification in favor of foreclosure.”
And though “contract frictions” between investors and servicers may explain why so few loan modifications have been carried out, the belief that such loss mitigation efforts aren’t more financially beneficial than foreclosure may also be a contributing factor.
The report said loan modification efforts should focus on addressing job loss and other adverse life events, rather than making loans more “affordable” on a long-term basis.
“For example, the government could replace a portion of lost income for a period of one or two years, through a program of loans or grants to individual homeowners.”
“For more permanent and very large setbacks, a good policy might help homeowners transition to rentership through short sales or other procedures.”
Of course, I don’t know if these proposals would actually offset the fact that a home is no longer viewed as an investment, which seems to be why many borrowers are throwing in the towel.
The monthly jobs report for December fell a little short of what was expected, so that took some upward pressure off of mortgage rates today.
We still think, however, that mortgage rates will continue to rise over the coming weeks and months. If you’re thinking of a purchase or refinance, you should try to act soon. Read on for more details.
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Market Recap 1.5.18 from Total Mortgage on Vimeo.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Rates flat after soft jobs report
Well, we made it to the first Friday of the month and that means the monthly jobs report got released. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 148,000 private sector jobs were added in December.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Jul. 31, 2023).
That’s well below the 191,000 that analysts had expected, but the report isn’t a total disappointment, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings increasing by 0.3%.
In the end, it’s kind of a wash with the good and bad adding up to a big nothing-burger in the markets. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are going) is up a little over one basis point right now.
Mortgage rates typically move in the same direction as the 10-year yield, so rates are flat to ever so slightly higher as we approach the weekend.
Rate/Float Recommendation
Lock now while rates are low
Today’s monthly jobs report showed enough strength to push Fed officials into raising rates at upcoming FOMC meetings. Therefore, our outlook remains for mortgage rates to rise over the coming months.
It only makes sense then, that anyone looking to buy a home or refinance should try to lock in a rate sooner rather than later.
Click here to head to our Mortgage Builder and figure out how much you could save.
Today’s economic data:
Employment Situation
The monthly jobs report for December showed 148,000 jobs were added. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.
International Trade
The nation’s trade deficit widened to $50.5 billion in November.
Factory Orders
Factory orders for November rose 1.3%.
ISM Non-Mfg Index
The composite index for December came in at a 55.9. That’s a little lower than expectations.
Fedspeak
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester at 12:30pm.
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Notable events this week:
Monday:
Markets Closed: New Year’s Day
Tuesday:
PMI Manufacturing Index
Wednesday:
ISM Mfg Index
Construction Spending
FOMC Minutes
Thursday:
ADP Employment Report
Jobless Claims
PMI Services Index
EIA Petroleum Status Report
Fedspeak
Friday:
Employment Situation
International Trade
Factory Orders
ISM Non-Mfg Index
Fedspeak
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Carter Wessman
Carter Wessman is originally from the charming town of Norfolk, Massachusetts. When he isn’t busy writing about mortgage related topics, you can find him playing table tennis, or jamming on his bass guitar.
Mortgage rates ease as Bank of England’s bitter medicine shows signs of working
Phillip Inman
Fixed deals edge down as the City predicts that interest rates are nearing their peak and the UK economy cools
Several of the nation’s biggest lenders cut rates on their fixed mortgage deals last week, in a sign of mounting expectations that the Bank of England may be nearing the end of an aggressive cycle of interest rate rises.
Next week, the Bank is expected to push up interest rates for a 14th consecutive time from 5% to 5.25%, with financial markets betting that they will peak at 5.75% by the end of the year. Many analysts expect this will mark the end of a cycle of interest rate rises that began in December 2021, giving the major lenders some confidence that previous fears of a 6.5% peak were overdone.
Nationwide, Barclays, HSBC and TSB have all announced in recent days that they would be cutting rates on fixed-rate mortgage deals, as competition for borrowers helped to drive down the cost of some deals. The average rate on a two-year fixed mortgage deal edged lower on Friday to 6.81% compared with 6.86% on Wednesday, according to Moneyfacts data.
The turning point in expectations for interest rates came earlier this month, when the latest official figures showed inflation fell more than anticipated in June to 7.9% from an unexpectedly sticky rate of 8.7% in May. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, and is closely watched by the Bank of England, also fell back to 6.9% from a 30-year high of 7.1% in May.
City economists said the likelihood of declining wage growth (which was 7.3% in the three months to May compared with a year earlier) and further sharp falls in inflation later in the year meant a rise in interest rates in September to 5.5% or possibly 5.75% would prove the high-water mark.
Mortgage providers have bet that rates will peak at a lower point than previously expected, and HMRC figures show that homebuyers have returned to the housing market, ending speculation of a collapse in prices.
Lower mortgage costs correlate with an outlook for the economy that comes close to stagnation. Gross domestic product fell in May by 0.1% after growth in April of 0.2%. Consumer spending has started to slip and retailers are feeling the pain.
The Bank of England, when it considers further rate rises in the autumn, is likely to be only concerned about the tightness of the labour market and persistent wage growth, but there is a growing consensus that business sectors willing to increase wages are about to run out of steam.
Paul Dales, chief UK economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, says: “While there is probably enough inflationary pressure to prompt another hike at the following meeting in September, to 5.5%, we think that a mild recession and an easing in both wage growth and core inflation will prevent further hikes.”
George Buckley, chief UK economist at Nomura, says a change in the make-up of the nine-strong monetary policy committee will mean the peak could be 5.75%. One of the committee’s main critics of steep interest rate rises, the LSE professor Silvana Tenreyro, has left and been replaced by the financial expert Megan Greene, probably pushing it in a more hawkish direction, tending towards higher rates.
Dales says a likely recession will make cutting rates irresistible at the back end of next year. “When rates are eventually cut in late 2024 and in 2025, we think they will fall further than investors expect.”
Financial markets expect the Bank of England will keep rates above 5% into 2025.
Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at the consultancy Oxford Economics, says the economy is likely to experience “maximum pain” over the next six months and the first half of 2024. “There is a hump of people on two-year fixed-rate mortgages that they took out in 2021 and 2022. They will see a huge jump in monthly payments, forcing them to cut back on discretionary spending.
“The labour market will suffer, leading to a fall in wages growth and maybe higher unemployment. For the Bank of England, there will be quite a few signs the medicine is working,” he said.
Tracking housing inventory this summer is like watching a zombie slowly walking on the beach. Last week inventory growth dropped and new listing data declined again. Strong labor data pushed up mortgage rates and purchase applications fell week to week.
Weekly active listings rose by only 4,988
Mortgage rates rose from 6.99% to 7.12% before ending the week at 7.04%
Purchase apps were down 3% from week to week
Weekly housing inventory
For spring and summer, I wanted to see at least a few weeks where active listing grew by 11,000-17,000, which hasn’t happened recently. Two weeks ago we had some good movement with active listings growing almost 9,000, but last week that fell to just 4,988, and new listings data also fell.
Same week last year (July 22-July 29): Inventory rose from 525,548 to 538,908
The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 so far is 484,599
For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,207,493
As we can see below, housing inventory is growing at a slower pace this year, and active listings are now negative year over year versus 2022 levels.
More people tend to list their homes in the spring and summer months, which is why we need inventory to gain some traction before it hits a natural seasonal decline. Instead, new listings data had a small decline last week. As the chart below shows, new listing data has been trending below 2021 and 2022 levels for some time now and is trending at the lowest levels ever.
Here’s how new listings compares to the past few years:
2023: 62,478
2022: 74,076
2021: 81,053
The 10-year yield and mortgage rates
Last week we got another strong jobless claims report, which sent bond yields and mortgage rates higher (it wasn’t about the Fed raising rates). Also, the Bank of Japan raised the target for a line in the sand with their 10-year yield from 0.50% to 1.00, sending bond yields rising overnight. However, even with all that drama last week, we ended below 4% on the 10-year yield, and mortgage rates ranged from 6.99% to 7.12%.
In my 2023 forecast, I said that if the economy stays firm, the 10-year yield range should be between 3.21% and 4.25%, equating to mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25%. I believe the only way we get below 3.21% on the 10-year yield is for the labor market to break, and that would require jobless claims to get over 323,000 on the four-week moving average, which hasn’t happened. The economy has stayed firm, and jobless claims have been falling, not rising lately.
From the St. Louis Fed: Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits declined by 7,000 in the week ended July 22 to 221,000. The four-week moving average also fell to 233,750.
Seeing the jobless claims data, you can understand why the 10-year yield is in the upper portion of the forecast range for 2023 and why mortgage rates are still above 7%.
Purchase application data
Purchase application data was down 3% weekly, making the count year-to-date at 14 positive and 14 negative prints. If we start from Nov. 9, 2022, it’s been 21 positive prints versus 14 negative prints. However, since the middle of May, as mortgage rates have been near or above 7%, we have had more negative purchase application data prints than positive.
Even so, we aren’t seeing the big year-over-year declines we saw last year, primarily because we are working from historically low levels today. The fact that purchase application data isn’t collapsing like last year is why inventory is growing slower in 2023.
The week ahead: It’s jobs week!
We have a big week with labor data, job openings, the ADP report, jobless claims and the big one on Friday: the BLS jobs report! With the 10-year yield close to 4%, it will be a critical week for the bond market. If the labor data shows wage growth cooling down and being less tight, that can be very helpful for the bond market to head lower and drive down mortgage rates.
The housing market doesn’t need a week of hotter-than-expected labor data that might spook the Fed. Also, since we are getting closer toward the end of summer, it will be key to see at what point active housing inventory starts its seasonal decline.
Many predicted that COVID-19 would cause real estate markets to crash. But now, after one full year of economic uncertainty, U.S. housing markets seem hotter than ever. What gives? On today’s State of the Market podcast, Aaron and Matt Amuchastegui discuss what’s driving rapidly rising property values. Tune in and get their thoughts on whether or not we’re in a bubble. Plus, you’ll hear about the insane cost of lumber right now, the political implications of population shifts, and more.
Listen to today’s show and learn:
The insane cost of lumber right now [2:29]
Americans willing to pay more for existing homes than new builds [3:50]
Manhattanites opt for Brooklyn over Florida [6:54]
The political implications of population shifts [8:51]
Forbearance rates continue to drop [12:15]
Businesses report major labor shortages [15:20]
A potential fix for the unemployment problem [20:20]
Blockchain’s place in the real estate industry [23:22]
Matt’s advice for today’s homebuyers [25:36]
Final thoughts [27:10]
Matt Amuchastegui
Matt Amuchastegui has had the pleasure of working in many different industries and positions throughout his career. He has learned the trades of residential home building carpentry, construction management, commercialized construction such as building highway bridges and steel buildings, has worked in inside sales, worked as a purchasing manager, mortgage loan originator, held his real estate license in both California and Arizona, and finally he is currently working as a Real Estate Broker in the great state of Oregon.
Matt has been able to apply many skills from all of his past jobs, as well as his education from the University of Oregon to what he is currently doing. Matt prides himself in customer service and strives to make sure everyone that he works with, upon the completion of their transaction, feels as though he provided them with the utmost care, attention and customer service. It is also imperative that when he was involved with management and scheduling, that he built solid relationships with the employees and other contractors to help keep them on schedule and within their budget. Business, at any level, in Matt’s opinion is about respect and relationships.
Matt has enjoyed helping people find their dream homes and has also really enjoyed the business side of negotiating sales contracts. Learning to value homes and determine how much they were currently worth and would possibly be worth in the future was also something that served to be an asset for him. Having the opportunity to work in all fields related to home acquisition, sales and management has helped Matt to be versatile in his ability to take on any task!
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